The claim is that 8% of the time you will be essentially "even with the house"Originally Posted by Shadowless
and 92% of the time you are donating your money to the Casino owners ?
Whiskey. Tango. Foxtrot. ... "Do the Math"
It equates to a profit of ONE CENT on an (occasional) $25 bet.
How do you explain this post by Dieter.
https://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sh...339#post159339
His claim: "In order to find a vulnerability in a shuffle, you first need to understand the shuffle.
This is the case for any shuffle - hand, batch machine, or CSM."
Is he BSing? I brought up something about CSM in the previous post.
There are angles to use CSMs to one's advantage, as some here have suggested, but as far as outright beating the CSM with card counting or other non-cheating techniques, even if you could, why would you waste your time over such unfavorable conditions when there are plenty of far better games? If you get your kicks beating near impossible games, then I suggest you are not playing for the profit, but for the fun and challenge. Nothing wrong with that, I guess. Different strokes...
Aslan 11/1/90 - 6/15/10 Stormy 1/22/95 - 8/23/10... “Life’s most urgent question is: what are you doing for others?” — Martin Luther King, Jr.
If anyone does find a tested way to crush the CSM game, I assure you it won't be posted here... or anywhere. No one finds a lode of gold and then publishes a map for others to get there.
Aslan 11/1/90 - 6/15/10 Stormy 1/22/95 - 8/23/10... “Life’s most urgent question is: what are you doing for others?” — Martin Luther King, Jr.
If you're already in a casino it doesn't hurt to try.
For example, on the way to a DD or 6D game, waiting for a shuffle, between restroom breaks, before leaving, etc.
As far as going to a casino specifically to play a CSM, it's not worth it.
Since CSMs allow entry at any time, a player can choose to not play the 92% of the time and play only when there's a positive expectation.
It jumps to 0.14%, 0.22%, 0.29%, 0.43%, 0.49% at RC 6-10 respectively.
There's a 1 in 900 chance you will see a RC of 10 and will have a 0.49% edge for the next round.
It's definitely not worth waiting for or putting serious effort into, just another tool in the toolbox.
The returns are miniscule for something that occurs very infrequently.
If you would like to do some reading about it, Sonny has references here. Just scroll down to CSM.
https://www.blackjackinfo.com/knowle...#kb-post-21994
Play within your bankroll, pick your games with care and learn everything you can about the game. The winning will come. It has to. It's in the cards. -- Bryce Carlson
I'm not BS'ing. I'm also speaking rather abstractly.
I'm reasonably confident this is the case when you're building any play against a shuffle.
That said, I've never seen a random shuffle. I've heard (and believe) that if you have a good source of randomness, a Fisher-Yates shuffle can be truly random, in ways others cannot. Some of the newer "elevator" shufflers may be there - I think the PRNG in the newer models is significantly different than in some of the older models.
The basis for most plays against a shuffle is that some cards aren't fully mixed, so you have some knowledge of conditions when playing against a certain position in the deck.
My questions - are all the cards fully mixed? If not, which cards aren't? Is there a way to know when that group of cards is being dealt? Is there anything you can infer about that group of cards, based on other information?
May the cards fall in your favor.
I don't know much about CSMs other than what I have read but I think they clock the shuffle over a period of time.
I see from reading all these posts that some will refuse to admit the futility of playing CSMS (other than for certain benefits, such as, mailers) until the cows come home, as the expression goes. Personally, I face even so-called candy store games (the best rules, no heat, and deep pen) with some degree of trepidation, much less CSM games with the promise of miniscule gains as I think Flash put it. If I am in a casino and have time on my hands, I would rather play tic tax toe against myself than risk a nickel trying to make a gain on a CSM. What I am trying to say is, if playing with 1% to 2% edge is a dangerous sport, and I assure you it is, what would entice one to play with a "possibly" microscopic edge, other than the aforementioned mailers, etc? This is a board for advantage players, isn't it?
I don't find advantage in playing a CSM. I find it useful to analyze every game.
the-more-you-know.jpg
May the cards fall in your favor.
~10% advantage if you know the dealer's hole card.
~13% advantage if you know your first card will be a 10
~52% advantage if you know your first card will be an Ace.
The second question that should be asked once you know a game can be beaten: is it worth the time, money, energy, and effort to beat the game?
Beating different games should be approached in different ways, which some people refer to as the "grey area."
There's a quote that goes something along the lines of, "You can't use a screwdriver to hammer a nail."
In other words, using traditional card counting is not the right, nor only, approach for "beating" CSMs.
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