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Thread: Continuous Shuffle Machines can they be beaten?

  1. #27


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    Quote Originally Posted by Dieter View Post
    I'm not BS'ing. I'm also speaking rather abstractly.

    I'm reasonably confident this is the case when you're building any play against a shuffle.

    That said, I've never seen a random shuffle. I've heard (and believe) that if you have a good source of randomness, a Fisher-Yates shuffle can be truly random, in ways others cannot. Some of the newer "elevator" shufflers may be there - I think the PRNG in the newer models is significantly different than in some of the older models.

    The basis for most plays against a shuffle is that some cards aren't fully mixed, so you have some knowledge of conditions when playing against a certain position in the deck.

    My questions - are all the cards fully mixed? If not, which cards aren't? Is there a way to know when that group of cards is being dealt? Is there anything you can infer about that group of cards, based on other information?
    Beside theoretical and conceptual ideas that CSM blackjack games are beatable. Have you actually did the implementation and beat the CSM game in real casino play?

  2. #28
    Senior Member Aslan's Avatar
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    You realize of course that my comments on CSMs were predicated on card counting, not other kinds of AP which can be used effectively even against so-called carney games. If you are just interested in arguing, you came to the wrong place, but I only wish to be clear in what I am saying for the sake of anyone following this discussion.. Whatever gain I "might" be able to obtain from "counting" a CSM I will leave for others to pursue. IMHO it's not worth the effort. Other AP techniques are a different story.

  3. #29
    Senior Member Aslan's Avatar
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    It goes without saying that knowing the dealer's hole card or that you will receive an ace or ten on your hand will beat any game, even SD H17 50% pen 6:5. Beating a CSM by means of card counting alone, however, does not meet MW requirements, though some may be willing to work for even less.
    Last edited by Aslan; 06-19-2015 at 09:42 AM.

  4. #30


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    Quote Originally Posted by Aslan View Post
    You realize of course that my comments on CSMs were predicated on card counting, not other kinds of AP which can be used effectively even against so-called carney games. If you are just interested in arguing, you came to the wrong place, but I only wish to be clear in what I am saying for the sake of anyone following this discussion.. Whatever gain I "might" be able to obtain from "counting" a CSM I will leave for others to pursue. IMHO it's not worth the effort. Other AP techniques are a different story.
    No I am interested in learning how to beat CSM blackjack games the way Dieter has been describing and explore to see if it is practical or not. This why I am asking these questions. I occurs to me that some people can take serious questions.

  5. #31


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    If I were to attempt to do this, I would show up at a table with a baccarat score card and ask if I can keep track. If they say go for it, get your data. Record the order that cards are placed into the discard tray, every card rank and suit. Also record the order that cards come out of the machine (will be different.) I think there is only one way of beating this kind of shuffle that could possibly work, so figure out what it is and read up on it. Then see if you can find any of those patterns in your data. And if this post is the one that helped you put it all together, please share your results with me : ).

  6. #32
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Sorry, but that won't help.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  7. #33


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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Sorry, but that won't help.
    I tried to convince a fellow card counter of the same when it came to ASMs

    Although those things would be quite solvable (though extremely tedious, if not practically impossible) if they just ran on a RNG and you had a rough idea of certain aspects of the calculation, from what I understand, the machines are purely mechanical. With that said, you might as well be playing against a dealer that does a really fast hand shuffle. Sure you might be able to ST or AS but to expect that you could name the cards as they come out is, no offense to anyone, quite ridiculous.

    Did I get everything right?

  8. #34


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    Quote Originally Posted by seriousplayer View Post
    Have you actually did the implementation and beat the CSM game in real casino play?
    I have not. No CSM's near me, no point in my seeking them out.

    I trust the common theme of "the number 16 is involved", and I believe the play works, and I believe it's a razor thin edge at best - best suited to aiming for break-even.
    May the cards fall in your favor.

  9. #35


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    I saw a CSM opened up and it looks like all that happens is that the cards that are dropped in fall into slots. The slots revolve as cards are withdrawn. So there is very little shuffling going on and the same cards will appear together again albeit in the order that the game progresses. So this gave me an idea for a strategy. If one revolution of the machine is eight decks then why can't I count until I either have an advantage and play it, wang out or estimate that we've gone through a significant percentage of the shoe and move on to another table?

  10. #36
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    No, the cards will not appear together.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  11. #37


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    So are the cards being distributed into different slots as they are dropped in or do they just fill the next empty slot?

  12. #38
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Not a simple algorithm. But, no they are not dropped into an empty slot in order. That would be silly.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  13. #39


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    Quote Originally Posted by seriousplayer View Post
    Beside theoretical and conceptual ideas that CSM blackjack games are beatable. Have you actually did the implementation and beat the CSM game in real casino play?
    Well, I would say there are no CSM blackjack games, because with a CSM, it is no blackjack game anymore. It's not even a card game (because every card game I know uses discards which are out of play), but just a "card roulette", as I always call it when explaining why CSMs should be avoided.

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