You realize of course that my comments on CSMs were predicated on card counting, not other kinds of AP which can be used effectively even against so-called carney games. If you are just interested in arguing, you came to the wrong place, but I only wish to be clear in what I am saying for the sake of anyone following this discussion.. Whatever gain I "might" be able to obtain from "counting" a CSM I will leave for others to pursue. IMHO it's not worth the effort. Other AP techniques are a different story.
It goes without saying that knowing the dealer's hole card or that you will receive an ace or ten on your hand will beat any game, even SD H17 50% pen 6:5. Beating a CSM by means of card counting alone, however, does not meet MW requirements, though some may be willing to work for even less.
Last edited by Aslan; 06-19-2015 at 09:42 AM.
If I were to attempt to do this, I would show up at a table with a baccarat score card and ask if I can keep track. If they say go for it, get your data. Record the order that cards are placed into the discard tray, every card rank and suit. Also record the order that cards come out of the machine (will be different.) I think there is only one way of beating this kind of shuffle that could possibly work, so figure out what it is and read up on it. Then see if you can find any of those patterns in your data. And if this post is the one that helped you put it all together, please share your results with me : ).
I tried to convince a fellow card counter of the same when it came to ASMs
Although those things would be quite solvable (though extremely tedious, if not practically impossible) if they just ran on a RNG and you had a rough idea of certain aspects of the calculation, from what I understand, the machines are purely mechanical. With that said, you might as well be playing against a dealer that does a really fast hand shuffle. Sure you might be able to ST or AS but to expect that you could name the cards as they come out is, no offense to anyone, quite ridiculous.
Did I get everything right?
May the cards fall in your favor.
I saw a CSM opened up and it looks like all that happens is that the cards that are dropped in fall into slots. The slots revolve as cards are withdrawn. So there is very little shuffling going on and the same cards will appear together again albeit in the order that the game progresses. So this gave me an idea for a strategy. If one revolution of the machine is eight decks then why can't I count until I either have an advantage and play it, wang out or estimate that we've gone through a significant percentage of the shoe and move on to another table?
Well, I would say there are no CSM blackjack games, because with a CSM, it is no blackjack game anymore. It's not even a card game (because every card game I know uses discards which are out of play), but just a "card roulette", as I always call it when explaining why CSMs should be avoided.
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