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Thread: Lucky Ladies Variance

  1. #1


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    Lucky Ladies Variance

    I would like to know what is the variance of the lucky ladies side bet ( 8D 1000/200/25/10/4 payout ). I cant seem to find any answer on the net.

    Also,
    -What would be the index play using simple HiLo ?
    -What is the effect of removing a small card/ten valued card/QoH on EV ?

    Thanks

  2. #2


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    unfortunately I don't know of anywhere 8D information is published for LL. You have likely ran into 2/6D info with the two payouts. If you really want to know for yourself, you can find out running your own simulation using CVData.

    (Terminology LL10 is the payout schedule you're talking about LL9 is the other common one). For 6D LL10 the ev-maximizing index is it is +4/5 (depending who you ask) and +7 for LL9. Like I said, no one has published a straight answer to what you're looking for but perhaps what I just told you will give you an idea.

    Your second question can't be answered as is because the answer depends on a few variables, which I will list:
    -Payout schedule
    -Decks
    -Current Penetration (if you are talking about a EoR at a certain point rather than average)

    Your EV and variance are also dependent of those same variables.

    Elliot Jacobson says that any penetration worse than 7/8 would be "of dubious value to an AP", but take that with a grain a salt because I have the impression the standard he has for value for an AP is quite high because he has in mind someone who knows lots of different plays and has room to be picky.

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by NotEnoughHeat View Post
    unfortunately I don't know of anywhere 8D information is published for LL. You have likely ran into 2/6D info with the two payouts. If you really want to know for yourself, you can find out running your own simulation using CVData.

    (Terminology LL10 is the payout schedule you're talking about LL9 is the other common one). For 6D LL10 the ev-maximizing index is it is +4/5 (depending who you ask) and +7 for LL9. Like I said, no one has published a straight answer to what you're looking for but perhaps what I just told you will give you an idea.

    Your second question can't be answered as is because the answer depends on a few variables, which I will list:
    -Payout schedule
    -Decks
    -Current Penetration (if you are talking about a EoR at a certain point rather than average)

    Your EV and variance are also dependent of those same variables.

    Elliot Jacobson says that any penetration worse than 7/8 would be "of dubious value to an AP", but take that with a grain a salt because I have the impression the standard he has for value for an AP is quite high because he has in mind someone who knows lots of different plays and has room to be picky.
    Thanks Heat ! Sadly, I do not own CVData. I forgot to mention the game is 8D 75% pen and the payout schedule is LL10. I guess I will play LL on +5TC to be safe.

  4. #4


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    EoR Values

    Quote Originally Posted by apkevy View Post
    I would like to know what is the variance of the lucky ladies side bet ( 8D 1000/200/25/10/4 payout ). I cant seem to find any answer on the net.

    Also,
    -What would be the index play using simple HiLo ?
    -What is the effect of removing a small card/ten valued card/QoH on EV ?

    Thanks
    apkevy,

    Here are the Effect of Removal values for the 8D Lucky Ladies paytable you specified. By the way, the initial player edge is -16.73%.

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand

    Code:
    8D EoR Table B
    A 0.1275%
    2 0.4082%
    3 0.4082%
    4 0.4082%
    5 0.4082%
    6 0.4082%
    7 0.4082%
    8 0.4082%
    9 0.1661%
    10 -0.6795%
    J -0.6795%
    K -0.6795%
    Q scd -0.6795%
    Q h -2.4120%

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by Dog Hand View Post
    apkevy,

    Here are the Effect of Removal values for the 8D Lucky Ladies paytable you specified. By the way, the initial player edge is -16.73%.

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand

    Code:
    8D EoR Table B
    A 0.1275%
    2 0.4082%
    3 0.4082%
    4 0.4082%
    5 0.4082%
    6 0.4082%
    7 0.4082%
    8 0.4082%
    9 0.1661%
    10 -0.6795%
    J -0.6795%
    K -0.6795%
    Q scd -0.6795%
    Q h -2.4120%
    Thank you so much DogHand, so you happen to know the variance of the side bet so I can calculate it's standard deviation ? It's 8D 75% pen LL10.

  6. #6


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    Quote Originally Posted by Dog Hand View Post
    apkevy,

    Here are the Effect of Removal values for the 8D Lucky Ladies paytable you specified. By the way, the initial player edge is -16.73%.

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand
    I haven't ran into the EORs much at all for LL. Did you calculate these EORs yourself? If so do you mind giving the 6D EORs, if not do you mind posting the chart?

  7. #7


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    From Eliot's ap heat site.
    Card Counting the Lucky Ladies Side Bet
    http://apheat.net/2012/08/08/card-co...jack-side-bet/

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by Midwest Player View Post
    From Eliot's ap heat site.
    Card Counting the Lucky Ladies Side Bet
    http://apheat.net/2012/08/08/card-co...jack-side-bet/
    I had already read the part where it has info on the LL10, thanks tho

  9. #9


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    Quote Originally Posted by NotEnoughHeat View Post
    I haven't ran into the EORs much at all for LL. Did you calculate these EORs yourself? If so do you mind giving the 6D EORs, if not do you mind posting the chart?
    NotEnoughHeat,

    I calculated them by CA in Excel.

    Which payable would you like?

    Dog Hand

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by Dog Hand View Post
    NotEnoughHeat,

    I calculated them by CA in Excel.

    Which payable would you like?

    Dog Hand
    I would like to see the LL10 for 6D. LL10 is 1000/200/25/10/4.

    Thanks a lot

    Let me know if you need anymore info

    P.S. knowing the EORs for each Qh would be super useful too (first Qh compared to 2nd and 3rd). Ideally would like to use your information to side bet Qhs and adjust my main count (which I have been using for LL). Even if I can't achieve this result I would still value and appreciate the EORs greatly.

  11. #11


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    6D EoR for Lucky Ladies B

    Quote Originally Posted by NotEnoughHeat View Post
    I would like to see the LL10 for 6D. LL10 is 1000/200/25/10/4.

    Thanks a lot

    Let me know if you need anymore info

    P.S. knowing the EORs for each Qh would be super useful too (first Qh compared to 2nd and 3rd). Ideally would like to use your information to side bet Qhs and adjust my main count (which I have been using for LL). Even if I can't achieve this result I would still value and appreciate the EORs greatly.
    NotEnoughHeat,

    Here are the requested values:

    Code:
    6D EoR Table B
    A 0.1662%
    2 0.5390%
    3 0.5390%
    4 0.5390%
    5 0.5390%
    6 0.5390%
    7 0.5390%
    8 0.5390%
    9 0.2154%
    10 -0.9008%
    J -0.9008%
    K -0.9008%
    Q scd -0.9008%
    Q h -3.1052%
    Code:
    6D Paytable B
    Qh Gone EV ? EV
    0 -17.6391% 0.0000%
    1 -20.7442% -3.1052%
    2 -23.3904% -2.6461%
    3 -25.5693% -2.1789%
    4 -27.2727% -1.7034%
    5 -28.4920% -1.2194%
    6 -29.2189% -0.7269%
    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dog Hand View Post
    knowing the EORs for each Qh would be super useful too (first Qh compared to 2nd and 3rd).
    I don't know if you purposely ignored this but I was interested in how squishy the EOR for the Qh is as they are removed. I find these kinds of deck dependent EOR things fascinating and have made progress on systems that can more accurately predict advantage as the deck composition gets whacky. After all that is when we alter our bets. The more you understand how cards interact with the removal of any cards the more accurate you can bet and play. These kinds of things are not linear as is assumed.

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by Dog Hand View Post
    NotEnoughHeat,

    Here are the requested values:

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand
    Thank you, I feel like I have just been given the key to the hidden temple!

    If anyone else has advice on how to approach a side bet adjustment, given the information Dog Hand has provided, I would be interested in hearing.

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