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Thread: Just got rocked at the $50 table - question on standard deviation

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    Just got rocked at the $50 table - question on standard deviation

    Just got back from my local store - I was playing the $50 min, 2-deck, S17, DAS, 75% pen, using Hi-Lo w/ I18 (nice right?). I was spreading 1 - 3 (I don't sh.... where I eat), had a lot of high counts, played about 150 hands (1 hour and 1/2), and got my a... kicked - lost $1,500.

    Question - where was I in terms of standard deviation? Looking at the sim per the CVCX online resource, it says my standard deviation at this game should be 19.183 per hour. Need some help -what was the likelihood of a $1,500 loss? It will help me to better understand the CVCX sim resource and hopefully piece me back together for the next trip.

    Thanks, and by the way - I'm going back tomorrow to get it back... maybe spread 1-4 next time....

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    Wow Bigdaddy, going back for some more tomorrow eh? Tread lightly. How many other players were playing with you?

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    That's 10 top wagers. I don't know if that qualifies as "getting rocked".

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    Quote Originally Posted by KJ View Post
    That's 10 top wagers. I don't know if that qualifies as "getting rocked".
    If he had lost another $8500 that would have made it 2-of-a-kind and then he would know how it feels.

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    I'm going to say about a 13.5% likelihood.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Blitzkrieg View Post
    Wow Bigdaddy, going back for some more tomorrow eh? Tread lightly. How many other players were playing with you?
    Perfect conditions - just me and one other guy - probably played around an hour and got approx. 150 hands....

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    Quote Originally Posted by Shadowless View Post
    I'm going to say about a 13.5% likelihood.
    Sounds about right - somewhere between 1 and 2 std. deviations...I never thought it could happen to Bigdaddy...

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    Using round numbers (depends on your ramp), I make the per-hand win rate about $.60-$.65 and the per-hand s.d. about $100. If you played 150 hands, your e.v. was to win about $95, and your s.d. was about $1,225. To lose $1,500, when you were supposed to win $95 represents a negative s.d. of 1595/1225 = 1.30. This happens with probability 9.7%. So, clearly, not terribly unusual.

    Don

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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Using round numbers (depends on your ramp), I make the per-hand win rate about $.60-$.65 and the per-hand s.d. about $100. If you played 150 hands, your e.v. was to win about $95, and your s.d. was about $1,225. To lose $1,500, when you were supposed to win $95 represents a negative s.d. of 1595/1225 = 1.30. This happens with probability 9.7%. So, clearly, not terribly unusual.

    Don
    Thanks Don (and Shadowless) - makes sense. If I'm going to play this game, I need to get used to the bad-session possibilities. I guess I was just a little nervous about playing for higher stakes and then catching a bad wave. But I do have the bankroll and the skills ("Its just plastic, right?...)

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    Quote Originally Posted by KJ View Post
    That's 10 top wagers. I don't know if that qualifies as "getting rocked".
    Agree. A $1500 swing on a $50 min game is nothing unusual. If it bothers you, either you're over-betting your BR or have some composure work to do.
    At least you don't troll for responses by making your umpteenth post about rationalizing a deviation from BS.

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    Dealer said" As long as you can add 1 and minus 1 ,you can count cards". "well ,the swing is what you need to handle , wait tell you lose 20 top bets in an hour." I replied to the ignorant and greedy dealer.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bigdaddy View Post
    Perfect conditions - just me and one other guy - probably played around an hour and got approx. 150 hands....
    An hour isn't very long. Hopefully the cards will fall your way tomorrow. Do you think by using a 1-3 spread that it could cost you in the long run on this particular DD game?

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    I know this is your local casino and this may not be possible, but if you could find say a $25 table that wasn't watched as closely, and you could spread to 6, you'd have the same win rate and your SD would be 2/3 of your present game. You'd also drop N0 to 11,000 from 21,000.
    Play within your bankroll, pick your games with care and learn everything you can about the game. The winning will come. It has to. It's in the cards. -- Bryce Carlson

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