Losing streak thread PART SIX: time to quit?

[RS]

Is casino using hand shuffle or ASM? I have been playing in a casino that seems don't care if AP are counting at their BJ tables. It is like Counters' Table resurrected. When TC jumps to +5, +10 or even +20 I saw people using up to 50 to 1 spread and the pit boss still smiling. And the shoes are always clumped with 7, 8 and ace. Particularly aces which are always clumped with 5. I remember one recent hand which happens more often than it should be statistically:

Dealer has up card ace. Player 1 has 5,5. Player 2 has ace, 5. Player 3 also has five and ace. Player 1 hit, got an ace and stopped at 21. Player 2, got three aces in a roll and stopped at soft 19. Player 3 hit, got an 5 and stopped at 21. Everybody was happy until we saw dealer down card is 5, then next card he drew is also 5. Two pushes at 21 and player 2 lost his hand.

First, almost every shoe has a sequence of 20 cards that contains 8 to 12 aces with small cards (5 most likely). Theoretically it adds 0.8% or 1.2% to the house edge because these 8 to 12 cards can't lead to a Blackjack. I had 3 hours of playing time without one single BJ. Then spending 3 more hours to get only 2 BJ. It is almost statically impossible. And it happened more often at this place. The good news is that the dealer also seldom got BJ.

The typical composition of a shoe is that it has the neutral 1.5 decks on top, then 1 decks of cards rich and concentrating on 2,3,4 to set up high positive RC, then 1 or 1.5 decks of cards that are neutral but have a few 7/8 clumps. (Remember at this point, TC is high and player begin to bump up bets.) The next 1.5 decks should be juicy one with a lot of faces, but often it is alternating on 12 straight faces that dealer and every player except one all got 20 and push, or face-small-face-small-face-small-face-small-face-small-face-small that is very hard to play. Half of the time you surrender. Half of the time you watch dealer make a hand often because lack of 7/8/9. And in the bottom of the shoe is the neutral cards with the famous ace/five clump. I think no matter where you cut it, this shoe is hard to beat.

If you suspect the casino is programming the ASM to sequence a shoe, counting how many Blackjacks the table including the dealer are getting. If the number is very low, there is something suspicious going on. Another indication is if the shoe always has 12 or more face cards in a roll and other clumps especially 7/8/9 and aces.

When the TC jumps to +5 or +10? +20?!! Only time I remember seeing a count close to +20 was in a deeeeply dealt DD game using a level 2 count.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

When you suspect skullduggery your smart option is to NOT PLAY.
It ought to be part of an enveloping set of default actions, dictating
a staunchly conservative approach to your casino adventures, to wit:

When in doubt …

• Leave the casino.
  
• Bet less.
• Spend less time at the tables.
  
• Buy-in for less.
• Play basic strategy if you are without an index.
• Do not speak to ploppies.
• Toke frequently but microscopically when winning.
• NEVER be greedy !
• Etc. etc. etc.

[BJGenius007]

When the TC jumps to +5 or +10? +20?!! Only time I remember seeing a count close to +20 was in a deeeeply dealt DD game using a level 2 count.

I asked myself that how come a six deck shoe game can produce +20 TC so often, if it is not ASM sequenced the cards. When I play hand shuffled game even at the same place, it is always a boring game, TC stays between -4/+4 most of the time, probably at -1/+1 range 80% of the time.

[BJGenius007]

When you suspect skullduggery your smart option is to NOT PLAY.
It ought to be part of an enveloping set of default actions, dictating
a staunchly conservative approach to your casino adventures, to wit:

When in doubt …

• Leave the casino.
  
• Bet less.
• Spend less time at the tables.
  
• Buy-in for less.
• Play basic strategy if you are without an index.
• Do not speak to ploppies.
• Toke frequently but microscopically when winning.
• NEVER be greedy !
• Etc. etc. etc.

Actually I did all that. And I have a particular strategy playing at this casino. I know

1. The bottom half have two, three or four clumps. There is always an ace/five clump. Then maybe one or two seven clump, eight clump or nine clump. Six clump is also a possibility. (They always save 2, 3, 4 for the small card TC bump clump.)

2. The very top of the shoe is always very neutral.

3. Small cards clump (2, 3, 4 rich clump) proceeds a neutral layer with a non-face clump, then the face card clump. The key point of the sequencing is that after TC is set up high, the players won't have good chance to win the next few hands because they would play neutral layer first. Then when entering the face card layer, everyone got 20 including dealer half of the time. High count but no win and no Blackjack.

This is how I play it. The best cut is to cut very deep, probably less than half deck left. Then you will start the shoe with neutral layer, then small card clump. Now even the RC is +15 or higher, don't jump on bet because you must endure a layer of neutral card with clump(s) of 7, 8, 9, and less likely Ace/5. But you can finish the shoe with big bets after you endure the traps. However, the casino forbid cutting less than 1 deck on both ends. Actually the dealer said you can't cut there if you cut at 1.2 decks deep. The good news is that not all dealers enforce this particular rule because this rule doesn't make any sense to them so they ignore it. If you play often, you know which dealers will ignore the rule. In short, cut very deep and you will be rewarded with big bets that can work at the end of the shoe. Just pace yourself knowing that the first big bets won't work because of the sequencing.

The second best cut is to cut deep as the casino allows you to. Then you play the bottom 1.5 deck first and you can see what the first clump is. Most of the time it is the Ace/five clump. The information is useful because it confirms ASM sequencing mode is likely to set on. Also you know what card is rich or poor and you can play accordingly. In most cases, you know the remaining shoe will be ace poor after you have seen 8 to 12 aces out in the first 20 cards played.

[Sharky]

def hv been leary of asm in the past...remember one joint w lucky ladies and they always seemed to come out 2 to 5 cards apart...can imagine how this greatly reduces the chance of hitting them (table usually crowded)...until i get a chance to play solo and bust their ass

[Stealth]

This is how I play it.

I'm sorry, but you have been advised to not play if they are cheating.

I am not sure what type of response you expect to get from this post other than some recognition for your ability to determine what "you think" is going on. If this is true and repeated it is illegal. Then call gaming and the police and prompt corrective action. If this is within an Indian jurisdiction, then also contact the most influential newspaper and share your story along with your proof.

I have no interest in analyzing or understanding how one might beat such a situation. The honest games are enough challenge for me to beat.

Not reporting them, would seem to make you somewhat of an accomplice in the eyes of their customers or, at a minimum, doing a disservice to other AP's who may be following in this store.

[Freightman]

I asked myself that how come a six deck shoe game can produce +20 TC so often, if it is not ASM sequenced the cards. When I play hand shuffled game even at the same place, it is always a boring game, TC stays between -4/+4 most of the time, probably at -1/+1 range 80% of the time.

I think you meant +20 RC - just had one of those a couple of days ago on a 6d shoe, while out of town. Funny thing - after the shoe, Asian critter speaks to another Asian critter speaking to another Asian critter, with first asian critter speaking to Asian dealer in Asian language - half shoe - not sure where that came from

As far as TC-1 to TC + 1 80% of the time - that's pretty typical.

[BJGenius007]

As far as TC-1 to TC + 1 80% of the time - that's pretty typical.

That is my point, if I play their hand shuffled game, it is very typical. On the other hand, their ASM table has unusual negative and positive swing on TC. I strongly suspect the ASM has built-in sequence function.

By the way, I usually played at three casinos. I feel one casino has never turned it on. At the first casino, in more than one occasion, I heard that the dealer (he felt very proud) say that they are the only honest casino in the region and never mess up with the settings of the ASM. At the second casino, someone will come to switch it on if they suspect there is an AP at the table. The third casino has it on almost all the time.

[Freightman]

That is my point, if I play their hand shuffled game, it is very typical. Their ASM table has unusual negative and positive swing on TC. I strongly suspect the ASM has built-in sequence function.

By the way, I usually played at three casinos. I feel one casino has never turned it on. In more than one occasion, I heard that the dealer (he felt very proud) say that they are the only honest casino in the region and never mess up with the settings of the ASM. At the second casino, someone will come to switch it on if they suspect there is an AP at the table. The third casino has it on almost all the time.

You have raised some VERY interesting points. The technology is definitely there to do as you are perhaps surmising. Is it being done - sometimes it seems like it - if it is being done, the action would be criminal. You mention a proud dealer.....maybe some prodding on your part may have this person divulge some info.

[Three]

2. The very top of the shoe is always very neutral.

Don't they let you cut the cards? the top of the shoe should be random from the clumps. I am not buying it. You just showed this is either all BS or selective memory to explain your failures.

However, the casino forbid cutting less than 1 deck on both ends. Actually the dealer said you can't cut there if you cut at 1.2 decks deep.

So every part of that area between 1.2 decks from top and bottom starts with a clump of the same cards? Not buying what you are selling. i already fertilized my garden.

Just bet the match the dealer bet.

[BJGenius007]

Don't they let you cut the cards? the top of the shoe should be random from the clumps. I am not buying it. You just showed this is either all BS or selective memory to explain your failures.


So every part of that area between 1.2 decks from top and bottom starts with a clump of the same cards? Not buying what you are selling. i already fertilized my garden.

Just bet the match the dealer bet.

The shoe from Hell is like
top [1.5D Neutral][1.25D 2/3/4/5 clump][1D clump of X][1.25D face cards clump][1D clump of Y][1D clump of Z] bottom

X, Y, Z will be one of the clump: 6, 7, 8, 9, A/5. Most likely, Z will be A/5 clump, and X=7, Y=8.

If you cut very deep, like 0.5 deck from the bottom, you will play the shoe like
[0.5D clump of A/5][1.5D Neutral][1.25D 2/3/4/5 clump][1D clump of 7][1.25D face cards clump][cards that not play]

Even if you cut very thin, the face card clump is still in the decent place.

Basically ASM has two chambers. The dealer puts the cards on left chamber. Then ASM push one card at a time from left chamber to right chambers until all cards are in right chamber and left chamber is empty. Either ASM uses RFID or image processing technique to read the rank on the edge. By reading the card and deciding to push through the card or not, it can create a shoe containing several clumps that will make Basic Strategy and counting the worst strategies to play this shoe.

And from the legal point, the shoe is still totally randomized. It just makes cards of same ranks more likely stick together.

Special note: face card clump is like:

TTTTTTTTTTTTTTT2TT34T5T6TA5TT23TT76TTTTTTTTTTTTTTT TT93TT25T6T8TT57T4

So you got a lot of push at 20. I also want to emphasize this. By taking 8 or 12 aces away without really removing them, it adds 0.8% to 1.2% to house edge.

[Exoter175]

I wonder whether it is time to quit.

I am very lucky to have the conditions at my local casino. I seek out the best tables, the best dealers, because I know how much pen I will get from every individual dealer. I have hardly any heat.

I recovered from my last losing streak and got to a new all time high.

My success lasted but two sessions. I was up $8260 for the year. And then it all came tumbling down again.
When I had my last losing streak, it was interspersed with a few decent wins. This time it's been bad. In my last twelve sessions, I have lost nine of them and the three that I won, I was only ahead by a miniscule amount. I have lost $6300 of my profit.

For the first half of this latest losing streak, I wasn't worried. I thought that all losing streaks come to an end if I had the advantage (and oh, even basic strategy and even ploppies win some sessions). I thought I'd learnt from my experience from last time and I'd eventually ride out the storm, recoup my losses and win some more.

But I kept losing. I didn't chase my losses, I didn't do anything irrational. I just kept losing. I wonged out of bad shoes and did about as well as expected on my small and moderate bets. Whenever the count went high, I lost.

In my latest session the bet was +4 from halfway through a shoe. I was up $400 with a max bet of $75x2, then I lost sixteen hands straight (eight by two boxes) and my session bankroll. The count was unbelievably high all the way through.

I worked out that I was averaging about -5% of my turnover over my last twelve sessions - that's worse than Roulette.

They haven't changed the rules, I know my indices down pat. Every time the count gets high (+4 or more) I lose just about every hand. It's stiff hand bust stiff hand bust stiff hand bust time after time after time after time after time after time after time.

I don't know when I am ever going to get another reasonable winning session. Or indeed whether I should continue to play at all.

I would really appreciate your help, but please don't patronise or condescend on me. I know how I play and I don't believe I've done anything wrong.

It seems, that I am just destined to sit on the extreme left of the Gaussian curve for all eternity.

Sometimes things just don't work out, or work as they should. We all know this, we have all felt and experienced it, just as we've all felt and experienced things working as they should, or perhaps the counter to your situation, better than they should.

If your game is solid, your cover is solid, your count is solid, and you are mentally fresh when you play, then the only thing I can say is going on here is "bad luck" or negative variance, whichever you prefer.

I'm not going to patronize you or your game, or your ability to conduct yourself as an AP. You know how this all works out, how to conduct yourself, what you stand to risk and gain, and I'm sure with the number of streaks you've encountered now, you know how to handle the defeat of variance and have the testicular fortitude to "man up" and deal with it and press forward.

In the last few months (personal reflection piece about to start here) I think I can finally accept and admit the fact that I believe I've fully "mastered" being an AP. Obviously as we all know, my social/cover game is on another level than most people on this forum, but my absolute weakness (the fact that I can admit this is awesome) has always been my emotions. This isn't to say that I can't stay calm and collected 24/7 while playing, or that I can't stay focused, because I can with 110% accuracy. The issue for me, all along, has been that I've always beaten myself up after the fact, for when I missed an opportunity or made an insignificant mistake that would have otherwise added to my bottom line.

Looking back on that now, its almost all completely gone. I've always been a confident individual, always been quick to build my spirits back up and keep a "positive vibe", but now I've settled into a very emotionless "robotic" mode. Not like how I imagine T3 all the time, but in the sense that I am exceptionally quick to "get over" something and back to what I'm doing. In all honesty, this isn't just about APBJ either, but its my other AP "stuff" as well filtering in.

As some of you know, I'm more of a "hybrid" (especially as of late) AP player. I've always been one, but only in the last year have I added APBJ to the repertoire. Lately I've added a few more "tricks" to the repertoire, and the thing I've noticed most in my "overall game" is how much less my emotions even "come out" on any AP play, be it at the table or VUXing. On top of this, my recent discoveries in my latest travels, unveiling a plethora of new "AP machines" has really helped to advance my progression in weeding out emotions and getting to the bottom line. I basically sit here today (sick, which is why I'm home typing this) reflecting on a similar situation while reading your post, and comparing and contrasting to my "present state" and I think the biggest improvement I've made is (this is a machine player thing and mantra) "get to the next play". Its more of a way of "hustling" (though there are two definitions of casino hustling, that I could explain later if need be) and while it is very obvious in the way that it is read, it carries with it a deeper psychological meaning as well, which is simply "get over what you just did, and get back on the horse and get to your next opportunity" in a sense. So, when I say I've become more "robotic" I mean that in the sense that when I arrive at a play or arrive at the table, I've been able to leave all emotions at the door, get through the "play", and get on to the "next one" whether I won or lost has now become something of a "non issue" for me, because I know that with enough time, I'll be ahead.

The reason I bring up this long personal reflection or narrative is because I think you might need to address your psyche and take a step back. If your game is sound, as it appears it is, then you need to address yourself first. How is your confidence? How is your self esteem? Do you need to congratulate yourself for an achievement? Are you running yourself into the ground emotionally because you aren't meeting your own expectations?

In all honesty, I find it important, very important to be able to self diagnose any psychological affects you might have that affect you from your game, or affect your game through you, and find a way to cope with or handle them, and then turn them into an energetic force that moves you forward.

I think its obvious to most that you have the skill and intelligence to do what we all do, and do it well, but sometimes (and I'm very guilty of this) we get so far ahead of ourselves psychologically with the immersion of "the game" that we can often lose sight of what is most important, ourselves. So let my post serve as a healthy reminder to take a step back and do a self-diagnostic and see if perhaps you're working too hard, or getting too emotional, or simply to find out if you have a weakness that could otherwise affect your game.

I have one more story for you guys, and then I'm off, but it does have a little something to do with what I've been talking about here and "getting at" with the psychology of all of this.

Lately I've taken on an apprentice. I've known the guy for decades now, and he's shown a fair degree of aptitude for "advantage play" from slots to table games, and after feeling him out for a while, have decided to teach him the "true art" of casino hustling. We're talking APBJ, Comp Hustling, Machine Hustling, VUXing, Craps strategies, I mean the full repertoire of what I might do in a day. I've been "educating him" for the last 3 months now on various situations in the repertoire to the point where I now dedicate about 10-15 hours a week towards his education. Its been absolutely worth my time, and I've taken "care" to make sure that I've got the right "apprentice" for this, so that I don't inadvertently create more competition for myself in some aspects. The first month or so of his education, we covered a lot of the basics of the repertoire, like teaching him Hi-Lo, dice control, video poker basic strategies, what to look for on various machines that make them susceptible to AP plays, etc. There was a lot of knowledge that he had to digest, and more importantly to drill into his head and slightly change the way he might look at a machine or casino particularly. In the last 3-4 weeks or so, we've been taking nightly trips when I get "off" from my casino schedules, to run him through a couple local places that I frequent much less often than the others, and we'll test part of the repertoire. It started off with just VUX'ing which is a "Casino Hustler's bread and butter" as my mentor would say. It was here, VUX'ing that we encountered our first problem. With VUX'ing, every opportunity you encounter, is a positive EV encounter. He knows that, I've explained it to him, and I've explained that on an average day or night "doing this" he only needs a small bankroll of $20-40 depending on the denominations he would run into. So, there we were in our first week, having a pretty common occurrence of himself getting "down" emotionally after losing 4 or 5 hands in a row and halving his nightly bankroll. I kept drilling into him each and every night that it didn't matter what happened, and that as long as he played his hand correctly he'll be ahead in the end. Each and every night at the end of the night we'd combine our nightly bankrolls and split the profit (keeping in mind that this was for VUX'ing only) and each and every night we'd make money. Granted most nights it was barely enough to cover the cost of gas to get around and get dinner for the both of us, but every once in a while, maybe once or twice a week, we'd be up a few hundred dollars in just an hour or two's work, and he slowly started to "get it" and what I've been drilling and preaching to him. Which was essentially that each play that he ran into, didn't matter as long as he played it out right, and that the ultimate goal isn't that he made or lost money, but that he get to the NEXT opportunity to make money, and so forth. I also made a point (the part of this story I want most on this forum to really read and comprehend and digest and think on for a minute) to explain to him that when our emotions get the better of us, they always carry with them a negative. When we are exceptionally happy we become euphoric and almost ignorant of our surroundings (very bad and dangerous to an AP), when we become angry we tend to become irrational and unfocused (quite possibly the worst combinations for any table player), or that when we get sad/let down/upset that we lost money when we expected to otherwise make it, we become almost "depressed" and when that happens we tend to look "backwards" and dwell on everything, and lose sight of what's important. In the case of VUXing that quite literally is getting to the NEXT play, and I hammered him on that explained that when he gets depressed about losing $10-20 in his first 15-20 plays it will affect you going forward. You will physically move slower (which is the ultimate killer in machine hustling), lose focus (very bad when you have to memorize ten different VP strategies), and that you'll lose your confidence (thus losing your drive and desire to improve).

Last week it finally hit him, and I have to say that I felt the sense of pride akin to a father watching his son grow up before him. We went out on our nightly run to clear out all the leftover VUXing machines, and about halfway through the night, while he was $5 down and I was about $75 up, he just runs circles around me all night long and stops to make a comment. He says "you know what, you're right. I'm down right now but it isn't affecting me at all, and honestly I think you're moving a little slow tonight, are you feeling alright". I smiled and told him I was absolutely fine, that we were up for the night and that I wasn't moving slower, its that he was leaving his emotions at the door and finally "doing" what I've been instructing him to do, leaving his emotions at the door, play the hand "perfectly" and get to the next play.

This week I've since decided to "graduate him" from his apprenticeship, assigned him a casino to start going to, and as a treat this Memorial Day weekend, took him out of town to a nice little "jewel" of a casino I've found (that also comp me ridiculously well) and told him we'd be splitting everything 50/50 on the machine plays and that he has free reign over everything, and that I expect him to make as much or more than I.

I ended up beating him thanks to my rugged good looks and natural charm (or maybe because I got extremely lucky on a VUX play) but he did exceptionally well, even after we started down on the first night thanks to some awful luck on some +EV machines.

The reason I wanted to share such novels with you isn't necessarily because of my own self reflection and narrative, but because we've all been there, and many of us for some reason couldn't figure out WHY we were encountering this streak or that streak or why they were happening in the first place. For most, myself included, it was because we became so immersed with "the game" or "the hustle" that we didn't find the time to take a step back and reflect and self-diagnose, and I think a few forum members have touched on that in the past but it isn't something we discuss as frequently as we should, and sometimes it just gets forgotten with how busy we all find ourselves.

But I'll say this, I don't think I've ever truly reflected on my own well being up until this last year, and I make it a "thing to do" with regularity now. Keeps my confidence solid, my spirits high, and I've been a pretty happy camper. It also doesn't hurt that I've been absolutely cashing in every couple weeks with this "jewel" that I've found, and using it as more of a "decompression" weekend rather than a work weekend. When you're in the penthouse suite relaxing in a Jacuzzi with a giant flat screen on the wall in front of you with a glass of champagne from your "courtesy" bottle that they put in your room when you check in, you tend to truly relax a little, and that's been huge for me, relaxation.

[Koz84]

Without giving away too many details, I know MM, I know where he plays and I know the specific game he plays. It's a variant of the game that they feel is unbeatable, the ironic thing is, it's better than their house BJ which they watch like a hawk. I know this because I was thrown out within 30 minutes of play, quite aggressively, may I add. I've read about potential cheating, short decks etc. I can assure you that's not the case. You can literally sit at this table 24 hours a day and they won't care.