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Thread: Losing streak thread PART SIX: time to quit?

  1. #1


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    Losing streak thread PART SIX: time to quit?

    I wonder whether it is time to quit.

    I am very lucky to have the conditions at my local casino. I seek out the best tables, the best dealers, because I know how much pen I will get from every individual dealer. I have hardly any heat.

    I recovered from my last losing streak and got to a new all time high.

    My success lasted but two sessions. I was up $8260 for the year. And then it all came tumbling down again.
    When I had my last losing streak, it was interspersed with a few decent wins. This time it's been bad. In my last twelve sessions, I have lost nine of them and the three that I won, I was only ahead by a miniscule amount. I have lost $6300 of my profit.

    For the first half of this latest losing streak, I wasn't worried. I thought that all losing streaks come to an end if I had the advantage (and oh, even basic strategy and even ploppies win some sessions). I thought I'd learnt from my experience from last time and I'd eventually ride out the storm, recoup my losses and win some more.

    But I kept losing. I didn't chase my losses, I didn't do anything irrational. I just kept losing. I wonged out of bad shoes and did about as well as expected on my small and moderate bets. Whenever the count went high, I lost.

    In my latest session the bet was +4 from halfway through a shoe. I was up $400 with a max bet of $75x2, then I lost sixteen hands straight (eight by two boxes) and my session bankroll. The count was unbelievably high all the way through.

    I worked out that I was averaging about -5% of my turnover over my last twelve sessions - that's worse than Roulette.

    They haven't changed the rules, I know my indices down pat. Every time the count gets high (+4 or more) I lose just about every hand. It's stiff hand bust stiff hand bust stiff hand bust time after time after time after time after time after time after time.

    I don't know when I am ever going to get another reasonable winning session. Or indeed whether I should continue to play at all.

    I would really appreciate your help, but please don't patronise or condescend on me. I know how I play and I don't believe I've done anything wrong.

    It seems, that I am just destined to sit on the extreme left of the Gaussian curve for all eternity.
    I.... feel so right doing the Wong thing!!! 9-5! 9-5! 9-5! Every king that screws her makes me feel alive!!

  2. #2


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    I read your post with interest looking for some possible area of discrepancy that might illuminate the error of your ways. None was found.

    So with that, I can only offer those words from the South that are used to show generic empathy for those suffering misfortune, "Bless your heart!".
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  3. #3


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    Do you see all the cards spread and put into the shoe? If you were there at the start of a shift, would that be their procedure? If I were a casino owner, and I identified a patron who was a regular and a card counter, I could make a great deal more money cheating him than I could by throwing him out. Just sayin'. Why do you think they have "tolerated" you for so long? do you really think they don't know you're counting? But, they don't care. Red flags all over the place.

    Don

  4. #4
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    sounds like you have the required aptitude to count successfully, however to be successful with counting alone, you have to have the mental aspect to deal with the ridiculous financial "swings" that are certain to accompany...no one is immune to these - no matter how sophisticated you feel you count may be...perhaps you should invest you money in something safer, like bonds.

    not knowing the rules of your game, what is your hourly ev by max betting only 2x75?...most places, sans vegas, you can easily spread 20+...which is a min I will use in a shoe gaem.

  5. #5


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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    Do you see all the cards spread and put into the shoe? If you were there at the start of a shift, would that be their procedure? If I were a casino owner, and I identified a patron who was a regular and a card counter, I could make a great deal more money cheating him than I could by throwing him out. Just sayin'. Why do you think they have "tolerated" you for so long? do you really think they don't know you're counting? But, they don't care. Red flags all over the place.

    Don
    This is an odd statement from you. We hardly have any details about this persons play. Looking back on some of the posts his spread could be anywhere from ?10-200 to the now ?10 - 2x75. Two months ago they had only 125 hours logged playing for the year. How many counters that are sure they are doing the right thing make 6 threads and ~50 posts complaining about variance in a time period of less than 300 hours?
    Maman died today. Or yesterday maybe, I don't know.

  6. #6


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    I read all the previous posts. I'm aware of them. Two things stand out to me: 1) He has played hundreds of hours at the same place, and they continue to tolerate his play. That isn't normal. 2) He seems to report inordinate frequencies of high counts, during which he loses with regularity. That isn't "normal" either. I asked a question to which it would be pertinent, at least to me, to get the answer.

    Don

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    My first reaction was that Don's statement seemed a little unusual. In this day and age of corporate run casino, cheating...at least cheating at the casino sponsored level is becoming increasingly rare. Any cheating cases that we do run across, usually involve a rouge dealer, maybe a 'leftover' from a past era. The exception, of course being Indian casinos, which play by their own rules or lack of rules (and oversight).

    But, if all or most of one's play takes place at one location and the results start to look unusual, you certainly want to take a look at the possibility and rule it out.

    I know there have been numerous threads by the OP on this subject and it's travel day for me so I don't have time to go back and read them all and refresh my memory, but based solely on this thread, he was up $8260 for the year and has recently lost 3/4 of that back, which by my calculations still has him up a couple grand. I mean without knowing details, is he even out of standard deviation range? He's still in the black.
    Last edited by KJ; 05-25-2015 at 11:45 AM.

  8. #8
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    http://www.blackjackforumonline.com/...t/wontwin.html

    I've suffered losing streaks that would curdle the blood of a Roman gladiator. A predilection for masochism is a big plus in blackjack.
    Last edited by Jabberwocky; 05-25-2015 at 03:40 PM.

  9. #9


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    Lol so you are up 2300 after a massive 40 max bet downswing. Yeah they're cheating you, no casino can take 2x75, definitely cheating. To me it sounds like you had the ideal start to your career, made money no backoffs, got a lot of time to work on your game and experienced a downswing at lower stakes where you can bounce back. If you can't take this size downswing bj is not for you...this is a brutal game.

    Ill give you an idea...I was down 25k last year playing a max bet of 2x250, this is with a strong spread and wonging in good games. But the really sick part is, I play online bj for bonuses and was up 15k before any bonuses with an avg bet of $75 over about the same time...this is plop bs BJ, no counting, and I crushed my counting results. There's just not much difference until you get to the very long run.
    Last edited by biggg; 05-25-2015 at 06:06 PM.

  10. #10


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    Outside of Las Vegas, I am not so sure the casinos really fear that much if they had a couple of 10's short in a DD or 6 deck game. I met two young state auditors ( 2 young women in their late 20's/early 30's) and was able to observe them. They came to the local casino from the capital city, stayed overnight at a local hotel. I saw them walking around among the slots, among table games. They would carry a writing pad, ocassionally make a note. I talked to them separately the next day, one in the morning hours when traffic was low. The pit guy had told me they were auditors from the gaming board when I asked what a lady with a pad was doing.

    i think, too often, either there are no customers around when they open the decks (in the morning hours) or the customers take a break when decks are being opened and washed. I am talking about a local casino in the Midwest that closes up at 4:00 a.m., re-opens at 8:00 a.m. Except on weekends.

    Missing 10 cards mean more high counts and max bets and losses could multiply.

  11. #11


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    Yes quit


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  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by mickeymouse View Post
    I wonder whether it is time to quit.

    I am very lucky to have the conditions at my local casino. I seek out the best tables, the best dealers, because I know how much pen I will get from every individual dealer. I have hardly any heat.

    I recovered from my last losing streak and got to a new all time high.

    My success lasted but two sessions. I was up $8260 for the year. And then it all came tumbling down again.
    When I had my last losing streak, it was interspersed with a few decent wins. This time it's been bad. In my last twelve sessions, I have lost nine of them and the three that I won, I was only ahead by a miniscule amount. I have lost $6300 of my profit.

    For the first half of this latest losing streak, I wasn't worried. I thought that all losing streaks come to an end if I had the advantage (and oh, even basic strategy and even ploppies win some sessions). I thought I'd learnt from my experience from last time and I'd eventually ride out the storm, recoup my losses and win some more.

    But I kept losing. I didn't chase my losses, I didn't do anything irrational. I just kept losing. I wonged out of bad shoes and did about as well as expected on my small and moderate bets. Whenever the count went high, I lost.

    In my latest session the bet was +4 from halfway through a shoe. I was up $400 with a max bet of $75x2, then I lost sixteen hands straight (eight by two boxes) and my session bankroll. The count was unbelievably high all the way through.

    I worked out that I was averaging about -5% of my turnover over my last twelve sessions - that's worse than Roulette.

    They haven't changed the rules, I know my indices down pat. Every time the count gets high (+4 or more) I lose just about every hand. It's stiff hand bust stiff hand bust stiff hand bust time after time after time after time after time after time after time.

    I don't know when I am ever going to get another reasonable winning session. Or indeed whether I should continue to play at all.

    I would really appreciate your help, but please don't patronise or condescend on me. I know how I play and I don't believe I've done anything wrong.

    It seems, that I am just destined to sit on the extreme left of the Gaussian curve for all eternity.
    Please give information on the game rule, table condition and penetration.

  13. #13


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    Is casino using hand shuffle or ASM? I have been playing in a casino that seems don't care if AP are counting at their BJ tables. It is like Counters' Table resurrected. When TC jumps to +5, +10. +15 or even +20 (to clarify, this is TC, not RC, in some shoes, RC is almost +40 when almost 2 decks left) I saw people using up to 50 to 1 spread and the pit boss still smiling. And the shoes are always clumped with 7, 8 and ace. Particularly aces which are always clumped with 5. I remember one recent hand which happens more often than it should be statistically:

    Dealer has up card ace. Player 1 has 5,5. Player 2 has ace, 5. Player 3 also has five and ace. Player 1 hit, got an ace and stopped at 21. Player 2, got three aces in a roll and stopped at soft 19. Player 3 hit, got an 5 and stopped at 21. Everybody was happy until we saw dealer down card is 5, then next card he drew is also 5. Two pushes at 21 and player 2 lost his hand.

    First, almost every shoe has a sequence of 20 cards that contains 8 to 12 aces with small cards (5 most likely). Theoretically it adds 0.8% or 1.2% to the house edge because these 8 to 12 cards can't lead to a Blackjack. I had 3 hours of playing time without one single BJ. Then spending 3 more hours to get only 2 BJ. It is almost statically impossible. And it happened more often at this place. The good news is that the dealer also seldom got BJ.

    The typical composition of a shoe is that it has the neutral 1.5 decks on top, then 1 decks of cards rich and concentrating on 2,3,4 to set up high positive RC, then 1 or 1.5 decks of cards that are neutral but have a few 7/8 clumps. (Remember at this point, TC is high and player begin to bump up bets.) The next 1.5 decks should be juicy one with a lot of faces, but often it is alternating on 12 straight faces that dealer and every player except one all got 20 and push, or face-small-face-small-face-small-face-small-face-small-face-small that is very hard to play. Half of the time you surrender. Half of the time you watch dealer make a hand often because lack of 7/8/9. And in the bottom of the shoe is the neutral cards with the famous ace/five clump. I think no matter where you cut it, this shoe is hard to beat.

    If you suspect the casino is programming the ASM to sequence a shoe, counting how many Blackjacks the table including the dealer are getting. If the number is very low, there is something suspicious going on. Another indication is if the shoe always has 12 or more face cards in a roll and other clumps especially 7/8/9 and aces.
    Last edited by BJGenius007; 05-26-2015 at 08:54 AM.

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