CVData: A bug or....

[Beyond]

Hi all, first post for me here. I've been simming the conditions abroad by playing around a lot on CVData and I've run into a problem I can't figure out, and that is:

Why is my simulated win rate for No Insurance HIGHER than INSURE BJ only? I'm certain every single variable other than the insurance is identical between the two simulations, I'm certain I'm running it for a sufficient number of rounds (1600 million, it's accurate approx to the nearest cent but Insure BJ earns $1.58 less than no insurance). I'm using KO and a standard 1 - 10 spread.

I'm suspecting that by ticking the Insure BJ only box on CVData, will lead to ALL BJs being insured (instead of insuring above a count of +3) which may explain the lower win rate?

But any help would be appreciated.

[Norm]

You just don't get a BJ wih a dealer ace up that often. Thus, the gain is very small. Page 141 in Modern Blackjack shows this tiny difference. Actually, the gain in any one decision is tiny. This is why we cannot create indices by simply running sims. You need to run an obscene number of rounds (tens of billions) to see the effect of one decision like this.

Incidentally, this is also why always insuring BJs is a cheap cover play.