# Thread: what is an anomaly and what is normal for variance?

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## what is an anomaly and what is normal for variance?

Hi,

Once again I call upon th experienced players. I played a bit a few years ago was under bankrolled and wiped myself out. I'd like to try playing about 7000 hands a month as I am coming into some money and am now semi retired and would like to use the time to produce some amount of money.

I will have about a 70k bankroll, and have carved out a separate pool of about one years worth of my bills and living expenses. I'm trying to figure out if this is enough. This is my shot as an adenture. My chance to see if I really could have made any money at blackjack.

I count HiLo, illustriaous 18. I've been playing on the computer for years using CVBJ. I have lost my data due to the lock out computer virsus but decided I would play 70k hands and track where I was on a hypothetical monthly budget. I have also downloaded my play logs into excel and set up a spreadsheet thet tells me what I would have won loss had I been using variuos betting ramps by taking the ratio of the result to bet and then calculating what each hand would have yeilded with a defferent bet assigned to the TC that was current at the start of the hand.

So after 40k hands with about a 1.6% play error rate (this is a little high because I insure BJ at low count and don't insure surrenders at high count, mostly as a camo thing) I am at only a 27k win. Using 6.5 deck penn, H17 RAS DAS SR, with a 70k bankroll. It doens't bother me that I'm only at 27k for six months of part time work but the question I have is what the swings should look like over that time. I am modeling the following betting Ramp <1 25, 1=100. 2=200, 3=350 and 4=400 max bet. I hit my high water mark at 22767 hands and had won \$57000 (life was good) then I lost \$40250 over the next 14561 hands, leaving me wtih about 17k in income for what would have been about 5 months of play. My question is, does this sound like normal swing and variance between wins and losses or is it an anomoly? When I calulate the odds on CVCX, it tells me the chances of loosing 40250 in 14561 hands is .12%.

I know KJ has written about loss periods lasting multiple months. Should this be what I should expect for ups and downs and shrug it off or should I be looking at what could be wrong with my game?

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Quick comment: Betting \$350 AT+3 and \$400 at +4 is a waste. I'd bet \$400 at +3 and \$600 at +4. Your bankroll would permit you to bet double that amount, so playing at half-Kelly, with 1.80% ROR, seems pretty safe to me.

Don

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Originally Posted by Oneoffthecount
Hi,

Once again I call upon th experienced players. I played a bit a few years ago was under bankrolled and wiped myself out. I'd like to try playing about 7000 hands a month as I am coming into some money and am now semi retired and would like to use the time to produce some amount of money.

I will have about a 70k bankroll, and have carved out a separate pool of about one years worth of my bills and living expenses. I'm trying to figure out if this is enough. This is my shot as an adenture. My chance to see if I really could have made any money at blackjack.

I count HiLo, illustriaous 18. I've been playing on the computer for years using CVBJ. I have lost my data due to the lock out computer virsus but decided I would play 70k hands and track where I was on a hypothetical monthly budget. I have also downloaded my play logs into excel and set up a spreadsheet thet tells me what I would have won loss had I been using variuos betting ramps by taking the ratio of the result to bet and then calculating what each hand would have yeilded with a defferent bet assigned to the TC that was current at the start of the hand.

So after 40k hands with about a 1.6% play error rate (this is a little high because I insure BJ at low count and don't insure surrenders at high count, mostly as a camo thing) I am at only a 27k win. Using 6.5 deck penn, H17 RAS DAS SR, with a 70k bankroll. It doens't bother me that I'm only at 27k for six months of part time work but the question I have is what the swings should look like over that time. I am modeling the following betting Ramp <1 25, 1=100. 2=200, 3=350 and 4=400 max bet. I hit my high water mark at 22767 hands and had won \$57000 (life was good) then I lost \$40250 over the next 14561 hands, leaving me wtih about 17k in income for what would have been about 5 months of play. My question is, does this sound like normal swing and variance between wins and losses or is it an anomoly? When I calulate the odds on CVCX, it tells me the chances of loosing 40250 in 14561 hands is .12%.

I know KJ has written about loss periods lasting multiple months. Should this be what I should expect for ups and downs and shrug it off or should I be looking at what could be wrong with my game?
I think you should be careful not to make conclusions regarding your performance until you have enough hands to approximate the long term. I believe that after playing enough rounds to achieve N0 for 2 standard deviations you should begin to expect (with some 95% confidence) your performance to be within those 2 standard deviations.

The game you described has a N0 for 2 SD of about 58,000 rounds and at that time you could be up 158K or down (.5K) and have an EV of 78K.

What you have described is 37K rounds which is 21K rounds short of my N0 for 2 SD (long term). Your EV is 50619 and you have a 95% chance of being up 114K or down (13K). Your actual results remain within 1 SD. And don't overlook that there is a 5% chance of being outside these ranges.

So the thought is that you have experienced nothing but variance.

As Dschles suggested, a more aggressive betting structure (if the casino will withstand it) is well within a reasonable kelly and RoR and would do much to improve your results.

Hope these thoughts helps.

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Sometimes I have a hard time beleving that this forum is free. Although I'm not sure I want to give Norm any ideas.

Let me preface a couple of questions with the fact that I recognize my babe in the woods status and don't question whehter Senior players are right, merely seekin to understand thier advice better. I read a thread where some senior players had commented that their cheif frustration was that after less experienced players sought their advice, they then contended the answer didn't match what they thought was right. Since what I think is right is likely to be crap, that's why I ask.

Don-

I've had input from some senior members that getting away with anything more than a 10 or 12 spread, is difficult. Would your advice be to go to a 24 spread and could I survive the heat?

Why do you consider the suggested spread a waste of time, if EV is \$78k. I know I'm not in the same arena as guys like you but I'd be ok wiht earning even half of that to augment semi-retirement income.

Stealth-

Fantastic advice. Very understandable. I'm still more focused on the types of up and down swings I will see and not the result after 70k, since it means nothing to what will happen in any given year, only what would happen if I hit the mean for the year. My questions are more along the lines of does a \$40 loosing streak over two months equal a normal course of business or is it a signal that something is wrong? Given that I had a \$57k up in 22k hands, I'm assuming that I need to be both mentally and finacially prepared for those typse of swings on a month to month basis.

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Your 40K loss was at 3 SD, improbable but not impossible. Again you must review in context of the law of large numbers. It is these variances that make teams more attractive. Teams can play more and get to the long term quicker and they can mitigate the risk with a bigger bankroll.

Teams also have their downsides that should be understood and considered.

Good luck, no pun intended!

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"I've had input from some senior members that getting away with anything more than a 10 or 12 spread, is difficult. Would your advice be to go to a 24 spread and could I survive the heat?"

I can't answer that. But, the top bet is surely within your bankroll. So, adjust the starting bet if you're afraid of the spread.

"Why do you consider the suggested spread a waste of time, if EV is \$78k. I know I'm not in the same arena as guys like you but I'd be ok with earning even half of that to augment semi-retirement income.

Please quote me correctly. I said quite specifically that betting \$350 at +3 and then only \$400 at +4 is a waste of time. It makes no sense whatsoever to raise a \$350 bet by only 14%, after achieving a full TC higher, when your edge is increasing by almost 50%.

Don

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An optimal play-all ramp from \$25 to \$400 for the game you described (keeping all bets in green chips):
TC < 1: \$25
TC +1: \$60 (\$50)
TC +2: \$193 (\$200)
TC +3: \$329 (\$325)
TC >= +4: \$400

The RoR would be 0.8% for your 70K BR and you would earn an EV of \$63.71 but you have a n0 of 45,393 and c-SCORE of 22.04.

If you played 2 hands except in negative counts, learned the rest of the indices and wonged out at counts worse than -1, it might get to be a decent game for a 16:1 spread.

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A spread of 12 and a game like that sounds awful ,unless there is a good reason. i am assuming 6.5 pen as 6.5/8 deck. i am not a pro or a seasoned player. If it looks bad in my eyes ,i would like to hear what the seasoned member say.

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Don-

Sorry for the inaccuracy, part of the learning curve. No offense intended.

Everyone, thanks for all of your perspectives. All great stuff.

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