Hi,

Once again I call upon th experienced players. I played a bit a few years ago was under bankrolled and wiped myself out. I'd like to try playing about 7000 hands a month as I am coming into some money and am now semi retired and would like to use the time to produce some amount of money.

I will have about a 70k bankroll, and have carved out a separate pool of about one years worth of my bills and living expenses. I'm trying to figure out if this is enough. This is my shot as an adenture. My chance to see if I really could have made any money at blackjack.

I count HiLo, illustriaous 18. I've been playing on the computer for years using CVBJ. I have lost my data due to the lock out computer virsus but decided I would play 70k hands and track where I was on a hypothetical monthly budget. I have also downloaded my play logs into excel and set up a spreadsheet thet tells me what I would have won loss had I been using variuos betting ramps by taking the ratio of the result to bet and then calculating what each hand would have yeilded with a defferent bet assigned to the TC that was current at the start of the hand.

So after 40k hands with about a 1.6% play error rate (this is a little high because I insure BJ at low count and don't insure surrenders at high count, mostly as a camo thing) I am at only a 27k win. Using 6.5 deck penn, H17 RAS DAS SR, with a 70k bankroll. It doens't bother me that I'm only at 27k for six months of part time work but the question I have is what the swings should look like over that time. I am modeling the following betting Ramp <1 25, 1=100. 2=200, 3=350 and 4=400 max bet. I hit my high water mark at 22767 hands and had won $57000 (life was good) then I lost $40250 over the next 14561 hands, leaving me wtih about 17k in income for what would have been about 5 months of play. My question is, does this sound like normal swing and variance between wins and losses or is it an anomoly? When I calulate the odds on CVCX, it tells me the chances of loosing 40250 in 14561 hands is .12%.

I know KJ has written about loss periods lasting multiple months. Should this be what I should expect for ups and downs and shrug it off or should I be looking at what could be wrong with my game?