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Thread: Splitting 10s for cover, splitting 10s for profit

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    Splitting 10s for cover, splitting 10s for profit

    Do any of you know if the loss in EV of splitting 10s at low counts would be good cover for splitting 10s at high counts? Would the profit of high count splits adequately make up for the low count splits or would it be too little to be worth it?
    I was wondering if this would make them think that you just like to split 10s when the mood strikes you, but then again it could simply draw too much attention and not help cover at all. I'm not sure and would not want to implement it unless I knew that the profit of the high counts would be worth it and the casino would not care. I have no idea though how the potential profit would measure against the potential heat.

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    I think no matter what your history is, splitting 10s always draws a lot of attention. If not directly from the pit, you'll have the whole table pulling their hair and screaming loud enough for someone to walk by to see what the fuss is about. Doing so regularly would probably make you more memorable. You probably want to stick to stuff that ploppies already do.

    I don't have the numbers, but I also would not expect splitting 10s to be cheap. Perhaps someone could provide figures. It seems that even if it was cheap to do, it wouldn't be worth it. Since it probably isn't cheap to do, it probably definitely isn't worth it. However, I would be quite intrigued if someone told me otherwise (and had a sound reason for saying so).

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    This play is so rare it is the only index play that slips by me without considering it as often as not. If you use a heat averse index the play is even more rare. To answer your question if you make sure the suit sees you split at a minimum bet first it can help but if someone is looking at your play and missed that it isn't going to help. Assessing the heat factor is much more valuable than trying to sell you are an idiot. Yeah the suit saw it but what about the EITS. Advantage accumulates fast after the index is exceeded as for every count splitting T,Tv 5 or 6 has a really strong correlation to the play's EORs. Just add a couple to the index and only use it in shops that it doesn't raise too much heat or when you know you are about to leave. No need to get BO'ed for a minimal gain. If you are going to risk the play make sure the reward is worth the risk. The risk is different depending on store and shift.

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    Quote Originally Posted by NotEnoughHeat View Post
    Perhaps someone could provide figures.
    S17:
    Not much gain at the index for HILO. At the index you have almost a 70% advantage standing. You get about a 5% increase in advantage for every +1 increment in TC starting with a few percent at the index. The gain from standing is minimal as the count increases.

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    You can wait until Hi-Low +7 to make this play instead of +4, you will make the play a quarter as often but still get over 50% of the possible expectation. For the Zen Count this translates to waiting until a True Count of +13 for 10-10 vs 6.

    See Mathprofs 1998 POM in the BJ21 Archives Titled
    Nov 1998: Splitting 10s: Simulations Results (Long)


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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Good answer T3: I've done alot of work of this with sims as it can cut to the bottomline of monthly income. Throwing out splitting 10 vs 4,5,6 will reduce the Winrate gratly be SCORE not quite as signigicant. Upping the 4 a notch or two in the indice changes the overall performance very slightly. I finally decided to throw out the 4 and only split 5,6, as suggested part of the Don's Ill 18. This move is probably okay it Vegas, but I'd like to here if it's in some the midwesterners repertoire, likr Moo, Ex, and muff?
    I have to admit that I've not used this play enough. Exactly once (against a 6 with a good + and max bet out). Worked like a charm. I vow to start using it more. Truth is, I haven't been playing enough to see this circumstance much but that is going to change soon.

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    Splitting 10s hasn't come up too often for me either. The last few times I had an opportunity to, it either passed over my head or I consciously decided not to do it, though there is one 10,10 v 5 I split I've done in the past 2-3 weeks. I only consider the option against a 5 or 6.

    Early on in my career I split 10s against a 6 on a super high count, and I kept getting 10s and re-splitting them (receiving the 10s didn't drop the monster count low enough). I think there was 4-5 max bet hands out. The dealer ended up getting a strong pat hand. The move has definitely left a bad taste in my mouth. Funnily enough, I would have won all the bets if the anchor played basic strategy, but I've never blamed him. He might have been able to help me were the cards slightly different.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bigplayer View Post
    You can wait until Hi-Low +7 to make this play instead of +4, you will make the play a quarter as often but still get over 50% of the possible expectation. For the Zen Count this translates to waiting until a True Count of +13 for 10-10 vs 6.

    See Mathprofs 1998 POM in the BJ21 Archives Titled
    Nov 1998: Splitting 10s: Simulations Results (Long)
    Yes. I totally get that and I love that strategy. I also seem to remember KJ talking about how he splits tens if the count goes to some really high level as well. But I was mainly asking if it would be worthwhile to do if you also split tens at low counts for cover. Would this low count split be worthwhile to your EV for splitting at higher counts? Maybe not. I suspect that the low count split would not offset the high count split in terms of heat (and maybe not financially either). I was just throwing it out there as an idea. I don't think I would do it at local stores but doing it at a store I am just visiting and won't return to could be possible if doing so does not hurt too much financially. What if you split at a high count first and then later split at a low count in case they decide to watch you? Of course, by then they may have already started their analysis of your play and it wouldn't matter anyway.
    I'll say this. Splitting 10s with other people at the table will really test whether or not you truly believe in the counter maxim around here of "there are other people at the table?" Why should we care what other people at the table think? Unless of course their negativity toward you draws so much attention that now the pit is even getting annoyed with you. Nothing I know of gets a table more fired up than splitting 10s.
    I know that splitting 10s in favorable circumstances draws so much attention, but it is also high up on the Illustrious 18 so I would love to find a way to do it at times when the count justifies it. It's hard to leave that money on the table. If only there were a way that didn't draw heat!

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    Quote Originally Posted by counter19 View Post
    But I was mainly asking if it would be worthwhile to do if you also split tens at low counts for cover.
    I wouldn't recommend it. It's a massively expensive error to make and if you rarely split 10-10 anyway what's the point. Now there may well be some circumstances where you may want to intentionally look like a crazy person (for instance if you know you're being skills checked at that very moment) but there are other things you can do that are far less expensive than splitting 10-10 when you don't have the count in your favor. For maximum effect you'd need to split 10-10 in an obviously minus count. You'd be better off splitting 2-2 or 3-3 vs 9 or doubling for less on a hard 12 or some such play would be cheaper.

    If you feel like you need to do this stuff to justify splitting 10-10 later, maybe you just shouldn't do it at all. Nothing wrong with that.

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    Quote Originally Posted by bigplayer View Post
    If you feel like you need to do this stuff to justify splitting 10-10 later, maybe you just shouldn't do it at all. Nothing wrong with that.
    I pretty much figured that this is what it would amount to. Your answer is exactly what I expected to hear. I personally couldn't find any reason to justify it, but thought it might be possible with come clever misdirection that maybe somebody else found. Unfortunately, it seems that the only cover for this play is how the player portrays him/herself, and maybe that would not even work. The move is just so extreme to everybody in the casino.

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