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Thread: busting percentages for dealer by count

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    busting percentages for dealer by count

    I found the bust percentage "28.36% on any given hand" elsewhere, and was curious if anyone knew how the count would affect that. The reason I ask is a blackjack machine (full table, no human dealer, 8 decks) has a side bet related to the dealer busting. It pays 2:1 on 3,4 cards, 4:1 on 5 cards, and 15x on 6 cards (and I think it even had a 7 card paying 100x). Clearly it's designed to make money for the machine, but I wonder at some point if the count is very low (?) this could actually be a profitable bet. I could probably write a simulation program to test counts, but it would take a while - be better if someone has already explored this and it's public info.

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    Senior Member Bodarc's Avatar
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    thanks, that is precisely the info. I need to see the payoff scale on the table, I could swear it was 2x (2:1 ?) for 3 cards and his example shows 1:1. Have to see if '2x' really means 1:1. What's a little strange is another site I found showed the dealer bust for counts (-6 to 12) and the bust was lower for low counts, so it seemed like there was no possibility of exploiting this (never approached 30%). His analysis concluded "moderate vulnerability to advantage play" so there's need for more investigation.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jamesrav View Post
    thanks, that is precisely the info. I need to see the payoff scale on the table, I could swear it was 2x (2:1 ?) for 3 cards and his example shows 1:1. Have to see if '2x' really means 1:1. What's a little strange is another site I found showed the dealer bust for counts (-6 to 12) and the bust was lower for low counts, so it seemed like there was no possibility of exploiting this (never approached 30%). His analysis concluded "moderate vulnerability to advantage play" so there's need for more investigation.
    The buster side bet would be much easier to exploit if it paid the same on all dealers busts. The best opportunity would be presumably when the count is high and the deck is full of 10s. Your source for the dealer having a lower busting probability for low counts is probably right. However an important consideration is that the amount of cards the dealer busts affects payout. This gives value to low cards that may not necessarily contribute to the busting probability, but are required in multi-card busts. So cards that have a negative EOR (ranks that make the bet better when they remain in the deck) may actually contribute to a lower busting chance since they make it more likely to hit the higher payouts when the dealer does bust.

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    Senior Member Bodarc's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by NotEnoughHeat View Post
    The buster side bet would be much easier to exploit if it paid the same on all dealers busts.
    Isn't that kind of like saying basketball would be much easier to exploit if it was played in the water?
    Play within your bankroll, pick your games with care and learn everything you can about the game. The winning will come. It has to. It's in the cards. -- Bryce Carlson

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    Quote Originally Posted by Bodarc View Post
    Isn't that kind of like saying basketball would be much easier to exploit if it was played in the water?
    ha, maybe. I admit, that was a bit of needless and irrelevant observation on my part. I guess I was just trying to point out that using a count to beat the side bet would have to rely on more than simply the likelihood of a bust at a certain count to be effective (that is the probability of higher payout multi-card busts should not be ignored).

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    Dealer Bust Rates for -10 to +10 HiLo

    Folks,

    Blackjack players share a common myth that the dealer's bust rate changes dramatically with the TC: in fact, as shown in the figure below, the dealer's bust rate is quite uniform over a broad range of HiLo TC's, with the highest rate at TC's near zero.

    Thus, as has been indicated elsewhere in this thread, this sidebet cannot be beaten on bust rate alone: you must rely on the multi-card busts.

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand

    Dealer Bust Rate 2.png
    Attached Images Attached Images

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    Quote Originally Posted by NotEnoughHeat View Post
    The buster side bet would be much easier to exploit if it paid the same on all dealers busts. The best opportunity would be presumably when the count is high and the deck is full of 10s. Your source for the dealer having a lower busting probability for low counts is probably right. However an important consideration is that the amount of cards the dealer busts affects payout. This gives value to low cards that may not necessarily contribute to the busting probability, but are required in multi-card busts. So cards that have a negative EOR (ranks that make the bet better when they remain in the deck) may actually contribute to a lower busting chance since they make it more likely to hit the higher payouts when the dealer does bust.
    the article cited was thorough and I did find the payout, which unfortunately was not one that could be taken advantage of. The table is totally unused and unmonitored (and not in the US), so any method of counting was possible. What's funny is there is even another side bet (wording in Spanish unfortunately, which I speak and can read fairly well, but this bet is rather verbose and odd, something involving cards in a sequence or values in-between I think) and while I'm slowly losing my money playing basic strategy some guy comes along and wins this side bet multiple times in about 15 minutes to the tune of $100 and I doubt he was betting more than $2 a time. Does anyone know of another side bet in California based blackjack tables besides the buster one?

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    Not familiar with California but it sounds like the in between side bet.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    Not familiar with California but it sounds like the in between side bet.
    thanks, indeed it is. His analysis shows little chance to benefit from it. I'll have to stick with just card counting. My only concern now would be if a computerized table can be trusted once the bets get large during good count periods.

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    There's really not much here. There isn't any card that really pushes it much one way or the other. all 5s and 10s would be great for 3 card bust. But it sucks for the other options.
    The Cash Cow.

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    I have always found it one of the more interesting statistics of blackjack that the dealer breaks most frequently off the top of the deck and, subsequently, at TCs of zero. And, whether the goes negative or positive, the bust rate decreases in both directions!

    Not intuitive to most people. Easy to understand in negative counts. Lots of small cards left. Harder to understand for positive counts, until you realize that, while the dealer actually bust his 2-6 much more frequently in these situations, he also GETS 2-6 much less frequently than what is normal.

    Don

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    This Dealer Bust Rate chart explains it all. See the differences between low cards (2-6) and high cards in high counts.
    Conditions are 6D S17 DOA DAS Peek HiLo
    DealerBusrRates.jpg

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