Lucky Lucky side bet pay table change

[BlackHead]

The Lucky Lucky pay tables have changed. it now pays 10 to 1 on suited 21s rather than 15 to 1. I'm using the lucky lucky count (-1,+1,+1,0,0,-1,-2,-2,0,1) from ap heat at trigger true count +2. The average EV for this bet is averages at 5% according to Eliot. I can't figure out what is the EV for the new payable.

I've tried to figure it out myself on CVDATA but no luck I can't get the same results as Eliot for any of the side bets especially lucky ladies.






Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[moo321]

It's going to hurt it a LOT. I think I may know which casino this is .

I'm calculating a shift of 2.64% in the HA, based on the wizard's numbers:

http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackj...toc-LuckyLucky

So, essentially you're doubling the House Advantage. Assuming the same EORs, the new trigger would be north of +5.

And the EORs are not going to be the same. The house advantage would be reduced less be removal of disadvantageous cards, because the payout is lowered. I won't even try to speculate on the change, but a quick-and-dirty guess is that your edge is less than 1/3 what it is under the normal paytable.

[BlackHead]

That's what I figured what a shame this side bet has helped me play for as long as I wanted with no heat in the past. Thankfully I know of one more spot with the full-pay not in Vegas tho =)


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[BlackHead]

I'm working hard at learning the math to figure this out on my own but it feels like I'm years away.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Three]

It looks like it about doubles the HE.

[Dog Hand]

I'm working hard at learning the math to figure this out on my own but it feels like I'm years away.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

BlackHead,

The change in the house edge is easy to determine here.

First, go to the Wizard of Odds' website at http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/8/ and scroll down until you find the "Lucky Lucky" information (or just search for that phrase). You'll see that WoO calculated the usual paytable gives a player's edge of -0.026556 (so about -2.66%). He also showed that the 15:1 normal payout for Suited 21 provides 0.079492 (so 7.95%) of the return.

Therefore, if the Suited 21 payout is decreased from 15:1 to 10:1, the return for this hand will fall by one-third, or 2.65%, so the player's edge overall will become -2.66% + (-2.65%) = -5.31%.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

[Three]

Therefore, if the Suited 21 payout is decreased from 15:1 to 10:1, the return for this hand will fall by one-third, or 2.65%, so the player's edge overall will become -2.66% + (-2.65%) = -5.31%.

Thanks for explaining it to him. That was what I did to determine the HE is about doubled. I didn't need to actually do the math to get it though. It was an obvious one (at least to me). Others are not so obvious and the math is required.

[BlackHead]

BlackHead,

The change in the house edge is easy to determine here.

First, go to the Wizard of Odds' website at http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/8/ and scroll down until you find the "Lucky Lucky" information (or just search for that phrase). You'll see that WoO calculated the usual paytable gives a player's edge of -0.026556 (so about -2.66%). He also showed that the 15:1 normal payout for Suited 21 provides 0.079492 (so 7.95%) of the return.

Therefore, if the Suited 21 payout is decreased from 15:1 to 10:1, the return for this hand will fall by one-third, or 2.65%, so the player's edge overall will become -2.66% + (-2.65%) = -5.31%.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

Thank you dog hand. I'll take it at TC 4 then because each TC raises the edge by about 1.30%.

Also for whomever is concerned a trick that I use is count the side bet for the first two to three rounds and if hi-lo or the side bet count drastically drop one and keep the other. Usually when one goes up the other goes down for the most part. When your being scrutinized just use the side bet count and spread to two hands on negative count if the side bet is TC is up in the clouds. The pit boss was nice enough to explain to me that it was a sucker bet after being down mostly from counting. Right after I hit the 678 unsuited three times in 2 hours and still no heat! Also you can spread more drastically on your max betting cycles from time to time on two hands on DD.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[moo321]

Don't do that. Each TC is worth 1.3% on the full paytable. The EOR will be less with a different paytable.

[muckz]

Keep in mimd changes like this are to stop advantage play.

[Dog Hand]

The Lucky Lucky pay tables have changed. it now pays 10 to 1 on suited 21s rather than 15 to 1. I'm using the lucky lucky count (-1,+1,+1,0,0,-1,-2,-2,0,1) from ap heat at trigger true count +2. The average EV for this bet is averages at 5% according to Eliot. I can't figure out what is the EV for the new payable.

I've tried to figure it out myself on CVDATA but no luck I can't get the same results as Eliot for any of the side bets especially lucky ladies.<snip>

BlackHead,

I began by calculating the house edge and the Effect of Removal (EoR) for each of the various ranks by applying Combinatorial Analysis in Excel. Here are those results for a 6D game (they'd differ a bit for 8D):

Pay Table S21 10:1

Original Pay Table

Hand
Paytable

Hand
Paytable

Suited 777
200

Suited 777
200

Suited 678
100

Suited 678
100

Unsuited 777
50

Unsuited 777
50

Unsuited 678
30

Unsuited 678
30

Suited 21
10

Suited 21
15

Unsuited 21
3

Unsuited 21
3

Any 20
2

Any 20
2

Any 19
2

Any 19
2

Loser
-1

Loser
-1







Edge
-5.3120%

Edge
-2.6623%

A
-0.2670%

A
-0.2845%

2
0.2624%

2
0.2700%

3
0.2032%

3
0.2093%

4
0.1427%

4
0.1467%

5
0.0922%

5
0.0952%

6
-0.3330%

6
-0.3284%

7
-0.6417%

7
-0.6377%

8
-0.4012%

8
-0.4002%

9
0.0816%

9
0.0795%

10
0.2151%

10
0.2125%

J
0.2151%

J
0.2125%

Q
0.2151%

Q
0.2125%

K
0.2151%

K
0.2125%

As shown, the effect of lowering the payout on the Suited 21 to 10:1 from the original 15:1 produces an overall player's advantage of -5.3120% vs. the original -2.6623%. However, this change has very little effect on the EoR values, so the New Lucky Lucky Count (NLLC) tags (as I named them when I posted my original research on this topic back in 2009 on the Green Chip pages at http://www.bj21.com/greenchip/misc_b...lucky-results/) of -1, +1, +1, 0, 0, -1, -2, -2, 0, +1 will still function adequately.

I then ran two 1-billion-round CVData sims for a 6D, S17, DA2, DAS game with 4.75/6 pen (so 65 cards cut off) for a heads-up AP playing one spot and flat-betting $100. In the first sim, the AP bet $100 on the sidebet on every round. Those results showed that the new paytable requires a NLLC true count of +4 to be +EV (as you correctly guessed elsewhere in this thread). In the second sim, the AP still flat-bet $100/rd on BJ and, when the TC was +4 or higher, he also bet $100 on the sidebet. Here are the sidebet results from this second sim:

Units Bet
# Won
EV
WR

TOT
85,457,584
21,262,333
4.38%
$37.40

34
1

-100.00%
$0.00

33
1

-100.00%
$0.00

32
2
1
100.00%
$0.00

31
5
2
40.00%
$0.00

30
17
3
-47.06%
$0.00

29
45
12
371.11%
$0.00

28
63
9
33.33%
$0.00

27
202
70
173.27%
$0.00

26
301
85
75.42%
$0.00

25
551
153
23.78%
$0.00

24
1,391
390
48.81%
$0.01

23
2,205
579
25.13%
$0.01

22
4,168
1,111
29.97%
$0.01

21
7,968
2,197
37.16%
$0.03

20
15,839
4,170
35.87%
$0.06

19
26,873
7,123
31.61%
$0.08

18
47,606
12,673
28.41%
$0.14

17
80,712
21,315
25.06%
$0.20

16
140,084
36,707
21.63%
$0.30

15
223,668
58,403
20.56%
$0.46

14
370,912
96,558
19.22%
$0.71

13
617,299
159,422
17.50%
$1.08

12
977,002
251,641
14.77%
$1.44

11
1,467,176
375,548
13.11%
$1.92

10
2,386,035
609,058
11.75%
$2.80

9
3,635,245
922,700
9.69%
$3.52

8
5,586,487
1,409,321
7.94%
$4.44

7
8,220,134
2,060,888
6.22%
$5.11

6
12,891,410
3,209,843
4.39%
$5.66

5
19,148,704
4,741,195
2.94%
$5.62

4
29,605,478
7,281,156
1.28%
$3.78

As these results show, the AP earns $37.40/hr from the sidebet. When he places the sidebet, he has an average edge of 4.38%, and he wins just under one-quarter of his sidebet wagers. Unfortunately, he loses more $37.40/hr by flat-betting and playing B.S. for the BJ bet, so overall he's losing $5.67/hr. Now if you could find a game with better rules (say LS, for instance), better pen (recall I used 4.75/6 pen), or where you can bet MORE on the SB than on the BJ, you could get +EV even from the new, bad, paytable. Conversely, worse rules (H17, 8D) and worse pen (even additional players) will hurt.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

P.S. If you need help running the sidebet in CVData, just ask and I can talk you through it.

P.P.S. Norm, am I missing some better method of posting Excel spreadsheets?

[BlackHead]

BlackHead,

I began by calculating the house edge and the Effect of Removal (EoR) for each of the various ranks by applying Combinatorial Analysis in Excel. Here are those results for a 6D game (they'd differ a bit for 8D):

Pay Table S21 10:1

Original Pay Table

Hand
Paytable

Hand
Paytable

Suited 777
200

Suited 777
200

Suited 678
100

Suited 678
100

Unsuited 777
50

Unsuited 777
50

Unsuited 678
30

Unsuited 678
30

Suited 21
10

Suited 21
15

Unsuited 21
3

Unsuited 21
3

Any 20
2

Any 20
2

Any 19
2

Any 19
2

Loser
-1

Loser
-1







Edge
-5.3120%

Edge
-2.6623%

A
-0.2670%

A
-0.2845%

2
0.2624%

2
0.2700%

3
0.2032%

3
0.2093%

4
0.1427%

4
0.1467%

5
0.0922%

5
0.0952%

6
-0.3330%

6
-0.3284%

7
-0.6417%

7
-0.6377%

8
-0.4012%

8
-0.4002%

9
0.0816%

9
0.0795%

10
0.2151%

10
0.2125%

J
0.2151%

J
0.2125%

Q
0.2151%

Q
0.2125%

K
0.2151%

K
0.2125%

As shown, the effect of lowering the payout on the Suited 21 to 10:1 from the original 15:1 produces an overall player's advantage of -5.3120% vs. the original -2.6623%. However, this change has very little effect on the EoR values, so the New Lucky Lucky Count (NLLC) tags (as I named them when I posted my original research on this topic back in 2009 on the Green Chip pages at http://www.bj21.com/greenchip/misc_b...lucky-results/) of -1, +1, +1, 0, 0, -1, -2, -2, 0, +1 will still function adequately.

I then ran two 1-billion-round CVData sims for a 6D, S17, DA2, DAS game with 4.75/6 pen (so 65 cards cut off) for a heads-up AP playing one spot and flat-betting $100. In the first sim, the AP bet $100 on the sidebet on every round. Those results showed that the new paytable requires a NLLC true count of +4 to be +EV (as you correctly guessed elsewhere in this thread). In the second sim, the AP still flat-bet $100/rd on BJ and, when the TC was +4 or higher, he also bet $100 on the sidebet. Here are the sidebet results from this second sim:

Units Bet
# Won
EV
WR

TOT
85,457,584
21,262,333
4.38%
$37.40

34
1

-100.00%
$0.00

33
1

-100.00%
$0.00

32
2
1
100.00%
$0.00

31
5
2
40.00%
$0.00

30
17
3
-47.06%
$0.00

29
45
12
371.11%
$0.00

28
63
9
33.33%
$0.00

27
202
70
173.27%
$0.00

26
301
85
75.42%
$0.00

25
551
153
23.78%
$0.00

24
1,391
390
48.81%
$0.01

23
2,205
579
25.13%
$0.01

22
4,168
1,111
29.97%
$0.01

21
7,968
2,197
37.16%
$0.03

20
15,839
4,170
35.87%
$0.06

19
26,873
7,123
31.61%
$0.08

18
47,606
12,673
28.41%
$0.14

17
80,712
21,315
25.06%
$0.20

16
140,084
36,707
21.63%
$0.30

15
223,668
58,403
20.56%
$0.46

14
370,912
96,558
19.22%
$0.71

13
617,299
159,422
17.50%
$1.08

12
977,002
251,641
14.77%
$1.44

11
1,467,176
375,548
13.11%
$1.92

10
2,386,035
609,058
11.75%
$2.80

9
3,635,245
922,700
9.69%
$3.52

8
5,586,487
1,409,321
7.94%
$4.44

7
8,220,134
2,060,888
6.22%
$5.11

6
12,891,410
3,209,843
4.39%
$5.66

5
19,148,704
4,741,195
2.94%
$5.62

4
29,605,478
7,281,156
1.28%
$3.78

As these results show, the AP earns $37.40/hr from the sidebet. When he places the sidebet, he has an average edge of 4.38%, and he wins just under one-quarter of his sidebet wagers. Unfortunately, he loses more $37.40/hr by flat-betting and playing B.S. for the BJ bet, so overall he's losing $5.67/hr. Now if you could find a game with better rules (say LS, for instance), better pen (recall I used 4.75/6 pen), or where you can bet MORE on the SB than on the BJ, you could get +EV even from the new, bad, paytable. Conversely, worse rules (H17, 8D) and worse pen (even additional players) will hurt.

Hope this helps!

Dog Hand

P.S. If you need help running the sidebet in CVData, just ask and I can talk you through it.

P.P.S. Norm, am I missing some better method of posting Excel spreadsheets?

Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[BlackHead]

Thanks again Dog Hand your help is greatly appreciated. That'll be awesome if you can walk me through running the side bet on CVData. I only play the DD version with pen up to the 29th card with 1-4 hands at the max which is $25.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk