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Thread: What will happen if...?? Can't wait to know!!

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    What will happen if...?? Can't wait to know!!

    My idea is to check many blackjack tables until I find a table with 3 players.
    Then, looking at the dealer waiting for her to WIN 5 straight turns (means she doesn't go above 21 for 5 straight turns)
    Then, when I finally found a table with 3 players and dealer haven't lost for 5 straight turns I, I sit down.
    Now, I'm going like this:
    First bet: $100
    Second bet: $200
    Third bet: $400
    Fourth Bet: $800
    Fifth bet: $1600

    If I win the bet, I leave the table.
    My plan is to never hit above 11, so only if the dealer didn't lose for 10 straight times and I didn't win 1 of 5 then I lost $3200. (or maybe its better to hit?)
    My plan is to do it 3 times a day,
    first time at morning, second at afternoon, and then at night. Means that if I win all day i'll be earning $300 a day without blackjacks. Which means that I will earn what I'm risking ($3200) in about 10 days without blackjacks! might be 8 or 9 days with blackjacks.

    What do you think will happen then?
    Dying to know, please let me know your thoughts.

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    Foolish.

    Please forget about it.

    Martingale is a proven loser.

    And you will look REAL stupid.

    Ouchez

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    Quote Originally Posted by kapit600 View Post
    What do you think will happen then?
    Dying to know, please let me know your thoughts.
    You will lose a ****load of money.

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    Senior Member steveistheman84's Avatar
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    when you have your last $1600 on the table, thinking, "i can't possibly lose 5 hands in a row.....right?", and you get dealt a 16 against a dealer's 10, you're going to want to throw up.

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    Quote Originally Posted by steveistheman84 View Post
    when you have your last $1600 on the table, thinking, "i can't possibly lose 5 hands in a row.....right?", and you get dealt a 16 against a dealer's 10, you're going to want to throw up.
    Another possibility: when you have your last $1600 on the table, thinking, "i can't possibly lose 5 hands in a row...right?", and you get dealt 8,8 against a dealer's 4, you're going to want to throw up since you don't have another $1600 to split. (This happened to me, but for only $50; either way, it sickened me to wave it off and hope the dealer busted. She didnt.)

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    Senior Member happyjack21's Avatar
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    This is what I would do. I'd take your 100$ first bet and buy Casino Verite. It's worth it. Go ahead and read Norm's Modern Blackjack while you're at it, it's free.
    With your 200 dollar bet I would advise you to buy a shoe, a discard tray, some ceramic chips, and a bunch of BJ books that have good recommendations. Wong, Snyder, Schlesinger, Mason Malmuth, stuff like that.
    Then try measure your martingale system in Casino Verite and see how effective it is (it won't be) You can then decide if you want to go with some methods taught in readily available books, or play basic strategy, or just be a ploppy.

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    You are not the first to come up with this idea.

    The Wizard of Odds is a great resource. Please read this page: http://wizardofodds.com/gambling/betting-systems/

    It should answer your questions.

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    There are lots of small problems in your plan (and a few large ones) which come from a poor understanding of key concepts in probability. In all seriousness, I would advise you to avoid casinos indefinitely. I have known problem gamblers, and your excitement is familiar.

    However, IF you ignore the advice of everyone on this forum and go ahead with your plan, I would suggest the following amendment: don't spread it over 10 days. Spreading the bets out will not change your chances of winning, so why waste the time?

    In fact, scrap the whole plan, and just put $3200 on a single hand of baccarat. Your chances of ending up ahead are MUCH higher if you do this. Almost 50%.

    Quote Originally Posted by kapit600 View Post
    (or maybe its better to hit?)
    That would be a start. There's a reason people hit in Blackjack - it sometimes improves their chances of winning. Winning is essential to your plan, if I understand it correctly, so you should play according to basic strategy.

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    Your chances of winning a hand in BJ is roughly 43%.
    You'll push about 9% and lose about 48% of the time.

    It is extremely easy to lose 5, 10, 15 hands in succession.

    You and millions of others think otherwise.
    There is, and always has been, a never-ending
    stream of people who try this at various games.
    The result is always the same. Yes, always !
    The gambler imagines that he has found a money tree.
    He is excited that he has won every time that he played.
    But after the second session, or the third, or the 9th,
    or whatever, he simply loses all of his money.


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    I dealt to a gentleman the other night in high limit who won two hands the entire shoe. Six decks, he won two hands. Theoretically, you never have to win a hand just because you lost X hands in a row. Mathematically it is called entropy, except this isn't a system which you can measure entropy in the context you see it in. Like all games of chance, previous results have no relevance on future outcomes. There was a time that I played Baccarat. I won no less than two hundred dollars a session for six weeks in a row, save twice. I lost four hundred once and two hundred once. Does that mean that my Baccarat system is flawless and that I have found the Holy Grail of gambling? No, it means I was really bored late at night and I was really lucky. There is no system or progression that will earn in the long run.

    I used to deal to a player who was successful with a Martingale system similar to the one that you described. At one point he was ahead over 50K. Inevitably, he gave it all back plus some. If you are willing to risk that much money, buy an undervalued small cap stock, you have a greater gain potential and less risk.

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    Thank you all for your thoughts, I appreciate it.
    To be honest, I was trying to do this on Verite BlackJack.
    After every hand I waited and won, I shuffeled again like i'm going to a new table. always played with 3 players on table.
    in about the 17th round, I lost 5 in a row. which means I lost about 50% of the money.
    Then I was able to go 40 straight rounds without a loss.
    I guess, At the end - it looks like odds stays the same 43% to the player and 48% to casino.

  12. #12
    Senior Member happyjack21's Avatar
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    I remember the first time I lost ~20 bets in a row (essentially maybe a win or two, TC~3) on Casino Verite.
    From my limited playing experience I had never seen it happen like that but knew to expect it.
    That's when I saw what negative variance firsthand. It taught me a lesson that's for sure.

    Not saying it's going to happen to you but just wanted to share that there are some wild possibilities in blackjack.

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    Quote Originally Posted by happyjack21 View Post
    I remember the first time I lost ~20 bets in a row (essentially maybe a win or two, TC~3) on Casino Verite.
    From my limited playing experience I had never seen it happen like that but knew to expect it.
    That's when I saw what negative variance firsthand. It taught me a lesson that's for sure.

    Not saying it's going to happen to you but just wanted to share that there are some wild possibilities in blackjack.
    I like this post as a good reference point.

    Things like these are anomalies that do occur but very infrequently, however, the more you play the greater the chance of encountering one of these brutal downswings. In the same instance though, there are times when the variance is the complete opposite. The "Long Run" is just a compilation of the short term over a given period of time. The reason that the casino wins in the long run is that there is an inherent advantage for them and they have enough money to withstand high amounts of variance in the short run. So while a progression system may seem to work in the short term, against a game that has you at a mathematical disadvantage every time you play, you will end up losing.

    The only card game that you can in theory win every hand in would be baccarat, you decide which hand to bet. You can only bet one side of the table in BJ but does this mean that just because you choose which hand to bet, that baccarat is a beatable game? People have been trying to crack the code to baccarat since the beginning of its creation but I still think that for all the crazy betting systems etc, you're better off betting the banker every hand. The reason that blackjack can be beaten is well, pretty obvious if you're here.

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