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Thread: Amount of EV to sacrifice as cover play

  1. #1


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    Amount of EV to sacrifice as cover play

    Sometimes at my casino, I will throw in twenty minutes of cover play at a negative expectation game, such as a CSM dealt blackjack (although after comps the house edge is arguably reduced to virtually nil), baccarat or even roulette. What is the proportion of your EV you are prepared to sacrifice for the purposes of preserving your viability at a venue?

    My personal opinion is, 10-15%, including tips, is a reasonable percentage. After all the house probably will return that amount from the house edge to the basic strategy player.

  2. #2


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    My understanding is that this type of cover play is largely overrated. If they see you counting at blackjack, they are going to stop you from playing blackjack. Things that trigger scrutiny like a large spread are still going to get you looked at, regardless of how much roulette play you have on your card.

    There are occasions though where a carnival game progressive gets high enough to make it neutral EV. If you are worried about a large lifetime win amount you might find it easier to manufacture losses at a game other than blackjack.

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    I'm willing to give up splitting tens, maybe doubling a,9 and that's it. I'm not sure playing other games for cover (most likely at smaller stakes) really accomplishes much. Most hardcore recreational gamblers have a game they know fairly well or at least think they do and stick to it for the most part, so it might not be doing anything for you. My philosophy is to be sure you know what you're going to get out of it if you give something back. If I have a question or any doubt about what it accomplishes, then I'm going to lean towards aggression.

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    Thank you very much for your advice and wisdom.
    My immediate "problem" is that I have won eight out of the nine sessions I have played at my casino.
    Next time I will walk away when I have achieved a moderate loss - that is IF I ever get to that much in the hole.

  5. #5


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    Also, my casino is small enough for all the above games to be supervised by one pit boss.

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    So play several short sessions and rat-hole a little bit. Just showing that you actually have lost / can lose can be good. I wouldn't intentionally throw money away. Playing a CSM might help. Probably won't. If you're gonna do it, then you really gotta sell it. A few 20 minute sessions won't cut it.
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

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    Yes, I do rat-hole, although the last few times, not nearly enough to give the impression that I was losing.

    In my CSM cover play I don't necessarily bet the minimum. I will progressively increase my bets if I'm winning, to give a semblance of what I was doing in the shoe games. I do it when I Wong out of the shoe game when the count is too negative to play the shoe out.

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by mickeymouse View Post
    What is the proportion of your EV you are prepared to sacrifice for the purposes of preserving your viability at a venue?
    I'm a red chipper. I don't worry about cover. I'll re-evaluate when I'm consistently playing black.
    May the cards fall in your favor.

  9. #9


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    Hey, Mickey!

    Since you used the term "my casino", I'm guessing this is a local joint that you don't want to burn. Also, it must be a very small joint if one person can supervise all games. I think this is probably a VERY common scenario for a ton of recreational gamblers and there's just not much written about the issue of longevity in these settings. The problem is how to keep playing there for years at an advantage and not get the boot.

    To me, this is a different issue than the typical 'take 'em for everything as fast as possible' case that most people think of when they think about card counting. IMHO, AP at a small, local joint that you frequent A LOT is a whole different smoke and you need a different set of rules... You seem to have a good feel for what it takes to keep the Welcome mat out.

    Just my 2 cents.

    Best of luck to you!
    SiMi

  10. #10


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    You're thinking about it wrong. Don't give up a fixed % of your edge. Give up whatever you have to give up to still get a good edge. If you can play optimally, do that. If ten splitting is going to create problems, maybe don't split tens. If betting $100 draws attention, go $5-95.
    The Cash Cow.

  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by mickeymouse View Post
    Sometimes at my casino, I will throw in twenty minutes of cover play at a negative expectation game, such as a CSM dealt blackjack (although after comps the house edge is arguably reduced to virtually nil), baccarat or even roulette. What is the proportion of your EV you are prepared to sacrifice for the purposes of preserving your viability at a venue?

    My personal opinion is, 10-15%, including tips, is a reasonable percentage. After all the house probably will return that amount from the house edge to the basic strategy player.
    Never "give up" your edge unless you need to for tolerance purposes, if you're poised as a longevity player, that is. Don't play "obvious" negative expectation games, and don't play as an "obvious" counter.

    I was just watching a video the other day from Gambling with an Edge, where they had a guest, "surveillance agent Jay", where he talks about the "checklist" that they go through for counters. At the top of that list is refusing to play rated/refusing a card, and then other things like wearing a hat, glasses, essentially not wanting to be "seen", and other stuff like "white 20 something male" etc.

    The funny thing was, when I watched that video ( and I'll post it on the forum if Norm is okay with it ) when he went through his "checklist" I immediately pictured a local guy that I had noticed that fits the description PERFECTLY.

    Which is why I'm a HUGE proponent of playing rated and learning how to properly rathole chips. If playing unrated/refusing a card is one of the first things they look for, then that needs to be the first thing I "satisfy" for the checklist so they can look the other way.

    Quote Originally Posted by Joss View Post
    My understanding is that this type of cover play is largely overrated. If they see you counting at blackjack, they are going to stop you from playing blackjack. Things that trigger scrutiny like a large spread are still going to get you looked at, regardless of how much roulette play you have on your card.

    There are occasions though where a carnival game progressive gets high enough to make it neutral EV. If you are worried about a large lifetime win amount you might find it easier to manufacture losses at a game other than blackjack.
    Correct, there's no amount of "losing after you win" that will "divert" them from the fact that they think you were counting on ONE game. They will view it essentially as blackjack being the ATM and you taking higher risk/reward shots on their money throughout the casino, and they don't want that happening, and neither do you.

    Quote Originally Posted by mickeymouse View Post
    Thank you very much for your advice and wisdom.
    My immediate "problem" is that I have won eight out of the nine sessions I have played at my casino.
    Next time I will walk away when I have achieved a moderate loss - that is IF I ever get to that much in the hole.
    Do they "know" you won? I win 8/10 or 9/10 session I play, regularly, but the casino only ever "sees" me win 1/10, lose 3/10, and "push" about 6/10. Why? because I rathole chips like its my job, because it actually is.

    Do NOT lose intentionally or walk when you are down to "provide" cover. Half the time when they have "made" you, they are waiting for you to lose so they can ban you, down money. Next time, go in, make money, WO to the bathroom but take your chips because you "don't trust anyone" and when you come back, oh look at that, your chips are a little lighter but nobody can notice because of the way that you stack your chips and/or interlace your chips on the table like you've played poker before.

    Quote Originally Posted by mickeymouse View Post
    Also, my casino is small enough for all the above games to be supervised by one pit boss.
    If this is the case, I wouldn't worry about it unless your play is blatantly obvious.

    Quote Originally Posted by RollingStoned View Post
    So play several short sessions and rat-hole a little bit. Just showing that you actually have lost / can lose can be good. I wouldn't intentionally throw money away. Playing a CSM might help. Probably won't. If you're gonna do it, then you really gotta sell it. A few 20 minute sessions won't cut it.
    Precisely my thoughts!

    Quote Originally Posted by mickeymouse View Post
    Yes, I do rat-hole, although the last few times, not nearly enough to give the impression that I was losing.

    In my CSM cover play I don't necessarily bet the minimum. I will progressively increase my bets if I'm winning, to give a semblance of what I was doing in the shoe games. I do it when I Wong out of the shoe game when the count is too negative to play the shoe out.
    Don't do that. If they watch you play one way on a shoe/pitch and then another way on a CSM, they'll know you are trying to cover. Learn to rathole, and I mean RATHOLE those chips. In almost every trip that I take to the casino, at some point I've taken about 100-300 off the table without them noticing. Sometimes I've even done it in red chips, which is crazy, but you have to know when to do it in large amounts, and when not to do it in large amounts, and never try to rathole a black chip unless you are a black chipper. If a table looks like it needs a chipfill, wait before you rathole, use that moment when they are filling, to get off the table to rathole a mini-stack of chips, and then return. Its opportunities like those where you'll be able to get away with your largest ratholes without anyone noticing or caring. Just don't play forever with red chips and try to rathole $500 in red chips, you'll look obvious. Periodically ask for a green or two, and by the 4th or 5th green you request, over 45 minutes, they'll have forgotten, and you can slide 1 or 2 away.

    Quote Originally Posted by moo321 View Post
    You're thinking about it wrong. Don't give up a fixed % of your edge. Give up whatever you have to give up to still get a good edge. If you can play optimally, do that. If ten splitting is going to create problems, maybe don't split tens. If betting $100 draws attention, go $5-95.
    Precisely.

  12. #12
    Senior Member bigplayer's Avatar
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    If your top bet is < two hands of $190 any cover is a waste of time except maybe leaving when you're ahead by a certain amount or limiting sessions to 75 minutes. From $200 to $500 some moderate cover might be useful but I think short sessions and a good act will go much further towards giving you longevity than whether you always stand on 16 vs 10 but there are always exceptions. If you're spreading $50 to 2x$2500 on shoes it's all down to act and whether the casino will take the action, otherwise the best cover is the hit and run blast a shoe and leave approach with a little bit of alternative non-counting type strategies thrown in when possible to allow for big bets off the top.

    The biggest flaw of most cover strategies isn't the loss of EV, there are some plays that cost very little (like always standing on 16 vs 10). The biggest cost to many cover plays is higher variance which increases the long run (N0) making it more likely for someone to either bust out or have a losing year which can make you quit. Better to just play your AA game all of the time and work on a better act and let the backoffs come when they're gonna come...those casino's that back you off would likely have backed you off anyway and those that won't back you off likely wouldn't have anyway. The only way to test a casino and find out it's real tolerance is to push it a little. When you find one that has a good game and takes the action well you've hit the gold mine (assuming you keep it pretty much to yourself or your immediate circle). When the word gets out that game will get crushed.

  13. #13
    Senior Member Aslan's Avatar
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    My sense of camo is whatever it takes.

    Hit and run is clean and efficient. But if, for whatever reason, you decide to play on, then camo is in order. My approach is to assume that I am being watched from beginning to end. I adopted this philosophy because I was backed off one day on the first max bet of my second plus count in the course of a session.

    Naturally, you will seldom be watched from beginning to end, and in many instances, you will not be watched at all. Nevertheless, you cannot know when surveillance begins and when it ends, and that is why I assume the worst case scenario.

    I try to craft each play so that it would fool me if I were watching, at least for a while. No one can be assured of fooling surveillance. Counting and counting detection is not RS. If you have a healthy max bet, one that could threaten the house, you will eventually be surveilled and what you want them to see is someone who sometimes luckily bets a lot of cash at the right time, but that judging from your overall pattern of play, you did not really know what you were doing. You have to figure out what that pattern of play is based on the cards as they occur, and you must attempt to keep your advantage intact on average over the course of the session. Nuff said.

    Aslan 11/1/90 - 6/15/10 Stormy 1/22/95 - 8/23/10... “Life’s most urgent question is: what are you doing for others?” — Martin Luther King, Jr.

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