See the top rated post in this thread. Click here

Page 1 of 6 123 ... LastLast
Results 1 to 13 of 72

Thread: Video Poker/Machine Plays

  1. #1


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No

    Video Poker/Machine Plays

    Hi all,

    I'm interested in expanding my AP methods to video poker and other machine plays. I have a general idea as to the payout tables I need to look for to make it a winning proposition, but I am curious as to what the upper limit for EV is for machine plays. My bankroll is well-funded, so I should be able to play most any limits, but my gut feeling is that the ceiling for machine plays is lower than that of table games. Any advice or suggested reading material would be very welcome.

  2. #2


    3 out of 3 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by houyi View Post
    Hi all,

    I'm interested in expanding my AP methods to video poker and other machine plays. I have a general idea as to the payout tables I need to look for to make it a winning proposition, but I am curious as to what the upper limit for EV is for machine plays. My bankroll is well-funded, so I should be able to play most any limits, but my gut feeling is that the ceiling for machine plays is lower than that of table games. Any advice or suggested reading material would be very welcome.
    I'll say this much. For VP, it isn't so much about finding the machine to play, as it is knowing when to play it. Certain places offer certain points/cash offers/multipliers for certain days of play. In some cases, its entirely possibly to play certain VP games at a theoretical 3.5% advantage for 8-24 hours, depending on the promotional period. VP and other machine play, of course, is wildly more erratic and volatile than APBJ is, which is why you need to find a good game to play and hammer it on those "advantage" days of play. Through a long enough sample period of play, it won't be unheard of to to earn a realistic 2% advantage on the machine over the long haul.

    For "other" machine plays, you're looking at SERIOUSLY wild variance in most cases, so much so that to a degree unless you're on the right machine at the most mathematically favorable time, you're going to be closer to "gambling" than anything else. Of course, the longer "window" of play you achieve, the more that settles and you achieve the "real" payback percentage and/or advantage. Again, like VP on promotional days, if you key on a certain or specific type of machine to play on those days, its theoretically possible to play some "machine" games at a break even or even slight advantage, and then more so if its a "special" kind of machine I won't discuss on the open forum or anywhere online, really.

  3. #3


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Exoter175 View Post
    I'll say this much. For VP, it isn't so much about finding the machine to play, as it is knowing when to play it. Certain places offer certain points/cash offers/multipliers for certain days of play. In some cases, its entirely possibly to play certain VP games at a theoretical 3.5% advantage for 8-24 hours, depending on the promotional period. VP and other machine play, of course, is wildly more erratic and volatile than APBJ is, which is why you need to find a good game to play and hammer it on those "advantage" days of play. Through a long enough sample period of play, it won't be unheard of to to earn a realistic 2% advantage on the machine over the long haul.

    For "other" machine plays, you're looking at SERIOUSLY wild variance in most cases, so much so that to a degree unless you're on the right machine at the most mathematically favorable time, you're going to be closer to "gambling" than anything else. Of course, the longer "window" of play you achieve, the more that settles and you achieve the "real" payback percentage and/or advantage. Again, like VP on promotional days, if you key on a certain or specific type of machine to play on those days, its theoretically possible to play some "machine" games at a break even or even slight advantage, and then more so if its a "special" kind of machine I won't discuss on the open forum or anywhere online, really.
    Thank you very much for your response. I certainly don't expect you to divulge your games. I was more trying to determine if the endeavor would be worth my time given my bankroll. I understand you can have an impressive edge in terms of percentages, but at which point does EV approximately top out? Assuming a bankroll of around 500 k, what could you expect for an hourly rate playing the most appropriate limits?

  4. #4


    2 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by houyi View Post
    Thank you very much for your response. I certainly don't expect you to divulge your games. I was more trying to determine if the endeavor would be worth my time given my bankroll. I understand you can have an impressive edge in terms of percentages, but at which point does EV approximately top out? Assuming a bankroll of around 500 k, what could you expect for an hourly rate playing the most appropriate limits?
    Well, I'll put it this way, if you sit at a BP game giving back 99.17, and the running promotion offers you, say, 5x points on top of a .006 payback for VP, you're already going to play the game at a theoretical payback of 99.77, and then during the promotion, you'll gain an additional .030 on top of the .006 and base game. Giving you a theoretical return of 100.07% and that's for a very, very common VP game you can find anywhere. If you can find a full pay or 9/6 JoB game with a promotional offer like that, you could play nearer to the 101% mark, and again some days and some casinos you can get an ever better "promotional payback" day far beyond the 5x amount.

    I just had a local place do a "player appreciation day" here offering 20x slot promo, where I played a common game for 16 hours at a base 106.xx% payback during the duration. Ended up about $1165 ahead after the promotion was done and I burned through the promotional play.

    If, however, you have a nearly infinite bankroll for something like VP, your best bet is to find a casino with a high paying game that offers promotional slot days, and just play the game at its highest denomination to achieve the fullest return possible. I got word of a midwest casino that has a progressive VP game that pays at .996 that gives both a 5x and an 8x day in the same week where the progressive VP hand has exceeded the last 3 or 4 payout totals, so I'm planning on road tripping in a couple weeks if it is still there, and taking down the pot, which is near 15.7k right now.

    Point is, if you have the time to scout the best game at the best rewards place possible, and a large enough bankroll to negate the volatility of the variance swings, I see no reason why you couldn't earn a considerable amount of money pretty regularly, while also earning top card status and the benefits with it.

  5. #5


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by houyi View Post
    Thank you very much for your response. I certainly don't expect you to divulge your games. I was more trying to determine if the endeavor would be worth my time given my bankroll. I understand you can have an impressive edge in terms of percentages, but at which point does EV approximately top out? Assuming a bankroll of around 500 k, what could you expect for an hourly rate playing the most appropriate limits?
    Well that depends on what's worth it to you to play. Is $50/hour worth it? What about $500/hour?

    Huge edges can be had, but you're not going to make any serious money playing on a 3x points day where you have a 0.6% edge.

    Look for promotions that can truly be beaten. Think outside the box. The exact same promotion might be run at different casinos, but it might only give you a huge edge at one of them.
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

  6. #6


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by RollingStoned View Post
    Well that depends on what's worth it to you to play. Is $50/hour worth it? What about $500/hour?

    Huge edges can be had, but you're not going to make any serious money playing on a 3x points day where you have a 0.6% edge.

    Look for promotions that can truly be beaten. Think outside the box. The exact same promotion might be run at different casinos, but it might only give you a huge edge at one of them.
    To couple with this post, not every VP game is the same. Pay tables/payouts are CRUCIAL to be able to make any real money on them, so scouting is pretty huge, luckily there is a website or two that has a pretty good collection of VP games/payouts and the host casino's "rewards" payback numbers.

  7. #7


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Exoter175 View Post
    To couple with this post, not every VP game is the same. Pay tables/payouts are CRUCIAL to be able to make any real money on them, so scouting is pretty huge, luckily there is a website or two that has a pretty good collection of VP games/payouts and the host casino's "rewards" payback numbers.
    Nevermind then.
    Last edited by houyi; 01-10-2015 at 04:00 PM.

  8. #8


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by houyi View Post
    I'm not sure if you're willing to divulge these websites, but if you are, please email me at
    I'll give you a well known freebie to get you started, no reason to email about it really since the others are "private". VP2free, google search that string, you'll find one of the best "beginner" sites out there for what I'm referring to.

  9. #9


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    The edge isn't usually from machines with 100%+ payout. That's basically a $7-8 an hour job.
    The Cash Cow.

  10. #10


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by moo321 View Post
    The edge isn't usually from machines with 100%+ payout. That's basically a $7-8 an hour job.
    That was my thinking. I imagine any possible significant edge comes from promotions and/or substantial progressives, but again, I'm new to all this.

  11. #11


    1 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    In more sophisticated gambling venues, playing strictly on promo days will sometimes get your card deactivated and you won't be able to take advantage of further promotions and mail offers(thishappens to many high volume players at local oriented Vegas casinos) Certainly you want to put the bulk of your play in on these days but be conscious of it. Some places promotions add a lot, some places the value is mostly in the mail, some places you don't get jack. Scouting and networking help. You also need to figure out whether it's primarily your average daily theoretical loss total coin in/ theoretical over a certain period. What happens on your third months at a place with monthly decent mail will tell you what's driving your offers. Then there's break points for the higher level mailers(Don't confuse that with your card tier level, different although related.)

  12. #12


    2 out of 2 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Also, make sure your states tax laws aren't going to make it overly prohibitive if you hit w2g's. It's not necessarily always difficult, there's just a lot more angles to evaluating a game/play than you have with counting. Also if the value comes from future offers, make sure either you will be there to pick them up or have someone that will do so very cheaply. I've cut back significantly on local machine play as I've added more travel into my play.

  13. #13


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Big respect on a 16 hour vp play exoter, anything over 5 hours on a machine and there's a growing thought in my mind to find the closest gun store and put myself out of my misery. I could probably put in a 10 hour day with a 6% edge but be pretty depressed at the end of it no matter how much I made.

Page 1 of 6 123 ... LastLast

Similar Threads

  1. hi: BJ on poker machine
    By hi in forum Blackjack Main
    Replies: 17
    Last Post: 04-08-2004, 09:32 AM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.