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Thread: Trying to Sim an instant 18 side bet in CVdata and failing..

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    Trying to Sim an instant 18 side bet in CVdata and failing..

    Instant18: A side bet that plays as a second, unalterable player hand of 18. ~2.03% house edge. 6Decks, Tags (A=4, 2=-1,-1,0,0,0,2,-1,1, Tens=0) lifted from
    http://apheat.net/2014/11/27/card-co...jack-side-bet/

    Is this possible to sim/why not?

    I tried three merged side bet tabs, dealer hand 17 (variable pay 1), dealer >21 (bust, variable pay 1), and dealer 18 (ties push, variable 0.5). I thought this would work but side bets show losses at all counts, clearly missing something. Obvious error, suggestions, resources, or lost cause?

  2. #2
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Dealer 18 should be set to variable pay of zero.

    The thing about this type of bet is that the dealer must play his hand even if you bust. Makes a huge difference since he is playing out his hand to your 18. To force the dealer to play his hand, define a second player and assign that player a strategy of Never Bust. It can be found in the Basic Strategies folder.

    Also, for all Side Bet tabs, set Split Hands to 1, DD Hands Count, and make sure First Two Cards is off.

    I also suggest downloading the latest update at http://www.qfit.com/downloads.htm#free. Extremely unlikley that it will change anything -- just to be safe.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    AHhh! Of course. CVData is literally the best money I've ever spent! Thank you.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    <snip>The thing about this type of bet is that the dealer must play his hand even if you bust. Makes a huge difference since he is playing out his hand to your 18. To force the dealer to play his hand, define a second player and assign that player a strategy of Never Bust. It can be found in the Basic Strategies folder.<snip>
    Norm & dankpoet,

    Note that the player's own hand can use "Never Bust", since dankpoet is interested only in the sidebet result.

    However, if his hand receives a BJ, the dealer's hand will be complete only if it is a pat hand: otherwise, it will not be completed (and thus will result in a "loss" for the sidebet). As a workaround, I suggest using a bet strategy that plays three simultaneous hands with the "Never Bust" playing strategy: getting three simultaneous BJ's is pretty rare.

    In the future, Norm, perhaps you'd consider adding a "Dealer Must Complete Hand" checkbox for just such an occasion.

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dog Hand View Post
    In the future, Norm, perhaps you'd consider adding a "Dealer Must Complete Hand" checkbox for just such an occasion.
    Yep. That's on my list.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Better Solution

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    <snip>The thing about this type of bet is that the dealer must play his hand even if you bust. Makes a huge difference since he is playing out his hand to your 18. To force the dealer to play his hand, define a second player and assign that player a strategy of Never Bust. It can be found in the Basic Strategies folder.<snip>
    Norm & dankpoet,

    Norm's suggestion has a flaw: if the "Never Bust" additional player gets a BJ and your own hand either gets a BJ or busts, then the dealer may not complete his hand: it will be complete only if it is a pat hand; if not, it will remain uncompleted and, thus, will count as a "loss" on the sidebet. NB BJ + your bust will occur more than 1% of the time (roughtly 4% for NB BJ times roughly 30% for your own bust), and a large fraction of those times the dealer's hand will not be pat. This will have a serious impact on your simulated results.

    Here are two workarounds:

    1. Since you don't care about the results of your own hand, you can use the NB strategy for your own hand. In this case, though, you'll want to use a betting strategy that plays three simultaneous hands (since getting three simultaneous BJ's is rare enough that its effect on the SB can be ignored in your results).

    2. Again, since you don't care about the results of your own hand, you can "switch" hands with the dealer! To make this work, put the sidebet payoffs on your OWN hand, rather than the dealer's. Then, enter a playing strategy for your hand that matches what the dealer should do: no splits, no DD's, no surrenders, hit all stiff hands, and either hit or stand (as appropriate) on soft 17. Finally, set the dealer's holecard action to "No Hole Card". This way, your hand (which actually represents the DEALER'S hand) will always be completed regardless of what happens to the dealer's hand (which now represents YOUR hand).

    I'm hoping the long-term solution will be for Norm to add a "Dealer Must Complete Hand" checkbox: hint, hint

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand

    P.S. I thought my original post got "eaten"... sorry for the partial duplication!
    Last edited by Dog Hand; 12-24-2014 at 07:21 AM. Reason: Added postscript

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