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Thread: [Voodoo? One2Six related, no flame please] Possibility of behaviour manipulation

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    [Voodoo? One2Six related, no flame please] Possibility of behaviour manipulation

    Since I'm a first time poster, a little description of myself.
    Firm believer of science, a BsC graduate. Not that into making profit without producing. Used to play CSM blackjack while counting, for the thrill of playing with money, and occupy my mind with simple numbers, similar to grinding in Candy Crush. I'm not entirely sure the purpose of this, I keep telling myself it is randomness. But it just seems so fishy, and "randomness" is the perfect barrier of any meaningful investigation.

    Observation
    Note that it is based on more than 500 [Edit: a few years] hours of observation, understood that my perception could be biased because human focus on emotional times such as when they are losing. Also understood that it has been brought up a lot of times, and this always generate flames, which I'm skeptical since if there is any monetary gain involved, there is always resources and incentive to skew public discussions.

    I observe that there is a specific timeslot, usually after mid-night, when there is the highest concentration of problematic gamblers, the cards coming out from the machines would just become "weird". Dealers making "impossible" hands, a 15 always getting a 6, always 20s, etc. Generally situations that call for pouring more money on the table, such as split or double, or right after a short-span high count, then the dealer would always get a 20 or 21.

    I see people doing crazy stuff like surrounding 12 against 10 a lot, however don't underestimate human learning ability from subtle patterns, a lot of the time they are making the "right" decision. And there seem to be artificial winning and losing "strakes" and "permutations" or "clumps". (Hold your fire, it is not the point of the discussion) Seems it depends on the shuffling mode of the machine, which obviously could never be reliable, and I perceive the experience to be a lot like a slot experience.

    Assumptions
    Most of the income of casinos come from a small portion of problematic gamblers.
    The casinos have the incentive to train these people into some specific behaviour patterns that is beneficial to the casino.
    Let's pretend that the casinos are of pure evil, they would use relationship management, bribing to cover the fact or whatever means to maximise their income or protect their baseline.
    Let's focus on mathematical and practical feasibility.

    Question
    To my understanding One2Six Plus has optical card recognition and different operation modes, however without knowing the exact number of players is it mathematical possible to stably achieve the presumably observed "cold deck" or to the extend of creating this slot like experience to train new behaviours? Otherwise, what is the complexity or feasibility to determine the answer of the previous question?
    Is it possible to create shuffles that target and are harmful to bs plays?
    Last edited by utbabya; 11-27-2014 at 04:43 PM.

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    That machine does not have the ability to stack the deck in a player-unfavorable order.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mofungoo View Post
    That machine does not have the ability to stack the deck in a player-unfavorable order.
    Let's skip this part to avoid the debate of proof or intention, or pride, prejudice whatever.

    I am interested in the math more than the machine.
    Let's say I wish to achieve these, is it even technological or theoretically feasible?

    Edit:
    What I really mean is, in real terms. Doable while not too far-fetched and raising alarm.
    Say when they wished to slip in a card recognition, they needed justification too.
    I know it's hard to answer.
    Last edited by utbabya; 11-27-2014 at 06:19 PM.

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by utbabya View Post
    Is it possible to create shuffles that target and are harmful to bs plays?
    Yes. But, CSMs do not do this. They are likely to improve basic strategy results as they remove the cut-card effect.

    What is amazing to me is that casinos pay quite large amounts of money to buy machines that reduce the house advantage, physically break down, invoke paranoia in players, are disliked by staff, and further the distance between player and dealer that is at the very heart of gambling. Today’s casinos simply do not understand the concept of what a casino is. Indeed, they have given up. They are now opening nightclubs, beach bars, shopping malls, and other lures as they do not seem to understand the purpose of their own businesses. Huge numbers of people for centuries have been attracted to casinos. Gambling is a part of human nature. But, they have taken the romance out of it. They have taken the fairness out of it. They have taken the mano a mano experience out of it.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Hmm, I have just been to Macau, people are happy spending USD$70 minimum per hand on these tables, maybe it's a cultural thing.
    If they can create a similar effect of micro-payment app games, they have a lot of reasons to do this. Which is what makes me wonder in the first place.

    Assume they are managed by MBAs, they don't necessarily care about the atmosphere, meaning or romance. They don't care about how you feel if they can still pull of extracting money while thwarting counters.


    On the question, is it even possible for variable number of players? Mind giving me cursors to further looking into the math?

    Cheers.

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    Quote Originally Posted by mofungoo View Post
    That machine does not have the ability to stack the deck in a player-unfavorable order.
    However, I once observed this Pit guy, take 3 cards off of a 6 deck stack from the shuffling machine and put the rest in. There is a small window on some of the machines. Well, he looked at the screen and seemed satisfied. I asked him what he was doing and he said he was conducting a test on the machine, that it was working fine, that the missing cards were the ones that the machine indicated!!!!

    i did not realize that the machine could not only detect missing cards but exactly which cards were missing.

    if this is true then it is not far fetched that an order could be proscribed. I have started to vary from one hand to two at the start of a deck so that if there was a set order it would or work.

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    USD$70 is cheap in Macau. Macau is an aberration. A small island with ever-changing rules that differ from an enormous continent with its own ever-changing rules, with some people with fortunes that are vast – and yet, in their entirety, subject to the unpredictable whims of leaders whose names aren’t even well known outside the country. For many there, all of life is a huge casino. Macau reminds me of an aspect of quantum physics. It might blink out of existence at any moment.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Senior Member Nikky_Flash's Avatar
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    " the cards coming out ... would just become "weird". Dealers making "impossible" hands "
    ---------
    this happens every night ,
    imagine, u hit every single stiff hand 12 through 16 , all night long , no exceptions. you hit it and hit it and hit it.... you would pull many many 20 and 21s .... it would seem weird , but not impossible .

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    Senior Member bigplayer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by utbabya View Post
    Hmm, I have just been to Macau, people are happy spending USD$70 minimum per hand on these tables, maybe it's a cultural thing.
    If they can create a similar effect of micro-payment app games, they have a lot of reasons to do this. Which is what makes me wonder in the first place.
    Macau = Endless Demand + Limited Supply = Sellers Market = CSM's. Same phenomenon exists in the USA in markets with few casinos or a single casino owner. Venetian in LV has decided that they're gonna just rake conventioneers at their facility and thus have no need to offer anything other than CSM's on their main floor. In the end it always comes down to competition.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Yes. But, CSMs do not do this. They are likely to improve basic strategy results as they remove the cut-card effect.

    What is amazing to me is that casinos pay quite large amounts of money to buy machines that reduce the house advantage, physically break down, invoke paranoia in players, are disliked by staff, and further the distance between player and dealer that is at the very heart of gambling. Today’s casinos simply do not understand the concept of what a casino is. Indeed, they have given up. They are now opening nightclubs, beach bars, shopping malls, and other lures as they do not seem to understand the purpose of their own businesses. Huge numbers of people for centuries have been attracted to casinos. Gambling is a part of human nature. But, they have taken the romance out of it. They have taken the fairness out of it. They have taken the mano a mano experience out of it.
    And Grosjean believes they decrease hands/hr. So, they literally fail on every point.
    The Cash Cow.

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    It is surprising to me that one could play against a CSM or any other shuffle machine for years and not get a little curious about them.
    All automatic shuffle machines have a checkpoint where the machine reads, card for card, what is in the machine. You may notice two bays on the ASM, one where the dealer puts the card in, and one where the shuffled cards come out. When the dealer drops the used cards into the first bay, a couple of wheels spin the cards, one at a time into the next chamber where a camera records the entire deck(s) before it kicks the cards into the shuffle wheel. The camera and the computer it is attached to can even tell what brand and style of card it is reading.
    If the machine didn't have this function, we would never know if cards were changed, added, or removed.
    However, none of this information is derived after the cards go into the shuffle wheel. It all happens before the cards are actually shuffled. The Pit Guy seen checking was being very thorough in his game protection. Most suits don't care enough to run a check like that.
    That being said, if an extra 5 of diamonds shows up on the screen, this they would check, or a missing 9 of clubs, or my favorite item, an invalid deck.
    Understand, not all of our issues come from APs. There are also many people that just plain try to cheat, so we have to have many safeguards. Otherwise someone would get all the money before you got there.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nikky_Flash View Post
    " the cards coming out ... would just become "weird". Dealers making "impossible" hands "
    ---------
    this happens every night ,
    imagine, u hit every single stiff hand 12 through 16 , all night long , no exceptions. you hit it and hit it and hit it.... you would pull many many 20 and 21s .... it would seem weird , but not impossible .
    This. It also applies to any game, over long periods of time you're going to experience weird fits of behavior, especially long hot streaks and cold streaks. Sometimes a dealer busts 12 out of 15 hands, and sometimes they seem to never bust. I like to think about it this way: everybody playing gets dealt a 10, including the dealer, you're pretty happy at first, then some people invariably get 5s and 6s. The dealer is just as likely to get a 5, 6, 4 or whatever in their hole, just like we don't get 20 every time we get a 10. That's why sometimes they show a 5 but are hiding a 6 and people freak out like it's an "impossible hand" when they draw 21. Same scenario for them showing a 10 with a 5 in the hole then bust but you already hit a 16. As for hitting 15-16 and not busting, we do it all the time, that's part of basic strategy. The key is we don't always have to, but the dealer does so you're going to see them drawing out 17+ more often than us. Even showing a 6 a dealer isn't favored to bust.

    Finally, it seems like it would be hard to "rig" a CSM at least where I played because people are constantly opening up new hands and joining on whims which disrupts the order, and I don't see the dealer input number of hands anywhere. What I can tell you i've seen done by unfavorable dealers is after a hand of tons of low cards and a great count they put it right back in the CSM, whereas they might let 10s build up in the discard rack. Honestly if you're just trying to lay low and not keep up an arduous count, CSMs aren't always the worst, the place I played had really good rules, 3-2, S17, DAS, Double any. Still, playing 500 hours on them I assume was just a money pit.

    Good luck if you keep on your trek

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by moo321 View Post
    And Grosjean believes they decrease hands/hr. So, they literally fail on every point.
    Could you explain the reasoning behind this? I've always thought the opposite. Wouldn't they increase hands/hr since the dealer doesn't have to hand shuffle or even use an ASM (w/ the ritual of plugging the discards, cutting the new shoe, etc.)?

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