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Thread: Little Advice

  1. #1


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    Little Advice

    Okay, let me try to explain a situation. I started playing a local 2 deck game about 6 months ago, ramping from 10 to 250 pretty rapidly using HiLo. I first banged my head up against some negative variance and got down over 3000, but kept renewing my bankroll and trying again. Well, now I've gotten it all back and am up several thousand. My bet ramp now though is 20-250 on 2 spots.

    To the point, I've been playing over 200 hours with this play and some of the dealers make comments that tell me that they know I'm counting.. but they let it continue. Casinos here get paid from an ante, not from the actual money taken from players. The money they win goes to a player pool and they track the antes and pay them out of the player pool. Do you think that they possibly just don't care because they get to take from the player pool just because of my action, or do you think that I will eventually be backed off? The floor people are all very friendly to me and don't flinch when the dealer yells black action or table max. They even come watch in a way where they seem to rout for me a little bit. Rarely do they call surveillance. It seems to me they've had plenty of opportunity to get rid of me, what makes me worry now is that the winning is coming around and the house is down. Two questions for those who have possibly been in similar situations: Should I expect an eventual back off? If you think I should, should I milk all I can from the game because I know the people well enough that they won't forget? Many give advice to spread your play, but I don't live in an area saturated with blackjack options. I have switched to ReKo, but that's not very relevant to the questions. Should I raise my minimum to say $50, or would it be a waste of EV?

  2. #2


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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckD View Post
    Okay, let me try to explain a situation. I started playing a local 2 deck game about 6 months ago, ramping from 10 to 250 pretty rapidly using HiLo. I first banged my head up against some negative variance and got down over 3000, but kept renewing my bankroll and trying again. Well, now I've gotten it all back and am up several thousand. My bet ramp now though is 20-250 on 2 spots.

    To the point, I've been playing over 200 hours with this play and some of the dealers make comments that tell me that they know I'm counting.. but they let it continue. Casinos here get paid from an ante, not from the actual money taken from players. The money they win goes to a player pool and they track the antes and pay them out of the player pool. Do you think that they possibly just don't care because they get to take from the player pool just because of my action, or do you think that I will eventually be backed off? The floor people are all very friendly to me and don't flinch when the dealer yells black action or table max. They even come watch in a way where they seem to rout for me a little bit. Rarely do they call surveillance. It seems to me they've had plenty of opportunity to get rid of me, what makes me worry now is that the winning is coming around and the house is down. Two questions for those who have possibly been in similar situations: Should I expect an eventual back off? If you think I should, should I milk all I can from the game because I know the people well enough that they won't forget? Many give advice to spread your play, but I don't live in an area saturated with blackjack options. I have switched to ReKo, but that's not very relevant to the questions. Should I raise my minimum to say $50, or would it be a waste of EV?
    I assume you always play two hands and spread from $10x2 to $125x2.

    The answer depends on how much the ante is. This is my estimate. Your average bet is $40 per hand and advantage is 1.5%. You win 60 cents per hand if no ante. Assume the ante is 25 cents per spot per hand, you win 35 cents per hand. Assume the ante is 50 cents per hand, you win 10 cents per hand. Assume the ante is one dollar per hand, you are in the positive variance, the casino will welcome you dearly.

  3. #3


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    Just to make sure I understand this situation correctly, there's a particular charge you pay each hand you play that you have to place in addition to your wager? I think I misread the post the first time so I thought it was some weird system I've never heard of. If it is the case that it's a per hand charge, it would be good to know how much it is.

    I'm not too experienced with casino heat myself, but I play at a pretty (what's the opposite of sweaty?) low-heat casino myself. If you're already well known to them, your betting patterns probably are as well. I'm not sure how much cover you could buy by retroactively changing your play style. Cover seems to do a lot more as a preventative measure than a fix-it solution.

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    I do not pay the ante from my stack, it is paid out of the player pool. Basically the house pays the ante as a promotion. The house does not "win" the money that they bring in. That money all goes to the player pool, but they track the antes that they would have charged and they can legally deduct that from the player pool to give them their profit. I play 2 spots at 20-250 each, so 40-500 cumulative. The game is worth just shy of $100/hr. H17, DOA, DAS, NRSA, ~66%PEN. They've witnessed me lose $4000, but I recently had a 4 day trip where I played 5 different sessions. Each 1 was about 3-5 hours and I won $2700, then lost $1000, then lost 900, then won $400, then won $3600 for a +4800 trip. I don't think they will freak out and ban me for winning, but I am concerned about how long this will be able to go on.

  5. #5
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    Just continue to play aggressive. Any heat or damage to you has already been done. Yes you will most likely get backed off eventually but don't worry about it. In your current situation this is not a time to retract and play conservative. This is a time to keep blasting at your appropiate bankrolls limitation.

    Also, if you are not already you need to hide your wins from them. So rathole like crazy. Keep a chip stash. Always buy in with cash never chips. Even if you are up but there are no chips in front of you buy in with cash from time to time instead of pulling chips out of your pocket. This will keep your overrall win rate down and give you a lot more time to play.

  6. #6
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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckD View Post
    I do not pay the ante from my stack, it is paid out of the player pool. Basically the house pays the ante as a promotion. The house does not "win" the money that they bring in. That money all goes to the player pool, but they track the antes that they would have charged and they can legally deduct that from the player pool to give them their profit. I play 2 spots at 20-250 each, so 40-500 cumulative. The game is worth just shy of $100/hr. H17, DOA, DAS, NRSA, ~66%PEN. They've witnessed me lose $4000, but I recently had a 4 day trip where I played 5 different sessions. Each 1 was about 3-5 hours and I won $2700, then lost $1000, then lost 900, then won $400, then won $3600 for a +4800 trip. I don't think they will freak out and ban me for winning, but I am concerned about how long this will be able to go on.
    they need to know exactly how much the ante is ... no matter what. that's key.

  7. #7


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    Thanks Jet, I have considered rat-holing chips, but I've read a lot of threads that suggest that they will figure it out based on what's supposed to be gone from their tray and that it makes you look worse when they figure it out. Not saying you're wrong, but do you have a different opinion on this?

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    Nikki, I believe the ante is $0.50 up to $50 and $1 once you go above. That's per hand, obviously.

  9. #9
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    Only if they keep track of blacks then don't rat hole blacks. Rathole greens.

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    Well, I'm not sure what all they keep track of. When you cash out the cashier has to call surveillance for the purple chips and that's all.. So maybe that's all they track. Purple=$500

  11. #11
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    Then there you go you can rathole everything except purples. Also try to stay away from getting purples, but of course sometimes there is nothing you can do about it.

  12. #12


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    Yeah, they don't ever pay me in purple, always happens at color up. If I had a lot of chips rat-holed it would mean less purples out.

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by ChuckD View Post
    Nikki, I believe the ante is $0.50 up to $50 and $1 once you go above. That's per hand, obviously.
    Ante is $0.50 or $1. You are playing a losing game. Casino won't give you any heat. The more you play, the merrier they are.

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