First time in the red

[tjr5259]

I have been playing blackjack for 2 months now at an "advantage". I played for a lot longer but just using basic strategy, but since I started counting cards and playing smart I started tracking wins and losses. After yesterday's session, this is the first time I have been under the amount I started with. It is pretty worrisome and has me even second guessing what I am trying to accomplish. I'm just a rookie so anyone have a word of advice? Thanks.

[txlouder]

Playing with an advantage doesn't mean you're not gambling.

You can play full time for months and months and still be in the red. You asked for some advice. My advice is that you understand and accept this.

Look up some of KJ's posts on this topic.


-TX

[moo321]

Happens all the time. Depending on the game, you can be in the red for hundreds of hours.

[SiMi]

Hi, tjr5259!

You might benefit from looking at N0 (N-zero) to understand that it can take 10's of thousands of rounds (depending on the quality of the game you're playing) before you have a good chance of being ahead. I posted a lengthy reply to someone about this issue here:

http://www.blackjacktheforum.com/sho...232#post143232

in case it helps you!

Best
SiMi

[ChuckD]

Good info SiMi. Not bragging but I recently joined needing inspiration. I was down about $5000 and questioning if counting was viable. Since then I've won almost 9000. Streaks are hell both ways, but just make sure you know what the game your playing is supposed to pay and just pretend you're winning that. I used a renewable income to play above where I should, but if yours is nonrenewable you need to consider your risk of ruin. I would suggest Kelly betting, but hey, I'm a newbie here.

[VeryGood]

Playing with an advantage doesn't mean you're not gambling.



-TX

I'm confused. How can one be gambling when playing with an advantage? Casinos gamble too?

[Nikky_Flash]

I kinda see how people claim , we are "gambling in the short term " ; but I don't see it as "short term gambling" , as long as I have a small advantage ; I see it as "Long term investment " , and even the most sound investments don't always pay right away ; some take years ... just how I look at "Advantage Play" ...

[SiMi]

Hi, VeryGood!

I think the comment about 'gambling' was meant to convey that you almost never know what cards are coming out on the next hand. Unless you find a game that is dealt to the last card, there's always an element of chance (or 'gambling') in BJ even if you're counting.

Your edge is so small (1-2% overall) that you MUST UNDERSTAND that you do NOT know which cards are coming out next. When you make any large bet at a high TC, you're VERY likely to lose that bet. Your small edge will normally assert itself over a VERY large number of rounds of BJ. That's why the term "Long Run" is so important to understand and that's why N0 is so useful. Once you've done the N0 calculations, you'll begin to see how the EV gradually accumulates over many rounds and you'll start to play to accumulate EV rather than worry about any one session.

SiMi

[21forme]

Casinos gamble too?

Sure. Suppose there's a whale betting 100K/hand at baccarat, or it's a very small casino with only a few table games. Variance works in both directions, at least short term.

[tjr5259]

Thanks everyone. I understand there's going to be variance just needed some reassurance. When I start losing I start questioning what I'm doing such as my basic strategy, my betting ramp, my running count/true count, things like that. So thanks for the reassurance. Just gotta keep believing in everything I guess and keep playing like I'm winning.

[tjr5259]

Also, the n zero post was very helpful thanks.

[stopgambling]

Think in 4 x n0 , 9x n0 ,even 16x n0 .Do not think today, tomorrow ,this last shoe or 50 shoes. Casino that are sweat shops think like that ,you should not. We are human though so having some emotional response is normal ,but you must know how to deal with it.

[Jabberwocky]

If you weak in the emotional stability area, you should not play blackjack seriously.