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Thread: Where is the long run?

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    Where is the long run?

    Why is it that I have never heard anyone put a quantifiable definition to the term "long run"? How many people will ever play long enough to get to this far away land? Everybody claims they have a system that works. We know that if you play millions of hands using these systems you will lose in the end. But let's be realistic. Unless you are playing one hand every five seconds online somewhere for most of your life, how many of us are going to play a million hands of blackjack in our lives?

    This is what I have always wanted to see. Personally, I play 2 times a month for an average 5 hours a session. So safely I can assume approximately.....

    24 sessions a year X 5 hours per session X 60 hands per hour (I refuse to play solo so I think this is a fair average) = 7200 hands per year.

    Take any given betting strategy you please. Show exactly where the system leaves you after every 7200 hands.

    Sure the system will fail after a million hands but I won't live long enough to see a million hands so why should I care what the numbers say at a point in time I will never see?

    I think this is why there's always something. Realistically any system CAN be a success because realistically a vast majority of us will never even come close to the long run.

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    Troll!

  3. #3
    Member Picasso's Avatar
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    A system will not necessarily fail after a million hands, it can fail anytime. It can fail twice in a row, although unlikely, if it can happen, it will eventually happen. Blackjack has a very high degree of variance, so to get a general idea, millions of hands are necessary, but be forewarned, your «system» can fail anytime. Good luck.

  4. #4


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    The op's system is hoping to get lucky in the short term ,that is gambling . Card counting is expecting to succeed in the long run what ever it maybe due to your game selection. 16 "N zero"( approx. 320k hands) is a good indicator for the long run for myself. At an average winrate of $200/thousand hands ,320 x $200 = average win $ 72000. Your chance of getting lucky w your system is more likely to fail as time goes by. Yes in those few thousand rounds of your wagering you may not hit the bad run of cards. As gambling goes you rely on luck /variance . card counting want to out race variance and just want the expected value. Some people buy the lottery and get rich but those that go to school and learned the tool for making money is much much more likely to make a lot of money even it takes a lot more work n time.

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    Every bet you place at a disadvantage comes with -EV (Expected Value....how much you expect to win/lose [on average]).

    EV is additive.

    Let's say you play $100/hand in BJ with a 0.5% house edge. Every bet you make, you expect to lose $0.50.

    After 100 hands, you expect to lose $50.

    If you play $50/hand half the time and $100/hand the other half the time (500 hands total) with a 0.5% HE....you expect to lose:

    250 * 50 * 0.5 + 250 * 100 * 0.5 = 187.50

    Can you add up a bunch of negative numbers to get a positive number?


    Unless you know when you have an advantage (card counting or other source of figuring out when you have an advantage)....every bet you're making is at a disadvantage.


    You don't need to "get to the long term" to ensure a win/loss.

    Card counters aren't in the long term and they're making money. Gamblers aren't in the long term and they're losing money.



    If you're using a system, be aware, just because it works most of the time, doesn't mean you'll end up a winner. You don't know if that big loss streak is going to occur on hand #1,000,000 or if it's going to happen on hand #20. [And no, it's not a 1 in a million chance your system will fail.....the odds of failure are much more likely.]
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    I'm not sure why Sir Normcelot bounced this to the DA so quickly.
    I didn't. It was posted here.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Senior Member bigplayer's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigdaddy910 View Post
    Why is it that I have never heard anyone put a quantifiable definition to the term "long run"?
    There is one, it's called N0 (N-Zero). The long-run can be measured for any game or any statistical certainty you choose.

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    bigDadddy910

    I've been writing a lengthy paper on N0, which attempts to answer your question by VERY carefully explaining N0. Here's the definition of N0 from my paper:

    "N0- The number of rounds of Blackjack that must be played under given favorable conditions with a specific Bet Ramp such that the Accumulated Expected Value (AEV) equals one Accumulated Standard Deviation (ASD). In other words, the number of rounds of Advantage Play Blackjack that must be properly played in a certain game to have an 84%probability of NOT being behind."

    I don't know if 84% probability is what you're looking for. If not, you can calculate the number of rounds required for ANY probability that interests you.

    Good Variance!
    SiMi

  9. #9
    Senior Member Emeritus Sonny's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by bigdaddy910 View Post
    Why is it that I have never heard anyone put a quantifiable definition to the term "long run"?
    Because you haven't looked.

    http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=4891

    Quote Originally Posted by bigdaddy910 View Post
    How many people will ever play long enough to get to this far away land?
    If you can play with a big enough advantage you can reach the long run very quickly. I'm talking about months or even weeks. Similarly, if you play at a big disadvantage (misplaying certain carnival games comes to mind) you will crash and burn very quickly.

    Quote Originally Posted by bigdaddy910 View Post
    Take any given betting strategy you please. Show exactly where the system leaves you after every 7200 hands.
    And keep track of how many times the player went bankrupt before reaching 7200 hands. I'll say it again, end profit is not the answer:

    http://www.blackjackinfo.com/bb/showthread.php?t=7821

    Quote Originally Posted by bigdaddy910 View Post
    Sure the system will fail after a million hands...
    Or after 1,000 hands, or after 100. That losing streak might even start on your very first hand. It's like an axe hanging over your head and you never know when it will drop. Hopefully not before the rent is due.

    -Sonny-

  10. #10


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    Quote Originally Posted by SiMi View Post
    bigDadddy910

    I've been writing a lengthy paper on N0, which attempts to answer your question by VERY carefully explaining N0. Here's the definition of N0 from my paper:

    "N0- The number of rounds of Blackjack that must be played under given favorable conditions with a specific Bet Ramp such that the Accumulated Expected Value (AEV) equals one Accumulated Standard Deviation (ASD). In other words, the number of rounds of Advantage Play Blackjack that must be properly played in a certain game to have an 84%probability of NOT being behind."

    I don't know if 84% probability is what you're looking for. If not, you can calculate the number of rounds required for ANY probability that interests you.

    Good Variance!
    SiMi
    I would suggest you consider that the long run is better defined by the number of rounds required for your EV to overcome 2 negative standard deviations (4 X N0). About 95% probability of being at or near EV. My experience with team play says that N0 for 2 SD is a more conservative and appropriate view.
    Luck is nothing more than probability taken personally!

  11. #11


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    To me the long run is better thought of as a frame of mind that goes into your decision making process than a time period. The problem with looking at it as a time period is that you can manipulate statistics by the time period you look at or by filtering certain types of play or results to show you what you want. You can say "I tracked in line with EV until X event, and since have been under EV." The event may be of little significance, but when you're looking for reasons for performing better or worse than expected, you can find them whether they are reasonable conclusions or not. There's also a problem with limited sample size under specific conditions, even over a large number of hands, when you lump all sorts of varying conditions together and then draw conclusions based on the "average." An example from video poker would be to track how many hands or "scares" since your last royal flush. The math changes quite a bit depending on if you start tracking just before or just after the last royal.

  12. #12


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    Quote Originally Posted by mcallister3200 View Post
    To me the long run is better thought of as a frame of mind that goes into your decision making process than a time period. The problem with looking at it as a time period is that you can manipulate statistics by the time period you look at or by filtering certain types of play or results to show you what you want. You can say "I tracked in line with EV until X event, and since have been under EV." The event may be of little significance, but when you're looking for reasons for performing better or worse than expected, you can find them whether they are reasonable conclusions or not. There's also a problem with limited sample size under specific conditions, even over a large number of hands, when you lump all sorts of varying conditions together and then draw conclusions based on the "average." An example from video poker would be to track how many hands or "scares" since your last royal flush. The math changes quite a bit depending on if you start tracking just before or just after the last royal.
    If there are two players and one has an advantage of 2% and one has a disadvantage of 2% after just a 100 hands the player with the advantage is far more likely to be a winner and the player with the disadvantage is far more likely to be a loser.

    Sent from my SM-N900V using Tapatalk

  13. #13


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    Quote Originally Posted by Smartblackjack View Post
    If there are two players and one has an advantage of 2% and one has a disadvantage of 2% after just a 100 hands the player with the advantage is far more likely to be a winner and the player with the disadvantage is far more likely to be a loser.
    Depends what you mean by "far more likely". I think you meant "is ever so slightly more likely to be a winner". And of course it matters what kind of game is being played (variance) as well as the way they are playing. I haven't done the math, but I'd say someone using a martingale betting system at a 6:5 BJ table is more likely to be a winner after 100 hands than is a guy getting paid 2:1 on BJ's (flat betting) after 100 hands. Or perhaps two video poker players, one playing 8/5 DB where the royal is very high [enough to give a 2% player advantage]...and another guy playing something like 7/5 BP. I would bet many marbles the 7/5 BP player is more likely to be ahead than the 8/5 DB guy after 100 hands. With 100,000 hands...my marbles are going on the guy with the 2% edge.
    Last edited by RS; 09-26-2015 at 12:04 AM.
    "Everyone wants to be rich, but nobody wants to work for it." -Ryan Howard [The Office]

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