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Thread: why spread betting confuses me

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    why spread betting confuses me

    So I know that everyone is taught to raise their bets with the true count, so your larger bets have a higher chance of winning. Now here's what I dont understand. If the true count is at 2, you have a .5% advantage (when playing with good rules). In the blunt way how I see things, .5% is still an advantage, so why only do a small bet?

    How I play
    TC less then 1 = min bet 5$
    TC more then one= play 3 spots at $25- $50 per hand
    TC more then 5 = play one hand at $500-1000

    With this playstyle, I usually seem like a high roller ( at least in oregon) and have pretty consistent betting. Is something wrong with placing high bets with small advantages as well?
    Last edited by theredcore; 11-06-2014 at 02:55 AM.

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    Really good question!

    tldr version: take your advantage and divide it by the variance of the bet. This is the MOST you should bet on the hand (full Kelly) For blackjack, this is around 1.2 (depends on rules).

    So, for a .5% advantage, the most aggressive bet you should make is about .42% of your bankroll. This method (full Kelly) will maximize your bankroll growth, but will also have some sever bankroll fluctuations.

    If you want to get a deeper understanding, learn more about the Kelly criteria, which is a method of calculating the optimal bet given a certain advantage and bankroll.
    The Cash Cow.

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    In layman's terms, bet "ramping" is used to coincide with the degree of your advantage. If you're lucky enough to have an unlimited bankroll, go ahead and skip the ramps. You'll make more money by placing large bets in all advantageous counts and could face less heat too.

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    Senior Member Nikky_Flash's Avatar
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    in theory , any real positive advantage at all ,even something like +.0001 for long term , a person would want to throw as much money as possible at it. but in real life practice , the variance is tough on those slight advantages for short terms, so people ramped according to tc, your idea is right, if you are sure about the math and your bankroll can handle that style. if its been working for u and your comfortable with it, I'd keep it up !

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    "in theory, any real positive advantage at all, even something like +.0001 for long term, a person would want to throw as much money as possible at it."

    That simply isn't true, because, given the above suggestion, in theory AND in practice, virtually everyone on the planet, except one poor lucky slob, would be quickly bankrupt, while the one lucky guy would inherit the earth.

    It is mathematical fact that, despite an advantage, if you continually overbet your bankroll by a factor of > 2 x Kelly, you will, with certainty, go bankrupt.

    Don

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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post

    It is mathematical fact that, despite an advantage, if you continually overbet your bankroll by a factor of > 2 x Kelly, you will, with certainty, go bankrupt.

    Don


    I gotta say, that I have never understood this either, Don. Seems to me that if you were to bet say $5 in all negative EV situations and say $500 in +EV counts, no matter how small, you ought to mathematically do pretty good (casino tolerance being a separate issue).

    I obviously am not a math guy (a term I use endearingly). I am probably as far away from a math guy as there is among the 'regular' members of this site. The good thing is that while blackjack is a lot of math, you don't have to completely understand all of it, all the formulas and such. I am able to trust that if folks like you, much smarter than myself, tell me that overbetting bankroll by factor of greater than 2 is certain bankruptcy then it must be so.

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    Senior Member Nikky_Flash's Avatar
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    that's why I said " if your bankroll can handle it" ,

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    Senior Member Nikky_Flash's Avatar
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    law of large numbers - In probability theory, the law of large numbers (LLN) is a theorem that describes the result of performing the same experiment a large number of times. According to the law, the average of the results obtained from a large number of trials should be close to the expected value, and will tend to become closer as more trials are performed.

    The LLN is important because it "guarantees" stable long-term results for the averages of some random events. For example, while a casino may lose money in a single spin of the roulette wheel, its earnings will tend towards a predictable percentage over a large number of spins. Any winning streak by a player will eventually be overcome by the parameters of the game. It is important to remember that the LLN only applies (as the name indicates) when a large number of observations are considered. There is no principle that a small number of observations will coincide with the expected value or that a streak of one value will immediately be "balanced" by the others (see the gambler's fallacy)

    .im sure most players are familiar with this concept , and I was not saying for someone to put + .0001 to the test , im stating the numbers balance out in the long run.

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    Senior Member Bodarc's Avatar
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    You will never have a large enough bankroll because kelly is based on the size of your bankroll. If you over bet kelly it is possible to turn a + EV into a - EV. That is why Don said you are certain to go broke.
    Play within your bankroll, pick your games with care and learn everything you can about the game. The winning will come. It has to. It's in the cards. -- Bryce Carlson

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    Senior Member Nikky_Flash's Avatar
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    ok

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    5-1000? Not that it can't be done, but for post #1, I suspect you are trolling.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ohbehave View Post
    5-1000? Not that it can't be done, but for post #1, I suspect you are trolling.
    I've done it. Got a blackjack, too.
    The Cash Cow.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KJ View Post


    I gotta say, that I have never understood this either, Don. Seems to me that if you were to bet say $5 in all negative EV situations and say $500 in +EV counts, no matter how small, you ought to mathematically do pretty good (casino tolerance being a separate issue).

    I obviously am not a math guy (a term I use endearingly). I am probably as far away from a math guy as there is among the 'regular' members of this site. The good thing is that while blackjack is a lot of math, you don't have to completely understand all of it, all the formulas and such. I am able to trust that if folks like you, much smarter than myself, tell me that overbetting bankroll by factor of greater than 2 is certain bankruptcy then it must be so.
    EV is different from bankroll growth. Betting $500 on a .1% with a $1000 bankroll increases EV, but it does not increase long-term bankroll growth nearly as much as betting, say, $10.
    The Cash Cow.

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