Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
Not sure I understand. I probably should've said exact TC in my post. 0-6; 4-9; 8-12; 12-15 all represent 57%-43% remaining cards or mid level bet situation. But I was thinking you said they all have different TC. Exact TC would likely get the closest comparison of precise percentage.
Divide the difference by the ratio of cards unseen by total number of cards. There would be a bell curve around this calculation with a width dependent on the number of neutral cards. With 8 as the only neutral card you have a 4 card range of unknown that determine the width of your bell curve in a single deck game.

This is a good illustration of the power of ratios rather than true count. The RC in your above examples is -6, -5, -4, -3 respectively but they all have the same ratio of cards remaining in SD: 24,18; 20,15; 16,12; 12,9 of 4:3. Now the actual TC would be affected by the number of 8's removed which could be 0 to 4 eights in SD but the count would assume the 8's are removed 1 per 13 cards seen. Possible range of exact true count including neutral card info (the first column is the TC for exact card resolution everyone would use. It's application assumes 1 card seen for each neutral rank for every 13 cards seen. So the bell curve for that application would reflect this range but be centered around that number):
-6/(46/52) to -6/(42/52) = -6.78 to -7.43
-5/(39/52) to -5/(35/52) = -6.67 to -7.43
-4/(32/52) to -4/(28/52) = -6.5 to -7.43
-3/(25/52) to -3/(21/52) = -6.24 to -7.43

That is with 1 neutral card. Imagine the range of possible TC with 4 times as many neutral card (HILO and many other counts), it would only change the second column above:
-6/(30/52) = -6.78 to -10.40
-5/(23/52) = -6.67 to -11.30
-4/(16/52) = -6.5 to -13.00
-3/(9/52) = -6.24 to -17.33

There would be a bell curve of distribution in these ranges. So you would be most likely to be in the middle with a linear count but you would be 100% accurate every time using the ratios for your decision. The two ranges show the combined affect of pen and number of neutral cards on a counts accuracy. the pen is deceiving as the deeper you get the more likely you will visit the extremes represented by the range.