One more.
OAK +3.5 vs Hou - Oak lost to Jets who are better than people think and had to travel across the country, and Houston won vs Redskins who are as bad/worse as everyone expects.
One more.
OAK +3.5 vs Hou - Oak lost to Jets who are better than people think and had to travel across the country, and Houston won vs Redskins who are as bad/worse as everyone expects.
Timidity is dangerous: Better to enter with boldness. Any mistakes you commit through audacity are easily corrected with more audacity.
OK one more. That's it.
BUF -1.5 vs Mia - Betters are probably reading a little too much in the big Miami win vs NE. I can't clearly say Mia is better than Buffalo. Like their D, but their skill position players are pretty bad. Wallace and Moreno? Ewwww.
Timidity is dangerous: Better to enter with boldness. Any mistakes you commit through audacity are easily corrected with more audacity.
The combined records of the teams having the 6 lowest rushing yards (<40 yrds/game) through the first 2 weeks is 3-9…enter the SD Chargers rushing “O” @ 38 yrd/game against the 5th best rushing “D” (41/game)…this one dimensional attack against the Bill’s aggressive “D” and balanced “O” will prove too costly “out east” against an excited "plz stay in Buffalo" fan base…in my first “fire up a cigar by halftime” game…take the BILLS -2 and make a tee time at the half as this baby will be “ova” early
Good luck!
Sharky
Last week: 1-1
Season: 2-1
Hey Sharky sounds reasonable but the guy who gives me my NFL tips tells me different. He says QB driven league now Rivers far outweighs Manuel.....Seattle D couldn't even sniff Rivers last week, what is the Buffalo D supposed to do thats any better? Just food for thought.Originally Posted by Sharky
...your guy may be onto something...only teams with superior qb's that lost are Green Bay, Broncos and 49ers...
...in all seriousness though, Emanuel was pathetic...missed receivers all game..they were never in it...good news is it was a great afternoon for golf...as it was ova at the half
Yeah was leaning Buffalo myself, SD travels across the country after a big win vs. Seattle playing against a somewhat underrated Buffalo team, expected a let down. But Rivers is locked in right now.
Timidity is dangerous: Better to enter with boldness. Any mistakes you commit through audacity are easily corrected with more audacity.
Hard to get a handle on the Cowboys. Romo can blow any lead, especially with that D, but he also has a knack for coming back big. He actually seems to be more comfortable when down big.
Timidity is dangerous: Better to enter with boldness. Any mistakes you commit through audacity are easily corrected with more audacity.
The Detroit LIONS visit the NY Jets this week in what we see as the total mismatch of the very superior LIONS receivers vs very suspect Jet secondary…Mega Prob, Millner Doubtful…in “the gimme back my money, jack” put me in the green game of the week, take the LIONS -2 for an easy win.
GOOD LUCK!
Sharky
Last week: 0-1
Season: 2-2
Not sure I'm totally on board with your assessment of superiors qb's who lost.....Green Bay's Aaron Rodgers while possibly being the best in the biz, has not been this year and he went up against a very good qb in Stafford who has more weapons....I think that negates Rodgers superiority at least in that game. Broncos Manning may be an all time great but if I was starting a franchise today based on the Peyton of today, I would take the qb that beat him Russell Wilson over him in a heartbeat. And Kaepernick has really been mistake prone this year, and Jay Cutler is outplaying him hands down. So Im still on board the superior qb bandwagon for now.......
Ten +8 vs INDY - Know enough not to bet against Indy in a close line, but Indy does have a tendency to not show up at all in certain games.
"OAK" +4 vs Mia - Neutral field, and can't say Miami is clearly better than Oakland. Also, the weird disconnect between Philbin and Tannehill makes me suspect something more is going on with that team, kind of like Schiano last year.
Phi +4.5 vs SF - Weird things going on in SF with Harbaugh (possibly getting traded to Cleveland, going to Michigan?, players tired of him, upper managment tired of him), probably accounts for why they are not hitting on all cylinders. Plus calls are going Philly's way, which tends to be ongoing.
DAL +3 vs NO - Probably a game that will wind up with someone making a comeback to win close at the end, might as well take the points in this case. Plus NO still not hitting on all cylinders.
Wen't 1-3 last week, 5-8 this year.
Timidity is dangerous: Better to enter with boldness. Any mistakes you commit through audacity are easily corrected with more audacity.
On paper I would tend to pick a team like the 49ers, a good D vs a Good O bad D team as you mentioned, but too many of the intangibles are pointing Philly's way.
Timidity is dangerous: Better to enter with boldness. Any mistakes you commit through audacity are easily corrected with more audacity.
Hi Tthree! I'll comment on the other games later.
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I would be very hesitant to go HOU+4. Here's why:
DAL's Murray is league's leading rusher: 534 yds, 5.4 ypc, 5 TDs. The DAL O-Line is starting to gel. The whole offense look like it's improving.
DAL's Romo has 936 yds, 7 TDs, 4 INTs, QB rating is 98.7 overall; with QB rating of 60.8 (SFO - first game after back surgery), 93.5 (TEN), 116.8 (STL) & 137.4 (NO). If you discount Romo's rusty 1st-week performance (no off- and pre-season work), his passer rating is 116.02, 6 TDs, 1 INT in last 3 games.
HOU's Fitzpatrick has 902 yds, 5 TDs, 5 INTs, QB rating is 86.2 overall; with QB rating of 109.3 (WAS), 129.1 (OAK), 59.6 (NYG), 75.1 (BUF).
Bottomline: DAL offense has done much better than HOU against stiffer competition. DAL defensive stats may be weaker than HOU but their opposing offenses were much stronger than HOU's.
__
DAL-4 (3-1) playing at home
Offense: 28.8 ppg (4th), 383.8 ypg (8th), 218.8 pass ypg (20th), 165.0 rush ypg (1st)
Defense: 21.5 ppg (10th), 379.8 ypg (24th), 271.2 pass ypg (26th), 108.5 rush ypg (14th)
HOU+4 (3-1) - visiting team:
Offense: 21.8 ppg (22nd), 340.0 ypg (22nd), 225.2 pass ypg (19th), 114.8 rush ypg (19th)
Defense: 16.8 ppg (6th), 367.8 ypg (21st), 237.5 pass ypg (14th), 130.2 rush ypg (24th)
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Right now: for sure, DAL-4. Leaning towards "DAL-HOU Over 46"
"Over" has been winning 33 out of 61 games or 54% in the last 4 weeks.
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Update:
I'm sorry, Tthree! I just finished watching the BUF-HOU game rewind. HOU only managed to win 23-17 by preventing a BUF comeback in the last minute. The comeback was being orchestrated by Manuel (game QB rating = 59.4). Manuel is benched for Week 5 for Orton, DAL former backup QB.
HOU's rushers for the game was Foster (8 att, 6 yds, 0.8 ypc) & Blue (9 att, 9 yds, 1.0 ypc).
Since HOU, playing at home, had their hands full with BUF, I'm sure about the DAL-4.5. Not sure about O/U 46 -- I have no estimate for HOU, maybe < 20. I would say DAL over 26 pts is a safe bet!
I'm trying to look at GB-MIN TNF game.
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Last edited by Math Demon; 09-30-2014 at 04:51 PM.
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To NFL newbies: Please perform your own analysis. Confirm any stats presented. Draw your own conclusions.
Handicapping is EXTREMELY hard! All statistical evidence (and game insights) may indicate strongly a specific outcome, winner, or continuing trend; but a turn-over, a missed field goal, an erroneous call, a key injury, etc. can easily change the outcome, the margins, and/or the totals. Division rivalry games and games with playoff implications are highly unpredictable.
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Buffalo Bills “D” Coord Jim Schwartz returns to Detroit where he was 29-51 as head coach of the LIONS over the past 5 years…sans his lone winning season (2011) where he went 10-6, he was 19-45 as head coach…in my “welcome back, Jim…when in Rome, do as the Romans” play of the week…take the LIONS -7 for another easy win.
GOOD LUCK!
Sharky
Last week: 1-0
Season: 3-2
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