The Importance of the Top Bet

[Bodarc]

Forgetting Heat!

Today I ran a sim on a game and I noticed something. My top bet only occurs 6.29% of the time according to the count frequency. That is only 3.8 minutes out of the hour or 6.3 hands an hour. During this 6.3 hands, playing 2 spots, if I only lower my top bet from 2X125 to 2x100 it drops my hourly win rate from $ 66 per hour to $ 56 per hour. That is a $10 dollar per hour difference for only 4 minutes of play.

This tells me that you can not be timid about placing your bet. When the count is there, you have to shove the money out because a little change makes a world of difference.

[stopgambling]

EV has no meaning without considering risk and the ability to get to the long run or a certain amount of N0. To me that is at least 9 N0.

[Bodarc]

I am thinking more along the lines of sticking exactly to your strategy ie, count, bet and playing and what a difference a small change makes. Actually it's 157 NO.

[Three]

the ability to get to the long run or a certain amount of N0. To me that is at least 9 N0.

To me that is at least 9 N0.

I get the 9 times N0 being 3 SD, N0 is an exponential function. But 157 N0 is a really odd number. The square root of 157 is between 12 and 13 SD's. Are we all on the same page?

[Three]

I am thinking more along the lines of sticking exactly to your strategy ie, count, bet and playing

As opposed to what? Shouldn't we always stick to our plan at plus counts? I think you illustrated a great point for newbies that are afraid to put the sizable bets out according to plan.

[Bodarc]

Thanks Three
That was the purpose of the post to start with. I know the experienced players don't need that info.

PS The 157 NO was points, not times and was in answer to stopgambling.

[MJGolf]

Thanks for advice you "experienced" players.......I'm still trying to work on my spread to get it up there. Bodarc's post seems to help bring it home that if I don't increase my top bet/spread, I'm really not taking advantage of the 'advantage'

[Bodarc]

Thanks MJGolf

Of course I am talking in terms of your acceptable ROR and your chosen spread.

Your not so experienced OP