See the top rated post in this thread. Click here

Page 5 of 5 FirstFirst ... 345
Results 53 to 55 of 55

Thread: $1000 bankroll?

  1. #53


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Stealth View Post
    So, rather than tell you how overly optimistic you are let's answer your question.

    I used CVCX to model an environment that is using HiLo with sweet16/fab4 indexes

    I am playing 6deck 75% pen h17 ds

    I have a bankroll of 1000 and I am playing a $10 game. (You mentioned playing 5-10 but we need to sim the bigger game to protect your bank.) We are playing at a 1-12 optimal spread.

    Here are the results:
    Attachment 2186

    As circled you will be playing a game with an advantage of .654%. Your risk of losing all your bank during this sessions of 3 hours is22.5%.

    Your risk of continue to do this and losing your entire bank is 87%.

    Your probability of doubling your bankroll in 3 hours is 25.8%, in 6 hours is 42.4%.

    Practically speaking, let's examine one exposure to your bankroll:

    We have a TC +4. You have a pair and BS indicates to split, you do and get more of the same card and end up splitting to four hands, three of them have become 11's so we double. So, now we have $120 bet X 7 = 840. The dealers has a 6 up, flips a face card and then hits a 5 and sweeps your bets. This is real and can and will happen. It should now be obvious that you can not do many of these with this bankroll.

    Now, if your bankroll is replenishable, your have a different set of exposures and should use this to begin your research on how to evaluate them.

    Hope this helps.
    Change your assumptions so that he is wonging in/out at TC +2 with a $10 bet and is betting $25 at TC +6 or higher. There is no way this guy can be playing all at a $10 min shoe game with a $1,000 BR. With these revised assumptions, I get a ROR of 14.7%. Win per hour is just under $3, and this style of play really sucks, so this is only worthwhile if he really enjoys playing the game.

    Over 500 hours (a years play for a heavy non-professional), he has a 78% chance of doubling his money and a 12% chance of going broke.

  2. #54
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    3rd rock from Sol, Milky Way Galaxy
    Posts
    14,158


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Cougfan View Post
    Over 500 hours (a years play for a heavy non-professional), he has a 78% chance of doubling his money and a 12% chance of going broke.
    That's $2/hour for the math challenged. So you risk $1K with about a 1 in 8 chance of losing it in order to make $2/hr for 500 hours the other 7 out of 8 times, if that. That doesn't sound like a great plan to me.
    Last edited by Three; 12-24-2015 at 11:04 AM.

  3. #55
    Banned or Suspended
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Eastern U S A
    Posts
    6,830


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No

    A ROR of 87% is bizarre for anyone to accept.

    That is eleven twelfths (11/12).

    A simplistic way to look at that is:

    There are twelve months per year.

    You said $1,000 per month.

    You like losing $11,000 per annum ?

Page 5 of 5 FirstFirst ... 345

Similar Threads

  1. Bankroll
    By roccodean in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 8
    Last Post: 04-28-2012, 03:27 PM
  2. My second Bankroll has been wipe out..
    By sickcalla in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 36
    Last Post: 03-07-2012, 07:52 AM
  3. Swings/Bankroll
    By Oneoffthecount in forum General Blackjack Forum
    Replies: 8
    Last Post: 03-01-2012, 01:20 PM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.