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Thread: 19 v 10. Is this negative EV at a high count?

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    19 v 10. Is this negative EV at a high count?

    When I have 19 and dealer has a 10, my understanding is that it is negative EV before dealer checks his hole card, but if he does not have BJ, then I have an advantage.
    However, if the count is high, does the advantage switch to the dealer? If so, at what count?
    For example, if I have next card info, I have 7,4 and know that next card is an 8, and dealer has 10 but no BJ, should I not double at a TC of +10 HiLo (RC of 21 with 2 decks remaining)?

  2. #2


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    I couldn't figure out a good way of getting a clear answer but,

    for hi-lo 19 v 10 becomes -EV anywhere from 5.25-6.25 true.
    Maman died today. Or yesterday maybe, I don't know.

  3. #3
    Senior Member Tarzan's Avatar
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    Here's the thing. This information serves no actual purpose other than academic observation. It's not like you are going to do anything at all other than stand on 19vsT and the EV will not drop far enough to warrant surrendering no matter what. May I ask about the origin of the question or why you wish to know this? It's at a lowly TC+2 or so that this becomes a negative expectation hand, with the more negative the count, the higher EV for the hand but regardless of what the EV is the playing decision for this hand never changes! It would take nearly a complete saturation of (T) in the remainder of the deck to surrender so that's out also. This is not information that will help your game at all, so it makes me curious as to why anyone would ask this particular question. Are you making a new and freaky blackjack trivia game?

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    Quote Originally Posted by Thirdbaseman View Post
    For example, if I have next card info, I have 7,4 and know that next card is an 8, and dealer has 10 but no BJ, should I not double at a TC of +10 HiLo (RC of 21 with 2 decks remaining)?
    From the last paragraph of the original post, Tarzan.

  5. #5
    Senior Member Tarzan's Avatar
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    No, you wouldn't double the 7,4 in that instance with the next card information (8) but let's get back to the practicality thing. How often will you find yourself at TC+10 or more as you are sitting there with 11vsT and have next card information that there's an 8 as the next card? The question arises on how you would have this next card knowledge at that particular moment in time and how often this could play out to have the next card knowledge in that exact TC/deck composition with that particular hand. I know of how next card opportunities can come up at odd intervals but it's hard to count on. In this instance the decision should be to double with 9 or T and stand on the 8 as the next card.

    Next card knowledge can be incredibly valuable but it's never anything you can count on unless you have an incredibly sloppy dealer and even then it's hit and miss. I've seen a few weird situations where I got flashed the next card and took full advantage of the situation but it just doesn't happen all that often. Now you know though... Should you encounter this hand, have a TC+10 or more and get flashed the next card somehow you know that "Get a 9 and you're doin' fine but get an 8 that's not so great"?Hahahaha Do you understand what I am saying about this scenario having little bearing on your actual play or income? A little Pragmatism is called for here. To fixate on what we can do little or nothing about distracts you away from devoting yourself to more pertinent factors that you can use to control outcome. I'm not saying to ignore an obscure situation such as this entirely. The snap judgment to act appropriately when given next card information is nothing to sneeze at but there are things much more vital to focus on that will have a more significant impact on your overall EV is all. I hope this helps rather than confusing the issue further. Mapping out what to do for various next card/hole card situations is one thing but I don't understand trying to evaluate the 19vsT.
    Last edited by Tarzan; 08-10-2014 at 12:06 AM.

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    Tarzan, just for sh*ts and grins, at what TC would you double rather than hit (I know you meant hit above) your 11vT in the 8 next card situation example assuming a "normal" distribution of middle cards. How do the middle ranks affect the decision when they get out of whack at the neutral middle card threshold for the decision. I know you already know the answer and don't have to run any sims to come up with it.

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    Muckz, Thanks for your response.
    Joker, Thanks for clarifying the question.
    Tarzan, This was a situation I encountered. It may never happen again. But I was curious if I did the right thing by not doubling. Virtually every hand I play, it is clear what move I should make. This time I wasn't quite sure.
    Tthree, To restate your question, at what TC or higher would you hit rather than double? Muckz thinks it may be 5.25 to 6.25.
    I don't have the mathematical abilities of alot of you, but I figured at a RC of +21 with 2 decks remaining, I probably had close to 50% of the remaining cards being 10s (given the limitations of my HiLo count) , and thus the dealer had a good chance of having a 20. So I was pretty sure it was wise to not double, but I was thinking what if the TC was not quite as high, what would I have done.
    Last edited by Thirdbaseman; 08-13-2014 at 06:40 AM.

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Thirdbaseman View Post
    Tthree, To restate your question, at what TC or higher would you hit rather than double?
    Considering the next card info.

  9. #9


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    Index
    Double Down
    No Double Down
    Diff
    -10
    0.307935
    0.153968
    0.153968
    -9
    0.293187
    0.146594
    0.146594
    -8
    0.273494
    0.136747
    0.136747
    -7
    0.258377
    0.129189
    0.129189
    -6
    0.238415
    0.119208
    0.119208
    -5
    0.220802
    0.110401
    0.110401
    -4
    0.199102
    0.099551
    0.099551
    -3
    0.178237
    0.089119
    0.089119
    -2
    0.155595
    0.077798
    0.077798
    -1
    0.133580
    0.066790
    0.066790
    0
    0.113970
    0.056985
    0.056985
    1
    0.092520
    0.046260
    0.046260
    2
    0.070529
    0.035264
    0.035264
    3
    0.048525
    0.024262
    0.024262
    4
    0.025075
    0.012538
    0.012538
    5
    0.005476
    0.002738
    0.002738
    6
    -0.020352
    -0.010176
    -0.010176
    7
    -0.040510
    -0.020255
    -0.020255
    8
    -0.063887
    -0.031944
    -0.031944
    9
    -0.085935
    -0.042967
    -0.042967
    10
    -0.107403
    -0.053701
    -0.053701

    Almost 100% certain about this.
    Maman died today. Or yesterday maybe, I don't know.

  10. #10
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    The question is when your double down will result in a 19vT at what count don't you doble down and how much do the neutral cards affect this decision (how significant are the neutral cards) and how would atypical neytral card configurations affect whether 19vT is better played at normal bet or double the normal bet.

  11. #11


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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    The question is when your double down will result in a 19vT at what count don't you doble down and how much do the neutral cards affect this decision (how significant are the neutral cards) and how would atypical neytral card configurations affect whether 19vT is better played at normal bet or double the normal bet.
    7,8,9 are all very significant in this situation. For the OP's context, the chart should be correct, Player 11, receive 8, dealer 10. I would imagine the 7 and 8 would carry large -ev when removed, the simulation should have already accounted for all of that though.
    Maman died today. Or yesterday maybe, I don't know.

  12. #12
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    Quote Originally Posted by muckz View Post
    I would imagine the 7 and 8 would carry large -ev when removed, the simulation should have already accounted for all of that though.
    If you are tracking them it hasn't. Their influence being strong also may demand some risk aversion when not having the extra middle card info. That will depend on your style of play and your BR. I know when I was a red chipper I wanted more certainty as your only real defense against ruin. Now I can easily afford large swings so I have loosened up some but I still like high degree of certainty to be a part of the way I play.

  13. #13


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    Weird thread...
    Blackjack will test your soul, your character, and the very fiber of your being.
    Don Schlesinger.

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