Sweet 16 Question

[DSchles]

"As I had indicated in my original post I have not even started to look at insurance and insurance decisions. In one of the BJ books I read the author seemed to indicate that there was only a small percentage fraction to be gained playing with insurance as opposed to not using insurance at all. This is one of the reasons I have not concentrated on insurance; because I did not think the gain was worth the extra complexity."

For the record, can you tell us which book that was? You should burn it, by the way.

And, again, the legitimate question is: What complexity are you talking about? You are putting off taking insurance in multi-deck when the TC is +3 or higher for what reason, exactly? You are learning other indices, but this one is too tough for you???? You understand that you're not making a lot of sense, don't you?

Don

[Three]

^^^What he said.^^^

Insurance is by far the most important index to learn.

[Night_Rider]

For the record, can you tell us which book that was? You should burn it, by the way.

And, again, the legitimate question is: What complexity are you talking about? You are putting off taking insurance in multi-deck when the TC is +3 or higher for what reason, exactly? You are learning other indices, but this one is too tough for you???? You understand that you're not making a lot of sense, don't you?

Don

Don, Yes, I understand that I may not be making a lot of sense. I think I indicated in one of my posts that I am a beginner; I have only been at this for a few weeks. And as a beginner I may ask some questions that, to some one on a professional level, seem dumb. I apologize for being a beginner and asking dumb questions but this is one of the ways in which I learn. Perhaps there is a forum for beginners? If there is please direct me to it. Also, please understand that one of the ways in which humans learn is to break things down in to smaller segments that can be learned more easily. And this is what I am doing. I have put off learning about insurance decisions until I have basic strategy and some alterations down. I am not completely familiar with how others learn but perhaps there are those out there that can memorize a whole chart at a glance. I do not have a photographic memory so I have to break it down into parts; at least for now until I become more familiar with the subject matter. As far as complexity.... as I said I have not even considered insurance, until now, so I really have no clue about the complexity. But, since it is another facet of the game and strategy I would think that it adds an additional set of decisions to consider... for a beginner this is complexity.

As for the book I saw the information in... The book is called "Beat The Dealer," by Edward O. Thorp. The chart on page 97 (figure 7.1 Player's Advantage as High/Lo Index Varies) seems to indicate that there is only a slight advantage using insurance over not using insurance. According to this figure the advantage of using insurance grows as the count increases but does not seem to reach a significant difference until the count has advanced considerably. At a count of 50 (not sure if this is running or true count) it appears to be the difference between 10% advantage not using insurance vs. about a 13% advantage with insurance. Now, depending on the analysis an additional 3% may or may not be significant. For example.... if I was playing with a $100,000 BR then 3% might be significant. But if I am playing with $300 not so much. Take a beer and a glass. Pour 3% of the beer into the glass and how much does it fill the glass? Not much.

Anyway, that is where I got the info and why I have not been trying to memorize insurance decisions yet. I am planning to learn them.... I've just put it off until I have a better grip on the basic strategy and the indices I am going to use. Please tell me if I am wrong in doing this.

Night_Rider

P.S: I will pitch the book in the trash as soon as I have completed this post. Obviously the guy is a quack.

[Intermediate]

I have put off learning about insurance decisions until I have basic strategy and some alterations down.

You have a misunderstanding that Insurance is a different animal than Basic Strategy and Playing deviations. In fact, Insuring is just another play, like surrender, splitting, doubling, hitting or standing, which is part of Basic Strategy and the Playing deviations.

You may be overthinking your learning plan.

[Norm]

Agree, but not entirely. As a beginner, when you are playing your hand, you know you have to make decisions and make them at your own speed. Insurance is different in that the dealer asks and sweeps his hand over the hands For a beginner, this can be a bit more daunting.

[DSchles]

"Please tell me if I am wrong in doing this."

You're wrong in doing this. If you used only one single strategy variation and no others, then insurance would be the one to use (with 16 v. 10 next). And, I know you're new, but you keep on talking about insurance decisionS, and insurance index numberS, and complexity. If you play a shoe game, there is a single number to learn for Hi-Lo: +3. End of story. TC >=+3? You take insurance. Otherwise, you don't. Now, that isn't too complex for a beginner, is it?

So, if you've learned a single index number, and it isn't insurance, then I'm telling you to forget all the other numbers, if you have to choose, and learn this one!

As for Thorp, I assume you're being a little sarcastic and tongue-in-cheek, but that certainly isn't the first book you should be reading at this stage of your learning. It may be the most important blackjack book ever written, but more so for historical value than for pertinence to a newcomer to the game.

As for the insurance graph, virtually all decision graphs would look similar to that one. Past the strike point, the edge for using most indices gets bigger as the count increases. These edges are never astronomical, so if you think insurance isn't worth all that much to your game, taken as a single play, the question is: can you find a different play that is worth more? And the answer is: no, you can't!

Don

[Marvin]

P.S: I will pitch the book in the trash as soon as I have completed this post. Obviously the guy is a quack.

Are you just trolling?

[stopgambling]

Put more thoughts on ins. Use it to help you...................

[DSchles]

"Why didn't splitting 10s vs 4 make the cut?"

Short answer: A play that you get to make about once every 8,000 hands doesn't make the cut!!

Don

[Intermediate]

[QUOTE=moses;13381Splitting 10s create stuff. Against 5,6 is worth it. Against 4 is a tough call.[/QUOTE]

If you reach the right true count for the split and you don't mind the attenton, why not split? I think the point is does ithe situation come up often enough TC >=6 to make it worth worrying about.

[DSchles]

TC of +6 or higher becomes increasingly rarer than TC of +5 or +4. Surely, you understand that. In addition, dealer upcard of 5 or 6 has greater chance of breaking than dealer 4. Combining those two factors makes splitting vs. the 4 much less advantageous than against 5 or 6.

As for frequency, you get 10,10 vs. 4, 727 times out of 100,000. You get a true count of +6 or higher, 1.63% of the time. I made a mistake before, for which I apologize. Looks more like once every 2,200 hands. Still not terribly valuable to learn an index for a play that you'll make, on average, once every 22 hours! And, remember, at +6, the edge is just marginal.

Don

Don

[Night_Rider]

"Please tell me if I am wrong in doing this."

You're wrong in doing this. If you used only one single strategy variation and no others, then insurance would be the one to use (with 16 v. 10 next). And, I know you're new, but you keep on talking about insurance decisionS, and insurance index numberS, and complexity. If you play a shoe game, there is a single number to learn for Hi-Lo: +3. End of story. TC >=+3? You take insurance. Otherwise, you don't. Now, that isn't too complex for a beginner, is it?

So, if you've learned a single index number, and it isn't insurance, then I'm telling you to forget all the other numbers, if you have to choose, and learn this one!

As for Thorp, I assume you're being a little sarcastic and tongue-in-cheek, but that certainly isn't the first book you should be reading at this stage of your learning. It may be the most important blackjack book ever written, but more so for historical value than for pertinence to a newcomer to the game.

As for the insurance graph, virtually all decision graphs would look similar to that one. Past the strike point, the edge for using most indices gets bigger as the count increases. These edges are never astronomical, so if you think insurance isn't worth all that much to your game, taken as a single play, the question is: can you find a different play that is worth more? And the answer is: no, you can't!

Don

Don, Thank you for the reply. This one is much more instructional than your first. And yes, I was being a little sarcastic about Thorp... but, you were the one that suggested I burn it.

"Beat The Dealer," was not the first book I read. Actually, the first was "Winning Blackjack For The Serious Player," by Edwin Silberstang. Silberstang, on pages 48 - 51 in the section on 'Player's Options', explains and discusses insurance. I am not sure if he is talking multi-deck games here or single deck games but it IS after the section about Casinos, Shoes and Multi-Deck games so its hard not to infer that he had multi-deck in mind when writing this section. According to Silberstang, on page 51 where he summarized the insurance bet, "The insurance wager is generally bad for the player. There will be times when it is worthwhile, but only when a player is counting cards and knows that the ratio of other cards to 10s is 2-1 or less." So I did not just dream this stuff up. Both of the books, that I have read so far, suggests, either directly or indirectly, that insurance might not be worth worrying about. Hence, my question about insurance. Also, as both you and the books suggest, insurance should only be used with a requisite count. I have not even started to work on card counting (as suggested by the books that I learn basic strategy first). And I only began working on indexing my basic strategy about a week ago. I do plan to incorporate insurance into my repertoire - I just haven't got that far yet. If I am wrong in learning BJ by breaking it down into smaller chunks that I can chew - well, I apologize. But that's the way I have to learn it. I just can not memorize the entire strategy for BJ in one big chunk all at one time. Maybe you can but not me.

Anyway, I do appreciate your reply about insurance and its use in situations where the count is +3 or more. I will certainly incorporate insurance into my strategy. But, can you see, based on the books I have been reading, where I got the idea that insurance may not be worth bothering with?

Thanks

Night_Rider

[DSchles]

This discussion is positively bizarre. Every single person who has responded to you, including me, understands that you are a card counter who uses indices to make BS departures. You said so yourself in your original post!!! (But, you didn't realize what you were saying!) Now, above, you write: "Also, as both you and the books suggest, insurance should only be used with a requisite count. I have not even started to work on card counting (as suggested by the books that I learn basic strategy first).

So, I'm sorry to have to tell you this, but you are hopelessly confused! I don't think you have a clue as to what "indexing my basic strategy" means. In fact, I'd venture to say that none of us understands what you intend it to mean either.

You need to reread these posts and understand what is being told to you.

Don