Betting strategy

[ahjooma]

Hello,
I was reading "Blackbelt in blackjack" and I was wondering which
method you use to determine your bets?
kelly betting or 5%ROR? I'd been basing my bets using tables
in "Blackjack: Play Like the Pros" which I think is based on
5% ROR of your bankroll. I am finding the fluctuations
difficult..I'm doing okay for the year but last trip,
despite what I thought was good play, I lost
like 6% of my BR wiping out profits from 2.5 trips.

i guess I still have a newbie attitude of thinking of money won
as money I have in the bank.. I think of everything I could have done with the money..
I'm not sure I'm cut out for this. I don't want to risk big
but to play conservatively, the money is not worth the time, breathing in smoke,
and the heart palpitations. I think I will just play conservatively if I happen to be at a location
for a vacation.

Anyway, thanks for listening.

[muckz]

A very large majority use Norm's software.

[ahjooma]

A very large majority use Norm's software.

Casino Verite or CVCX?
i just have the ios app and the demo version of the Casino Verite on my PC.

[code red]

CVCX if you're looking to run a sim on the game you're playing to find optimal bets based on a set ROR.

This software has paid for itself already

[ahjooma]

CVCX if you're looking to run a sim on the game you're playing to find optimal bets based on a set ROR.

This software has paid for itself already

Thnx muckz and code red!

[bigplayer]

Bet to your risk adjusted advantage. The formula for Full Kelly is BR x Edge/Variance For 21 the standardized variance is 1.32 for most games and 1.28 for late surrender games. For example for a $10,000 Bankroll and an 0.5% advantage at a game with late surrender your optimum bet for full Kelly is $10,000 x (.005/1.28) = $39 rounding to something like one hand of $40 or two hands of $50 for each 0.5% above break-even. If Full Kelly is too risky for you then you bet a fraction of Kelly (i.e., Half Kelly would be one hand of $20 or two hands of $25). Your top bet should be as high as you think you can get away with. If you're betting 2@$50 at +2 High-Low then you technically could justify betting 2@$450 at +10 True if you think the casino would take it although on today's typical games you're rarely going to have a TC higher than +6.

Programs like CVCX (and an earlier program called BJRM-2000) figure out the variance for each count bucket, set of rules, and bet spread to determine your optimum bets with much better accuracy than doing these sort of back of the envelope calculations.

[ahjooma]

Bet to your risk adjusted advantage. The formula for Full Kelly is BR x Edge/Variance For 21 the standardized variance is 1.32 for most games and 1.28 for late surrender games. For example for a $10,000 Bankroll and an 0.5% advantage at a game with late surrender your optimum bet for full Kelly is $10,000 x (.005/1.28) = $39 rounding to something like one hand of $40 or two hands of $50 for each 0.5% above break-even. If Full Kelly is too risky for you then you bet a fraction of Kelly (i.e., Half Kelly would be one hand of $20 or two hands of $25). Your top bet should be as high as you think you can get away with. If you're betting 2@$50 at +2 High-Low then you technically could justify betting 2@$450 at +10 True if you think the casino would take it although on today's typical games you're rarely going to have a TC higher than +6.

Programs like CVCX (and an earlier program called BJRM-2000) figure out the variance for each count bucket, set of rules, and bet spread to determine your optimum bets with much better accuracy than doing these sort of back of the envelope calculations.

thanks big player!

[BOND]

Casino Verite or CVCX?
i just have the ios app and the demo version of the Casino Verite on my PC.

I recommend CVBJ + CVSH + CVDATA/CVCX. This will cover most AP situations.

[ahjooma]

Finally ordered cvdata/cvcx.
thanks Bond.

[SeeWhatHappens]

ahjooma wrote : I'm not sure I'm cut out for this. I don't want to risk big
but to play conservatively, the money is not worth the time, breathing in smoke,

Hi ahjooma 1 fifth of health diseases are tobacco related in the usa

http://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_stat...ted_mortality/

Seek out non smoking tables or if you can request it

Best of luck ! .................................................. .............................................

[Three]

Seek out non smoking tables or if you can request it

Best of luck ! .................................................. .............................................

The whole pit staff loves you for requesting it. Especially the dealers.

[Bodarc]

I am finding the fluctuations
difficult..I'm doing okay for the year but last trip,
despite what I thought was good play, I lost
like 6% of my BR wiping out profits from 2.5 trips.

i guess I still have a newbie attitude of thinking of money won
as money I have in the bank.. I think of everything I could have done with the money..
I'm not sure I'm cut out for this. I don't want to risk big
but to play conservatively, the money is not worth the time, breathing in smoke,
and the heart palpitations. I think I will just play conservatively if I happen to be at a location
for a vacation.

Hi ahjooma

I don't know what your bankroll is but let's just assume it is $10,000. Losing 6% of 10,000 is only $ 600.
Betting 5 to 60 for a 12 spread and approx 5% ROR and a few hours of play, you could easily lose $ 600.
If you were betting 10 to 120 with a higher ROR you could easily lose more and still be within 1 Standard Deviation.

I quote from Blackjack Attack " Peter Griffin estimates we're at an all-time high only 1% of the time. Thus, 99% of the time, we have the nagging feeling that we "once had more."

If you are to play this game, you must accept standard deviation and the fact you will have losses and some I am sure will be greater than 6%. If you get heart palpitations with your current bet scheme, I would say you need to cut back and don't worry about the low win rate. Play that lower strategy until you stop having these panic attacks and then gradually increase your betting schedule.

You are the only one who can determine how much risk you can handle. This game is not for everyone and there is nothing wrong with being a casual player for fun.

[Three]

At an all time BR high here after losing 1/3rd of my BR in less than a week last year. Made it back with a smaller spread due to having to draw down to manage risk.

If you are playing a strong game and managing risk properly just trust the math.