Question for Don S. and Other Math Experts

**BOND** · 06-01-2014, 03:37 PM

I am running CVDATA sims on the following game: Full ES, S17, DAS, ENHC, NRSA, 6d, Penetration=75%, MIN=$2, MAX=$50, Assume AP is using Hi/Lo, playing alone, is permitted to play max $50 on all 7 spots on the table with no heat. For example, he can play 7 x $2 and max at 7 x $50; he can also play, for example, from 1 x $2 up to 7 x $50. Assume the AP has a $50,000 bankroll with him at the table.

1) What is the optimum # of betting spots and spread for the AP?

2) What is the optimum bet ramp at the true counts?

**DSchles** · 06-01-2014, 05:19 PM

1) What is the optimum # of betting spots and spread for the AP?

2) What is the optimum bet ramp at the true counts?

This game has an off-the-top PLAYER edge of 0.116%!! So, if your BR is $50,000, the optimal initial wager is one hand of almost $50. The minute you would get to TC = +1, your edge is surely very close to 0.7%, if not more. Taking into account variance, your optimal one-hand bet would be around $280. So, without the slightest hesitation, you could now bet all seven hands at $50. In fact, if they would take the action, you could bet almost double that amount.

Don

**SURFER** · 06-01-2014, 06:10 PM

Thats one big if!!

**BOND** · 06-01-2014, 10:02 PM

Originally Posted by DSchles

1) What is the optimum # of betting spots and spread for the AP?

2) What is the optimum bet ramp at the true counts?

This game has an off-the-top PLAYER edge of 0.116%!! So, if your BR is $50,000, the optimal initial wager is one hand of almost $50. The minute you would get to TC = +1, your edge is surely very close to 0.7%, if not more. Taking into account variance, your optimal one-hand bet would be around $280. So, without the slightest hesitation, you could now bet all seven hands at $50. In fact, if they would take the action, you could bet almost double that amount.

Don

Thanks for the analysis Don.

I ran 2 sims with the following betting strategies:

=< -1/2.....1 x $2.....7 x $2
0..............1 x $50...7 x $50
+1/2.........7 x $50...7 x $50
+1............7 x $50...7 x $50
+2..................................

sim1: winrate=$71.19, SCORE=71.19, ROR=0.48%, BR=$10K
sim2: winrate=$215.39/per 700 hands, SCORE=116.40, ROR=1.24%, BR=$10K

1) Why is the SCORE higher on sim2? sim2 is betting 7 x $2 in negative counts, while sim1 is betting less in negative counts 1 x $2. Which sim has the higher winrate/hour? Assume the AP can play 350 hands/hour on average, his winrate is about $107.70/hour for sim2. And for sim1?

2) In your opinion, which is the more optimum betting strategy and why?

**Three** · 06-02-2014, 07:35 AM

Originally Posted by BOND

Why is the SCORE higher on sim2? sim2 is betting 7 x $2 in negative counts, while sim1 is betting less in negative counts 1 x $2.

You are eating 4 times as many cards each round in a negative count with sim 2. So you would be playing many more positive count rounds per hour in sim 2 over sim 1. If you are using a level 1 count and there are 2.7 cards per hand used each round sim 1 uses 5 or 6 cards per round on average (RC can change by -4 to +6 or more each round (ace neutral count)) while sim 2 uses about 23 cards per round (RC can change between -16 to +23 or more each round). In negative counts a large swing in RC is desired in a round. In mildly positive count the count can soar and then fall within a round if you play 7 hands. Had you been playing 1 hand you could have got some bigger bets out before the count fell back to the same as the start of the round. There is also issues that you make a decision at first base at one RC and the dealer may hit at a very different RC when you are playing multiple spots. If you are playing 1 spot the dealer hits right after you which makes decisions more precise. Your decision is based on the idea that the dealer hits at about the same TC you do. If the TC moves a point or 2 after you make your decision if you had known that beforehand you may have made a different decision. Anyway when card eating has great benefits with no downside betting more hands is optimal. When card eating costs you betting opportunities and make plays less accurate at higher bets it will hurt you. The optimal number of hands depends on a lot of things including how many others are playing at the table.

**Freightman** · 06-02-2014, 10:05 AM

I have to question your interpretation of the rules. Are you sure S17 and full ES on a 2.00 min game? Not trying to be a smart aleck, but what region is this game?

**BOND** · 06-02-2014, 02:22 PM

Originally Posted by Freightman

I have to question your interpretation of the rules. Are you sure S17 and full ES on a 2.00 min game? Not trying to be a smart aleck, but what region is this game?

I prefer not to disclose the location of this game. Yes, it is S17 and full ES with a $2 min and $50 max bet.

**Three** · 06-02-2014, 02:23 PM

Originally Posted by BOND

I prefer not to disclose the location of this game. Yes, it is S17 and full ES with a $2 min and $50 max bet.

What about an ante?

**BOND** · 06-02-2014, 06:38 PM

Originally Posted by Tthree

What about an ante?

No ante is this game.

**BOND** · 06-02-2014, 06:59 PM

Originally Posted by Tthree

You are eating 4 times as many cards each round in a negative count with sim 2. So you would be playing many more positive count rounds per hour in sim 2 over sim 1. If you are using a level 1 count and there are 2.7 cards per hand used each round sim 1 uses 5 or 6 cards per round on average (RC can change by -4 to +6 or more each round (ace neutral count)) while sim 2 uses about 23 cards per round (RC can change between -16 to +23 or more each round). In negative counts a large swing in RC is desired in a round. In mildly positive count the count can soar and then fall within a round if you play 7 hands. Had you been playing 1 hand you could have got some bigger bets out before the count fell back to the same as the start of the round. There is also issues that you make a decision at first base at one RC and the dealer may hit at a very different RC when you are playing multiple spots. If you are playing 1 spot the dealer hits right after you which makes decisions more precise. Your decision is based on the idea that the dealer hits at about the same TC you do. If the TC moves a point or 2 after you make your decision if you had known that beforehand you may have made a different decision. Anyway when card eating has great benefits with no downside betting more hands is optimal. When card eating costs you betting opportunities and make plays less accurate at higher bets it will hurt you. The optimal number of hands depends on a lot of things including how many others are playing at the table.

Thanks for your input Tthree. As described in the first post, the AP has the table all to himself and no other players enter the game.

1) If the AP can average 350 hands/hour, what is his actual winrate/hour in sim1?

2) In your opinion, which betting strategy is optimum for this AP in this particular game? Sim1 or Sim2? Assume 2 scenarios: AP has a $10k bankroll in scenario 1 and a $50k bankroll in scenario 2.

**code red** · 06-02-2014, 07:13 PM

Early surrender is out there people.

Sounds like a great game BOND. Normally I'd wish people luck when playing blackjack, but you won't need it with that edge.

**BOND** · 06-03-2014, 05:04 PM

Anymore analysis and feedback Don S. or Tthree? Any helpful insights as to the optimum betting ramp? And why the SCORE is higher on sim 2 vs. sim 1?

I used Hi/Lo and floored the true count indices in both sims.

**DSchles** · 06-03-2014, 09:10 PM

I already explained to you that there is no optimal betting ramp. You bet the seven hands of $50 at +1, and you're done. Don't overthink this.

Tthree already answered why the second sim SCORE is higher; you're eating all the bad cards by playing seven hands at the minimum. The fact that you're betting a little more ($12) is a small price to pay for getting into the next shoe that much faster.

Don