Positive Count while losing with Crap Cards (7/10) while others getting good hands.

[Three]

When the deck is rich in low cards it less likely that the dealer will make a pat hand and it is also makes it less likely that the dealer will busts when he has to draw."]

This is wrong and conflicts with itself. The dealer either makes a pat hand or busts unless all players bust then the dealer doesn't play out his hand.

When the deck contains a large number of tens and aces it increases the players chances of drawing a pat hand (17 or higher) or getting a natural blackjack. It also increases the chances that the dealer will bust

This is wrong. The dealer will bust less at a high count but bust a stiff more often. At a high count the dealer will show fewer stiffs and draw a T more often to his total this results in a lower bust rate in general but a higher likelihood of busting the fewer times the dealer gets a weak upcard.

http://www.blackjackincolor.com/useless2.htm

The bust advantage is you don't have to hit and bust if your total is likely to bust but the dealer has no choice but play his hand the same way regardless of the count. You win more money because you will get more BJ's, more frequent doubles and splits with better outcomes overall for them and since the dealer is more likely to get a BJ as well you can take insurance when it is profitable to do so. Remember only you get a bonus on BJ, the dealer doesn't. Both you and the dealer will make more hands but those decreased chances of getting a weak hand that will bust more often you can choose not to hit but the dealer has no choice but to hit. You don't raise your bet because you will win more hands but because your matchups overall will give you a higher return at high counts primarily from payouts larger than your bet. You would bet more if you were simply more likely to win (a linear relationship) but by getting larger payouts than your bet the relationship is not linear. Of course if you negate pushes and only consider wins and losses your win rate goes up significantly more. This is mostly because of decrease in lose rate and increase in push rate.

Basically you raise your bet because each bet expects a higher return not because you will win a higher percentage of hands.

[KoolAid90]

Yeah you just got rocked. Pat hands 17-19 are overall losers in any count (19 is close it might be slightly a winner). Dealer busts only slightly more. You don't have to raise your bets in positive counts to win. If you ONLY play positive counts with a flat bet that is also a winning game. Low counts are bad because the player will stand on more hands 12-16 because dealer will have a low upcard more often only to draw to a pat hand and win.

Yeah definitely got rocked and shocked. Wow. I am glad I searched out this question I suppose.

Thanks for all the advice ohbehave, I really appreciate it.

Just to clarify on your comment:
[If you ONLY play positive counts with a flat bet that is also a winning game.]

This means that a positive count with $5 minimum flat betting is a game where I can theoretically come out on top?

[KoolAid90]

This is wrong and conflicts with itself. The dealer either makes a pat hand or busts unless all players bust then the dealer doesn't play out his hand.


This is wrong. The dealer will bust less at a high count but bust a stiff more often. At a high count the dealer will show fewer stiffs and draw a T more often to his total this results in a lower bust rate in general but a higher likelihood of busting the fewer times the dealer gets a weak upcard.

http://www.blackjackincolor.com/useless2.htm

The bust advantage is you don't have to hit and bust if your total is likely to bust but the dealer has no choice but play his hand the same way regardless of the count. You win more money because you will get more BJ's, more frequent doubles and splits with better outcomes overall for them and since the dealer is more likely to get a BJ as well you can take insurance when it is profitable to do so. Remember only you get a bonus on BJ, the dealer doesn't. Both you and the dealer will make more hands but those decreased chances of getting a weak hand that will bust more often you can choose not to hit but the dealer has no choice but to hit. You don't raise your bet because you will win more hands but because your matchups overall will give you a higher return at high counts primarily from payouts larger than your bet. You would bet more if you were simply more likely to win (a linear relationship) but by getting larger payouts than your bet the relationship is not linear. Of course if you negate pushes and only consider wins and losses your win rate goes up significantly more. This is mostly because of decrease in lose rate and increase in push rate.

Basically you raise your bet because each bet expects a higher return not because you will win a higher percentage of hands.

Well this thread has tossed my fishing bowl upside down and around.

Thanks for the advice Tthree, its been amazing and eye opening.

Can you help expand on what you mean by the word matchups? I want to make sure I get every detail of what you have said.

["You don't raise your bet because you will win more hands but because your {matchups overall} will give you a higher return at high counts primarily from payouts larger than your bet. "]

Once again thank you Tthree, this has been an eye opener!

[ohbehave]

Yes

[FerrisB]

This first experience may be a gift to you. I have certainly experienced what you described. This life is a roller coaster and can be mentally, emotionally and physically demanding. Like I tell my boys when golfing, you have to get over the last shot (be it good or bad) and focus on the shot you are now taking. If you can do this you stand a chance.

Keep Calm, Grind On

[Three]

A matchup is a specific hand v a specific dealer card. By using the plural and overall I was referring to all matchups in aggregate.

[KoolAid90]

Yes

Ok got it! Thanks mate.

A matchup is a specific hand v a specific dealer card. By using the plural and overall I was referring to all matchups in aggregate.

Understood, thanks Tthree!

This first experience may be a gift to you. I have certainly experienced what you described. This life is a roller coaster and can be mentally, emotionally and physically demanding. Like I tell my boys when golfing, you have to get over the last shot (be it good or bad) and focus on the shot you are now taking. If you can do this you stand a chance.

Keep Calm, Grind On

Hey FerrisB! Most definitely. By posting the story I learned a lot when this post shook my new blackjack world from top to bottom. It was certainly an expensive gift, but as such it may be the intangible lessons that I have gained in paying such amount.

I am glad to see that others can wholeheartedly relate a beginner loss, thanks FerrisB!

[21gunsalute]

KoolAid90, losing 7 out of 10 hands for a period of time is not that rare at all. In fact the best players in the world average losing about 6 hands out of 10 in the long run! Also in another thread I believe you referred to playing drunk and making plays such as standing on 13 v 10, etc., so...

[MikePotato]

Not in the same way as BJs and doubles. As a group splits are a small loser but lose less than not splitting. Splits are also less frequent so they don't impact your results as much.

I understand what you are saying "As a group..." However, can you specify those splits that are winners? Assuming DAS. Maybe splitting 9's against a dealers 4, 5, 6 especially with a high count. Thanks in advance.

[Three]

This should help:

https://wizardofodds.com/games/blackjack/appendix/1/

Remember a split value is about the difference in EV from the expectation for the way you play it without splitting and the expectation for splitting.

[stopgambling]

i think you meant to say the dealer are more likely to bust their stiffs . you win with counting because you are slightly more often to get a blackjack and the dealer bust more often on their stiffs . remember , about half of the edge comes from getting a bj in high count. the rest from more successful split/ doubles and insurance i believe . it is only 1-2% edge .

[stopgambling]

You can lose in 40k rounds of bj easily . i look to 80k round of bj to have a ( 95 % ? )certainty , it is 4 nzero , as my nzero is about 20k rounds

[DSchles]

You can lose in 40k rounds of bj easily . i look to 80k round of bj to have a ( 95 % ? )certainty , it is 4 nzero , as my nzero is about 20k rounds

You meant to say that 80K rounds are 2N0, as n0 is a square function.

Don