Expect MORE Positive Variance than NEG Variance?

[Mickey]

If you primarily play in true counts and wong out at NEG counts then there will be expected variance going both ways (up at a profit or down at a loss) but would it be a fair statement to say that you should EXPECT a higher likelihood of positive variance than negative variance if you're primarily playing in positive counts?

[muckz]

If you primarily play in true counts and wong out at NEG counts then there will be expected variance going both ways (up at a profit or down at a loss) but would it be a fair statement to say that you should EXPECT a higher likelihood of positive variance than negative variance if you're primarily playing in positive counts?

Variance is what defines the area under a normal distribution. It would be correct to say that you should experience a shorter period between short run and long run playing only positive counts (in essence shrinking the width of the normal distribution). Playing in positive does not increase the likelihood of you ending with a 2sd win instead of a 2sd loss.

[Pacman]

Dont forget, your big losses come at positive counts.
Longest winning streaks at lowest counts >.<

Pac

[Three]

The size of variance is proportional to the size of your bets. If you are making more large bets variance goes up. Your EV will also go up wonging but your ratio of variance to average bet could go up or down. Most people see the math as win/100 rounds and variance. Variance will be closely related to your top bet and its frequency. The higher frequency you appropriately make your top bet the higher your EV and your variance.As already pointed out your N0 affects how you feel the higher variance. Getting to the long run quicker smoothes out the runs of positive and negative variance as we tend to perceive things in terms of time. Every aspect of BJ is all about the bell curves of normal distribution.

When you wong the win rate bell curve becomes tighter around expectation but, unless you flat bet, each step in your ramp has a bell curve and a frequency of use compared to the whole of all the steps. These bell curves don't change but the frequencies do. You eliminate the worst in terms of win rate that were made the most frequent but at a very small bet causing an adverse affect on win rate but decreasing variance due to more small bets being made. The small bets aren't going to cause big swings. The shift is to more frequent use of all the higher win rate bell curves at each step in the positive EV bell curves. You will be bouncing from table to table so you will see more frequent in terms of time large bets. This will cause higher variance but since you make those large variance causing bets more frequently you get to the long run much quicker for that step in the set of bell curves for your ramp. This can cause both larger swings of shorter duration as you hit the long run quicker by getting more big bet hands played in the same amount of time.

To directly answer your question the odds of positive and negative variance is the same. The way it is felt by the counter is what changes. When you have a run of negative variance you lament for the days of making more smaller bets. When you have a run of positive variance you feel differently.

[Mickey]

Thank you!

[bigplayer]

IF you play a positive EV game remember breaking even is negative variance. Variance from the mean expectation goes 50% - 50% either way. It's just that at a +EV game you're starting with a positive number.