cvcx ?

[roliin]

On CVCX chapter Xit page the count column is almost all positive counts and only goes down to -1. Is there a way to analyze more negative counts if I'm not back counting?

Is 1/3 Kelly betting equivalent to .25% ROR? If full Kelly is 13.5% ROR then how come 1?3 Kelly isn't 4.5%

thx all

[Norm]

CVCX is basically designed as an optimal bet simulator. Negative counts have the same bet, so there is no need to display them. However, the sim page allows you to set the lowest number reported when you create your own sims.

Kelly is not linear. Few things are.

[Nikky_Flash]

kelly is an exponential function?

[bigplayer]

On CVCX chapter Xit page the count column is almost all positive counts and only goes down to -1. Is there a way to analyze more negative counts if I'm not back counting?

Is 1/3 Kelly betting equivalent to .25% ROR? If full Kelly is 13.5% ROR then how come 1?3 Kelly isn't 4.5%

thx all

Run your own simulation. It is useful for situations where you might wong-out at different negative counts.

[DSchles]

"Is 1/3 Kelly betting equivalent to .25% ROR?"

Yes, but see below.

"If full Kelly is 13.5% ROR then how come 1?/3 Kelly isn't 4.5%?"

First things first. Theoretically, full Kelly is 0% ROR. What we call full FIXED Kelly, where the initial bets aren't changed as the bankroll fluctuates, has 13.5% ROR.

As has been stated, ROR is an exponential function. We use the reciprocal of the fraction. So, for half Kelly, we raise 0.135 to the second power, and get 1.8% ROR. For 1/3 Kelly, we raise 0.135 to the third power and get 0.25%.

Don

[Nikky_Flash]

Using an exponential function / wouldn't half kelly betting then be about 4.4955 from the original ROR of 13.5, provided everything else is the same? sorry if I messed up the math ... just trying to get a grasp of the concept

[roliin]

"Is 1/3 Kelly betting equivalent to .25% ROR?"Yes, but see below. "If full Kelly is 13.5% ROR then how come 1?/3 Kelly isn't 4.5%?"First things first. Theoretically, full Kelly is 0% ROR. What we call full FIXED Kelly, where the initial bets aren't changed as the bankroll fluctuates, has 13.5% ROR.As has been stated, ROR is an exponential function. We use the reciprocal of the fraction. So, for half Kelly, we raise 0.135 to the second power, and get 1.8% ROR. For 1/3 Kelly, we raise 0.135 to the third power and get 0.25%.Don

So if one was playing 1/3 Kelly (.25%) does that mean he has only a 1 in 400 chance of tapping out if he doesn't re size his bets? This sounds super safe, no? This has been answered here before but I can't find it; what do most pros play 1/3 to 1/2 Kelly?Thx

[bigplayer]

So if one was playing 1/3 Kelly (.25%) does that mean he has only a 1 in 400 chance of tapping out if he doesn't re size his bets? This sounds super safe, no? This has been answered here before but I can't find it; what do most pros play 1/3 to 1/2 Kelly?Thx

Remember this assumes 100% reinvestment of all winnings. Things like living expenses and/or investor dividends change things immensely.

[bigplayer]

Using an exponential function / wouldn't half kelly betting then be about 4.4955 from the original ROR of 13.5, provided everything else is the same? sorry if I messed up the math ... just trying to get a grasp of the concept

.135 x .135 = .018225

Think about it this way, if you can bet $800 at a 1% advantage to a total $100,000 bankroll and that is Full Kelly, and you decide instead to bet $400 at a 1% advantage (half-Kelly) what you've got are essentially two Full Kelly $50,000 bankrolls (BR1 + BR2 = TBR = $100K). Since we know that the chance of busting out either BR1 or BR2 by itself is 13.5% then the chance of busting out both of them (TBR) must be 13.5% x 13.5%. If you play 1/3 Kelly to a $100K TBR then what you have are three $33,333 Full Kelly Bankrolls so the chance of busting out all three is 13.5% x 13.5% x 13.5% = 0.246%

[roliin]

.135 x .135 = .018225Think about it this way, if you can bet $800 at a 1% advantage to a total $100,000 bankroll and that is Full Kelly, and you decide instead to bet $400 at a 1% advantage (half-Kelly) what you've got are essentially two Full Kelly $50,000 bankrolls (BR1 + BR2 = TBR = $100K). Since we know that the chance of busting out either BR1 or BR2 by itself is 13.5% then the chance of busting out both of them (TBR) must be 13.5% x 13.5%. If you play 1/3 Kelly to a $100K TBR then what you have are three $33,333 Full Kelly Bankrolls so the chance of busting out all three is 13.5% x 13.5% x 13.5% = 0.246%

bigplayer,Is that typical? If you were to break up say a 10k bankroll, wouldn't your hourly earnings be too shitty to be worthwhile?regards

[DSchles]

He's trying to explain the math. He isn't suggesting that you break up your bankroll into pieces.

Don

[roliin]

He's trying to explain the math. He isn't suggesting that you break up your bankroll into pieces.Don

Got it. Is 1/3 typical? I'm asking because 1/3 of a 10k bankroll gives a pretty lame hourly return.

[Skull]

Think about it this way, if you can bet $800 at a 1% advantage to a total $100,000 bankroll and that is Full Kelly

In order to come up with the $800 bet, you are using the approximate formula of f=edge/variance?
So you are assuming the standard deviation of the game as being around 1.12 for this example and then f = 0.01 / (1.12)^2 yielding approximately f = 0.8% ??
Just trying to make sure I understand the math...

Thanks for teaching!!