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Thread: Blackjack optimal depth-based betting

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Blackjack optimal depth-based betting

    A post on another site, and several posts in the past, have asked about optimizing betting for Color of Blackjack. COB involves different betting ramps at different depths using an unbalanced count to obtain much of the benefit of true counting without true counting. There is a gain. But, how do you create an optimal betting ramp when the optimal betting calculators calculate according to fixed counts? After a discussion with Daniel Dravot, I came up with a methodology that calculated optimal bets based on COB temperatures instead of on counts, and implemented it in CVCX. The small button that brings up this feature has probably only been seen by a few and the concept is a bit difficult to explain. At least, I’ve had difficulty. I thought I’d place the relevant instructions here where more might see them. Any help in making this more clear would be appreciated.

    Optimal Depth-Based Betting

    It is well-documented that unbalanced strategies like KO tend to over-bet late in the shoe and miss betting opportunities early in the shoe. While overall results of unbalanced strategies are good, they can be better. Daniel Dravot’s new book, The Color of Blackjack, details the problem and provides a solution involving the use of different betting ramps at different depths. There have also been posts on this subject on various Blackjack forums. Basically, the idea is to raise your bets at lower counts early in the shoe and delay the increase in bets near the end of the shoe. This captures much of the power of true counting without the extra work. And true-counting an unbalanced strategy is not easy.

    A problem with this approach is the development of optimal betting ramps. Optimal betting calculators, like that in CVCX, tell you what to bet at each count. But with depth-based betting, the counts where you raise your bets change according to depth. The CVCX Depth-Based Betting feature solves this problem providing an extra boost in results.

    To set up a sim for depth-based betting, click the Depth-Bets button on the Sim Page. You will see the following screen:



    Here we define where we wish to increase our bets. Not what the bets are —just when we will increase. In the sample table, we see counts of -12 through +4. We see the first deck in the shoe in the bottom row, second deck in the shoe above that, etc. Betting levels are set to 0 through 6. That is we have seven betting levels with 0 as the minimum bet. We see that in the first deck, we increase our bet at -11, increase again at -7, etc. In the second deck, we wait until a count of -8 to increase our bet. Should we ever see a round start in the sixth deck, we would wait until a count of +2. This sample table is similar to the table in The Color of Blackjack, but slightly simpler. You can set the table up according to your own desires. (CVData users can examine results in sections of the shoe to fine-tune this table. But the extra gain from fine-tuning is minimal.)

    You must fill in separate tables for each number of decks for which you will run sims. Click on Enable Depth Betting to activate the tables. Set up the rest of the sim settings and run the sims.

    Results

    Normally CVCX will display the optimal bets for each count. But in this case, it will display the optimal bets for each betting level. Below is a sample output of just the betting table on the Viewer screen:

    Note that we do not have counts in the left column, but betting levels indicated by B0 through B6. For B1, we see 25 in the Chips column. So, we bet $25 wherever we see a 1 in the previous table. That is, we bet $25 at a count of -11 in the first deck, -8 in the second deck, etc.
    Once you have run the sims, all CVCX Viewer functions will work with this feature. You can change the spread, penetration, bankroll, risk, etc and the optimal bets will be instantly recalculated and all results and widgets will be updated. You can also manually fine-tune the betting levels using the Custom Bets column at the right, and all results will be recalculated .

    Use the Count Range spinners at the top to set the range of counts for each number of decks and use Load and Save if you wish to keep a library of different tables.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Does this feature exist in the demo?

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Yes, but the numbers are wrong. The demo is a demo. It demos functionality -- not correct results.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Senior Member Nikky_Flash's Avatar
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    Thanks Norm, and the index play settings we leave the same anything special for that? and has anyone ever run these in Linux, via Wine successfully ?
    “It seemed to me ... that any civilization that had so far lost its head as to need to include a set of detailed instructions for use in a package of toothpicks, was no longer a civilization in which I could live and stay sane.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Yes, but the numbers are wrong. The demo is a demo. It demos functionality -- not correct results.
    Yes, I know Norm thanks. I will buy both CVCX and CVData in a few days, I just need the month to end
    The problem was that I couldn't find the depth-betting feature, but I just did thank you

    This is a fantastic feature! Let me ask you a (possibly stupid) question:
    I am very interested in the "opposition betting" technique, as explained in Snyder's "Blackbelt in BJ" page 199-208. Do you think this feature can be used to simulate it in conjunction to depth-based betting? Or is CVData more indicated for opposition betting and then we should combine it with CVCX depth-betting results somehow? Or there is just no way to simulate opposition betting with the current tools?

    Best!

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    I believe they run under Wine, but don't know for certain.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Skull21 View Post
    This is a fantastic feature! Let me ask you a (possibly stupid) question:
    I am very interested in the "opposition betting" technique, as explained in Snyder's "Blackbelt in BJ" page 199-208. Do you think this feature can be used to simulate it in conjunction to depth-based betting?
    You could simulate opposition betting combined with depth-based betting with CVData. But, there is no way to "optimize" it, other than trial and error. I put the scare quotes around optimize as opposition betting is non-optimal by definition.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    You could simulate opposition betting combined with depth-based betting with CVData.
    Thanks Norm! Great to know that!

    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    But, there is no way to "optimize" it, other than trial and error. I put the scare quotes around optimize as opposition betting is non-optimal by definition.
    Well, I think I read something about the subjective difference between "optimizing" and "maximizing" in Andersen's Burning the Tables: I might not be maximizing my profits, but as far as longevity is concerned, I might be able to create an "optimal" cover strategy with opposition betting. Standard deviation will probably be huge, but I hope I could make it bearable.

    CVData and CVCX do all the hard work for us, I guess I can put some time with trials... and errors

    Best of luck!

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    Senior Member Nikky_Flash's Avatar
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    Can't find a "bet-depths" button anywhere
    “It seemed to me ... that any civilization that had so far lost its head as to need to include a set of detailed instructions for use in a package of toothpicks, was no longer a civilization in which I could live and stay sane.

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Nikky_Flash View Post
    Can't find a "bet-depths" button anywhere
    Which software, which version, what are you trying to do?
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Senior Member Nikky_Flash's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    Which software, which version, what are you trying to do?
    hi Norm,
    It's a demo version- in the casino verite exe it s ays CV5.6 - Will that have the TKO feature still? Even though it's a "Demo" version, trying to see if I can even set up the sim for TKO the way I want to first ---(i know the results are random and stuff but I want to see if I can set it up for things i want to do, for example: I need to Simm with about three-times the index plays than C.O.B . , like doubling soft hands vs. Dealer 4 in "HOT decks", and with slightly different betting than in the book, perhaps max betting a little later than 2% adv. and stuff like that...see if I can even get it up and running the right way before I purchase a full version, (still red-chipping) ...
    “It seemed to me ... that any civilization that had so far lost its head as to need to include a set of detailed instructions for use in a package of toothpicks, was no longer a civilization in which I could live and stay sane.

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Yes, TKO is there. To set up CVData for COB, you would need to create separate betting strategies for cold, warm, hot and tie them together with a Multi-Betting Strategy.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Senior Member Nikky_Flash's Avatar
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    like another part of simms i don't fully get is ;when I get to the part of the SIM-setup that says "Attach a strategy" ... I select Color of Blackjack ... but it shows "full indexes" as checked and (-99 to +99 and Dravot uses no negatives ;so not sure what to do here?)... I use alot more than in the book Color of Blackjack ... not sure how to customize it
    “It seemed to me ... that any civilization that had so far lost its head as to need to include a set of detailed instructions for use in a package of toothpicks, was no longer a civilization in which I could live and stay sane.

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