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Thread: Only adjust bets on whole true counts?

  1. #1
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    Only adjust bets on whole true counts?

    Hello. My question for y'all today is:

    Should one adjust their bet in between true counts?

    My true count in this scenario was 2.8
    Normally I would bet just 2 units on a 2TC and 4 units on a 3TC. Instead I just chose to bet 3 units.
    Should have I just stuck with 2 units? Thanks

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    Quote Originally Posted by code red View Post
    Hello. My question for y'all today is:

    Should one adjust their bet in between true counts?

    My true count in this scenario was 2.8
    Normally I would bet just 2 units on a 2TC and 4 units on a 3TC. Instead I just chose to bet 3 units.
    Should have I just stuck with 2 units? Thanks
    In cvcx you can see half true counts for balanced strategies.

    Depending on the TC method you used ex, flooring/truncating/round. It would be wrong to say that if you have an optimal bet spread for whole point true counts that you can assume a tc of =>2.5 <3 would always warrant a 3 unit bet. Especially if flooring as your 2tc bet is actually the range of =>2 and <3. I'm sure you didn't do anything harmful but, your betting is no longer optimal.
    Last edited by muckz; 03-03-2014 at 12:03 PM.

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by code red View Post
    My true count in this scenario was 2.8
    Normally I would bet just 2 units on a 2TC and 4 units on a 3TC. Instead I just chose to bet 3 units.
    Should have I just stuck with 2 units? Thanks
    Normally I would decide this by what my last bet was. If it were 4 units or more bet 4 units but if it were 2 units or less bet 2 units. The purpose of this is to not be changing your bet too far or as often which helps make it harder for the pit to pick you off. I assume you are flooring your TC estimates. I wouldn't do this for much of a smaller fractional TC. As for simply trying to bet between your ramp bets, you are best off from a cover standpoint with fewer number of bet sizes in your ramp. Again this makes the number of times you change your bet fewer making detection harder. I will let others comment on the mathematical affect of doing what you are talking about. I assume that is the main thrust of your question.
    Last edited by Three; 03-03-2014 at 12:14 PM.

  4. #4
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    I just feel like its wrong not to act on a true count so close to the next betting stage. I appreciate the responses thus far.

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    Your ramp is designed with betting bins. Each bin is part of the same TC. TC 2 goes from 2.0 to 2.99999. At 2.8 you are not that close to the next bin. The middle of the bin goes from 2.25 to 2.75. The average advantage for the bin is known but the distributions of individual situation advantages is a bell curve. That particular count of TC +2.8 may be on the low end of that advantage bell curve for the TC +2 bin due to the particular deck composition. You can't assume it is on the high side of the bell curve for the bin just because it is barely above the middle group for the fractional TC. You wouldn't be making a terrible assumption but you would be making an assumption that you are not supposed to be making with your optimal ramp. If you did this routinely your average advantage in bin TC +2 would go down as well as the average advantage in the TC +3 bin. Obviously that would have adverse affect on your profits.
    Last edited by Three; 03-03-2014 at 12:45 PM.

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    If I was betting two units on the previous hand and won the hand, or if I won the last two hands, I might add a chip/unit to my stack, since I think it would be a typical ploppy move. It also means less of a jump to 4 units should the TC continue to rise, I agree that it gives the pit an additional data point point that can expose you, so it's kind of a situational decision.

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    I tend to be conservative with betting, preferring not to jump my bet until it hits the proper number because:

    1) I use a level 1 count and it counts a 2 the same as a 5, though the betting effects of removal for 2s and 5s differ greatly.

    2) Unless your deck estimation is exact, the estimate of advantage will not be exact either, with any count.

    If you overbet your advantage the Standard Deviation will increase and ROR will be higher. This is not healthy for your bankroll.

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    code red,
    The answer might be in how well you're bankrolled. I'd say stay at two units with a marginal BR and go to 3 if your BR is "healthy".

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    Technically, I agree with what T3 said, and I like the way he explained it with the 'bin' terminology. I may just use that if/when training players in the future, T3.

    But, it is not the way I would actually do it myself. TC +2.8 is close enough that I probably would bet my TC +3 wager. Let me tell you why. I use different spreads for different games and tolerance levels, but one of my more common spreads would have me wagering $150 @ TC +2, $300 @ TC +3 and max bet of $400 @ TC +4 and above.

    What is at issue is that if I remain at $150 at that TC 2.8, it is very possible the count could jump right through the "TC +3 bin", up to my max bet on the next round, especially late in the shoe or if it is a DD game where the counts jumps around. This would have me jumping from $150 to $400, which I prefer not to do. So @ TC 2.8, I would probably go ahead and wager my TC +3 wager of $300, or at very least $250 just to smooth out the ramp, and avoid the possibility of a big jump on the next round. It's a bit of looking past this current wager and trying to prepare for what may come next.

    Technically it is over betting, but I am under betting my bankroll anyway, setting my betting level by tolerance level rather than my bankroll, so it really isn't an issue for me. Those that have set a betting schedule that is more optimal and closer to Kelly, I would recommend that you stick to your schedule. Hopefully, you have set your betting schedule fairly optimally, so if you start deviating, you are getting away from where you want to be.

    Last edited by KJ; 03-03-2014 at 04:01 PM.

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    I've only tried this at my home setup but I just wanted to know before I hit the casino again. Just looking for something else to add to my play since I'm getting a little bored. It seemed my buy-in depleted a lot faster doing that short term. I'll just stick with the books, betting solely on the base TC.

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    Quote Originally Posted by code red View Post
    Just looking for something else to add to my play since I'm getting a little bored.


    No offense, code red, but this line smacks of a gambling mentality rather than an AP mentality. Playing with an advantage through card counting IS boring. It's all about patience and discipline. If you are going to deviate from something, you should have a reason and have weighed the risk vs reward. Just to increase your wager for the sake of 'boredom', is a mistake, and worse, it indicates the wrong thought process.

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    Quote Originally Posted by KJ View Post


    No offense, code red, but this line smacks of a gambling mentality rather than an AP mentality. Playing with an advantage through card counting IS boring. It's all about patience and discipline. If you are going to deviate from something, you should have a reason and have weighed the risk vs reward. Just to increase your wager for the sake of 'boredom', is a mistake, and worse, it indicates the wrong thought process.
    I hear what you're saying. That's why I had to come on here today to make sure it was going to affect my bankroll in a real environment. I haven't hit the casino quite awhile to apply my tactics. It's a heck of a lot more enjoyable when I'm not dealing an endless shoe :]
    Last edited by code red; 03-03-2014 at 04:38 PM.

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    man, some really thorough responses. i just round to the nearest 1/2 tc. at 2.8, i just bet 3 units. at 2.7, i bet 2.5 units. i'm no math whiz, and don't usually end up with tc's quite this precise, but i don't think this is a bad way to go.
    big dog in charge

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