See the top rated post in this thread. Click here

Page 6 of 7 FirstFirst ... 4567 LastLast
Results 66 to 78 of 83

Thread: Illustrious 18 Plays Below and Above Index

  1. #66
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    3rd rock from Sol, Milky Way Galaxy
    Posts
    14,158


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I am ignoring any further posts by an obvious troll except one that answer why I can't make an accurate decision on 15v3 with 250 cards left in a shoe.

  2. #67


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Seriously T3, you really need to spend some time on CV Data. But to answer your question. The TC index on 15 vs 3 is high which means the hit as opposed to stand is extremely rare. The win percentage is .0382% if you always stand. The win percentage if you play the index is .0383%. Can you do the math from here? In other words...it's a threshold. Don S provides ADVANTAGES. You and Flash wallow in a world of thresholds making profound proclamations that there is some sort of huge profit being missed.

    First question is why are you even still playing a shoe at a disadvantage TC for 15 vs 3 in a shoe? What, you never have to pee? They only have one table in the city of brotherly of love? Oh, that's right, you are "fooling" the pit. lol Nonetheless, it's still very common that even though you improve your hand, you still lose the hand. For instance, you have 15 and draw a 5. Bam you have 20. Excellent. Dealer has a 3 up (named after you). Flips over a 10 and draws an 8. Well, that sucks. Especially, since Hi Opt II doesn't account for the the 89s. You hit. YOU LOSE. You stand. YOU LOSE. Flip the 8 and 5 around. YOU LOSE.

    Now, you are telling me you can consistently predict the outcome of this hand with 250 card remaining based on the information at you fingertips and in your mind? What you have a crystal ball in your shorts? Please...just yes or no. I'm just saying a good healthy piss is the more prudent move BY FAR.

    At least Tarzan has a better idea of the deck composition. Sorry...it still doesn't mean he can predict the next card.
    Don, don't bother, it will just aggravate you. This just showed up in my morning mail. A natural for the thread and the upcoming dining arrangements.

    https://youtu.be/9WoM2bHfr48

  3. #68
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    3rd rock from Sol, Milky Way Galaxy
    Posts
    14,158


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Seriously T3, you really need to spend some time on CV Data. But to answer your question. The TC index on 15 vs 3 is high which means the hit as opposed to stand is extremely rare. The win percentage is .0382% if you always stand. The win percentage if you play the index is .0383%. Can you do the math from here? In other words...it's a threshold. Don S provides ADVANTAGES. You and Flash wallow in a world of thresholds making profound proclamations that there is some sort of huge profit being missed.
    You didn't answer the question. you answered what you changed the question to. read the question and try again.
    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    except one that answer why I can't make an accurate decision on 15v3 with 250 cards left in a shoe.
    Now why do you say I can't make an accurate decision with 200 cards left to be played.
    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    First question is why are you even still playing a shoe at a disadvantage TC for 15 vs 3 in a shoe?
    Just a few that are obvious to anyone with experience.
    1) A very negative playing count and a huge surplus of aces has me betting big into a poor playing count.
    2) Deep pen, 1/2 deck remaining, had me make a big bet at a plus playing count but between the time I made my bet and my playing decision 10 face cards came out moving the playing count TC by -40 with any level 2 playing count from TC +10 to TC -30.
    3) Playing the only DD table heads up with the dealer and it is near the shuffle but they won't shuffle up at an empty table. I either give up the heads up DD situation or play out the shoe.
    4) Playing an off the top advantage promo so I am playing all at a decent edge.
    5) Error prone dealer still gives me an edge at a really bad count.
    6) Targeting a side bet that has a huge edge at that count.

    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Oh, that's right, you are "fooling" the pit. lol
    Do you read anything I write. I have written ad nauseum that the art is not to fool them but rather to make them comfortable letting you play even though they know you are probably counting.
    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    Nonetheless, it's still very common that even though you improve your hand, you still lose the hand. For instance, you have 15 and draw a 5. Bam you have 20. Excellent. Dealer has a 3 up (named after you). Flips over a 10 and draws an 8. Well, that sucks. Especially, since Hi Opt II doesn't account for the the 89s. You hit. YOU LOSE. You stand. YOU LOSE. Flip the 8 and 5 around. YOU LOSE.
    That is part of the game. You aren't trying to guess what the cards will do, you are trying to make the decision that will make you the most in the long run. Whether you win the bet that time is immaterial.
    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    ow, you are telling me you can consistently predict the outcome of this hand with 250 cards remaining based on the information at you fingertips and in your mind?
    Why would you think I would say that. I am saying I can make a decision that in the long run will increase my EV over the other decision, if made every time the same count arises. Sometimes I wonder if you even understand why you do things.
    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    At least Tarzan has a better idea of the deck composition. Sorry...it still doesn't mean he can predict the next card.
    I don't know where you got the idea you can predict the next card. It certainly wasn't from me. That is ploppy thinking. I didn't pick this 15v3 thing. You did in your deleted post. I am still waiting for why you think I can't make an accurate decision with 200 cards left.

    You are so easy.
    Last edited by Three; 10-24-2017 at 04:16 AM.

  4. #69


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I ùsed to defend against social anarchists, misfits and racial bigots. In retrospect, only worth the aggravation if socially concious individuals rise to a sense of duty, as my father during the big one.

    That aside, let's try hockey truisms.

    3, 5 minute major for spearing
    Moses, 5 minute major for fighting.

    Now guys, eat some of those "Haynes" beans for dinner, and let out some of that gas.

  5. #70
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    3rd rock from Sol, Milky Way Galaxy
    Posts
    14,158


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    What is wrong with you? Evidently, I've given you far too much credit for being smarter than even I thought you were. You are making BJarg appear spot on.
    No. I commented that your statement that you can't make an accurate decision on any hand, but you specifically used 15v3 as an example, without very few cards left was challenged. You delete your post and then act like the question was the value of 15v3 despite enough being quoted of your post to prove otherwise. I repeatedly don't take the bait to switch the topic. I still never took the bait but answered why you would still be playing at that count. There are many more reasons but usually you are not playing at that count. Then you answer your own question and act like I even once said it was a valuable play. You act like I even once looked at your bait when I never did. You have to wait for a fish to take the bait to hook it. You just set the hook when nothing bit the bait. Go ahead a show that picture of you with nothing on your hook. It is making me laugh. ROTFL
    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    No more conversation with "three" idiots.
    The first smart thing you have said. I am good with that.

  6. #71


    0 out of 1 members found this post helpful. Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    I have learned a lot from this forum. Many of the people here have made me a better player. For the love of God, though, why does every informative post turn into a dick swinging contest?

    To the OP, if you have questions about indices, PM me. I'll help you out. It will be simpler for everyone that way.

  7. #72
    Senior Member Bubbles's Avatar
    Join Date
    Sep 2015
    Location
    South West
    Posts
    957


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Someone has to have the best dick. The problem is in defining what is best. One guy might shout, "Mine is huge, look at how wide it is!" Another might say, "Mine is huge, look at how long it is!" They may both have nice dicks, and perhaps the best by the standards they are using, but they are using different standards and so they cannot come to an agreement. They also cannot see past their dicks to notice the other guy is using measurements in a different way. I say y'all have nice dicks--but damn, look at how small the casino's are! Now there's where the competition should be.

    (Norm, am I being too inappropriate? I'm attempting to metaphorically get my opinion across in my somewhat convoluted manner.)

  8. #73
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    3rd rock from Sol, Milky Way Galaxy
    Posts
    14,158


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    T3. If your truly are ignorant of the question, I will answer in Moses Column Charts and Explanation thread. Personally, I think you are just trying to be a pain in the ass. 15 vs 3 was just an example. Not the Gospel. It could be said for several like 15v2, 16vs2, 14vs5. Crap, you don't expect me to list every damn one of them. Do you?

    The answer is there is no answer. Only a threshold that may or may not produce a profit over the course of most players lifetime.
    Damn Moses. The question had nothing to do with the value of the plays. It was about whether they could be made accurately with more than a half deck of cards left. You are the only one that has talked about the value of the play and that didn't start until you deleted the post that started the entire conversation in order to change the discussion because obviously you know you were wrong but you just can't admit it. Any count that makes sense to use has a high correlation to the playing EoR's of the ranks for 15v3. Neutral cards are fairly minor cards. Even the 8 is a minor card for the play. So any count would make an accurate decision no matter how many cards are left.

    Again the only thing I have challenged you on or discussed in this thread is why you think you can't make accurate decisions with more than a deck of unseen cards. You never discussed the issue but rather set up a straw man of the value of the play. I guess deleting your post was your way of admitting you were wrong. But then why put the tread through so many stupid posts (from both of us) if you deleted it because you had posted too many posts in this thread already? Please don't respond unless you are finally going to answer the initial question that started this. Remember you have posted too many posts in this thread already. LoL

  9. #74
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    3rd rock from Sol, Milky Way Galaxy
    Posts
    14,158


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    So stop bringing up your special unknown system as you did in items 1 thru 6 in post 79.
    Quote Originally Posted by Three View Post
    Just a few that are obvious to anyone with experience.
    1) A very negative playing count and a huge surplus of aces has me betting big into a poor playing count.
    2) Deep pen, 1/2 deck remaining, had me make a big bet at a plus playing count but between the time I made my bet and my playing decision 10 face cards came out moving the playing count TC by -40 with any level 2 playing count from TC +10 to TC -30.
    3) Playing the only DD table heads up with the dealer and it is near the shuffle but they won't shuffle up at an empty table. I either give up the heads up DD situation or play out the shoe.
    4) Playing an off the top advantage promo so I am playing all at a decent edge.
    5) Error prone dealer still gives me an edge at a really bad count.
    6) Targeting a side bet that has a huge edge at that count.
    Well I guess you deleted another 8 posts because it is now post number 71. Or maybe you just misread the post number. This covers any count. I didn't even have my count in mind when I wrote it. The only difference between counts is in #1. Both an ace neutral and ace reckoned count would have big bets out but only the ace neutral would know it is a hit.

  10. #75
    Senior Member
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    3rd rock from Sol, Milky Way Galaxy
    Posts
    14,158


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by moses View Post
    I'm able to appreciate the genuis and effort that Don S. put into the ill 18. The reason casinos reduced pen and increased number of decks is because of guys constantly finding a way to win. Consequently, the strategies have been force to change over the decades. Simply put, it's highly unlikely you will find situations you can counter today as one enjoyed in the 80s.

    So let's use an example 15vs3. It's just pulled out of thin air. No other point or purpose. In the past, suppose a dealer goes 40 cards deep. You are holding 15 vs 3. The 12 remaining cards are 6 2-4s and 6 5-7s. Only the 7 can beat you and keep you from improving your position. At 14vs3, it's a free shot.

    At 26 cards, it's unlikey the deck will be exhausted of 10s and 89s. In best case scenario, your final decision for a single deck straight up will come on the 33rd card. So we have to be thinkers, movers, and shakers.

    Hitting 15 vs 3 decision will occur about once in every 10k hands. The minimimum scenarios is with a deck composition of 60% or (14) tens-89s played and 40% or (9) 2-7s played. This scenario is based on a 48 card because the Ace is not considered. See chart Post #3.

    It doesn't mean you will win. In fact, most times you will still lose. It just means you took the risk of hitting to improve your chance of winning.

    In addition, you MUST know your dealer and surroundings. For instance, I was once playing a dealer who was a helluva nice guy. We were talking basketball which seemed to both our favorite subjects. It was a fair game. No complaints. I hit a 16 vs 2 and pulled a 5. Hit flipped over a 10 and hit two 4s. Yippee, I win right? Well, not exactly. He stopped smiling and talking started shuffling every 4 rounds in a straight up game. To this day, and it's been 5 years, he still looks the other way when our paths cross.

    So it's vital you KNOW your dealers can take a hittin and keep on dealin as before. Therefore, it might be once every 15k hands or every 3 months that I hit a 15vs3. When I do, I act as though it was a mistake and it's usually the last hand of the deck. Hopefully, the dealer is shuffling and not thinking WTF just happened. IT's not a big deal and has little or no effect on my bottom line because it's only going to be a $25 bet. But it is sort of a thrill to turn a losing hand into a win. Sometimes a subliminal message and/or a smart cooperating dealer will shuffle and let me out of that last hand. Thus the percentages of frequency reduce even more. Hence, game of people played with cards!

    Does this answer your question T3? I prefer to delete the post.

    Instead of BC, PE, IC game. This is a deck composition and insurance game in terms of counting. You take what they give you and that is enough...Thanks to Norm or Don S.
    LoL. No. If anything, it shows the reverse of what you said. It actually says nothing about the inaccuracy of making the decision with more than one deck left. It does say making an accurate decision in Reno SD is foolish but in games with more cards to start you can usually hit this hand and nobody bats an eye.

    Again the question is: why did you say you can't make an accurate decision on 15v3 with more than 1 deck unseen? Just say you can because everyone else already knows you can. You made a stupid statement and got called out on it. Just man up instead of acting like a child. If you had acted like a man to start with, all these posts you say you are trying to avoid causing you to delete your post wouldn't be necessary. I get called out when I write something that is wrong. I hope I handled it better than you. At least I defend my position if I still think I am right. In a ridiculous amount of posting you still haven't even addressed what you said.

  11. #76


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Fenix View Post
    Someone has to have the best dick. The problem is in defining what is best. One guy might shout, "Mine is huge, look at how wide it is!" Another might say, "Mine is huge, look at how long it is!" They may both have nice dicks, and perhaps the best by the standards they are using, but they are using different standards and so they cannot come to an agreement. They also cannot see past their dicks to notice the other guy is using measurements in a different way. I say y'all have nice dicks--but damn, look at how small the casino's are! Now there's where the competition should be.

    (Norm, am I being too inappropriate? I'm attempting to metaphorically get my opinion across in my somewhat convoluted manner.)
    I recall one young lady commenting on my short fingers. But, but, but, I said - look how thick my wrists are
    No problem with your analogy - actually, quite amusing.

  12. #77


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Quote Originally Posted by Fenix View Post
    Someone has to have the best dick. The problem is in defining what is best. One guy might shout, "Mine is huge, look at how wide it is!" Another might say, "Mine is huge, look at how long it is!" They may both have nice dicks, and perhaps the best by the standards they are using, but they are using different standards and so they cannot come to an agreement. They also cannot see past their dicks to notice the other guy is using measurements in a different way. I say y'all have nice dicks--but damn, look at how small the casino's are! Now there's where the competition should be.
    The lady speaks.

  13. #78
    Senior Member Tarzan's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    Atlantic City
    Posts
    1,013


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No

Page 6 of 7 FirstFirst ... 4567 LastLast

Similar Threads

  1. Replies: 2
    Last Post: 06-18-2008, 08:38 AM
  2. Replies: 5
    Last Post: 04-26-2004, 05:37 PM

Tags for this Thread

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.