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Thread: Is there any significance to the 7's in REKO or strategy?

  1. #1
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    Is there any significance to the 7's in REKO or strategy?

    Is there any significance to the REKO strategy if all the 7's have been played out or used up in a SD or DD BJ game within the first 30% of the cards? What about if only half of the 7's have been played in a DD game? How about if little to no 7's have been played in SD or DD?

    How about it if more than half or all of the 7's and a good deal of 2's and 3's have been played out in a SD or DD game (within 35% from start) to where they compose a very high count for the players, could this make a situation where a high count could present a lot of volatility (high negative variance in a positive count) in knowing that there are more 4's, 5's, and 6's in the remaining deck or decks with high card values? Potentially more 8's and 9's and 10's... getting paired up with 4's, 5's, and 6's will create stiff hand totals during a high count.

    Are the 7's what constitute a negative IRC value in REKO and KO?
    Last edited by Blitzkrieg; 02-21-2014 at 10:42 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Blitzkrieg View Post
    Is there any significance to the REKO strategy if all the 7's have been played out or used up in a SD or DD BJ game within the first 30% of the cards? What about if only half of the 7's have been played in a DD game? How about if little to no 7's have been played in SD or DD?

    How about it if more than half or all of the 7's and a good deal of 2's and 3's have been played out in a SD or DD game (within 35% from start) to where they compose a very high count for the players, could this make a situation where a high count could present a lot of volatility (high negative variance in a positive count) in knowing that there are more 4's, 5's, and 6's in the remaining deck or decks with high card values? Potentially more 8's and 9's and 10's... getting paired up with 4's, 5's, and 6's will create stiff hand totals during a high count.

    Are the 7's what constitute a negative IRC value in REKO and KO?
    Removal of any card will change expected outcome. This is a problem that card tags try so solve. Yes, 2's and 7's have a bit less value when removed from the deck compared to 3-6. I can't answer the specifics of your question. Remember that at a TC of 4(pivot) with REKO/KO there is an equal number of 10/A's and 2-7's left in the deck.
    Compared to hi/lo the 7's do make it a negative IRC because it is an unbalance count meaning there are more lower cards than high cards counted. The IRC can be changed to whatever number you want it to be. Just remember the TC 4(pivot) is 4*(decks) points above the IRC.
    Last edited by muckz; 02-21-2014 at 11:14 PM.

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    Quote Originally Posted by muckz View Post
    Remember that at a TC of 4(pivot) with REKO/KO there is an equal number of 10/A's and 2-7's left in the deck.
    Compared to hi/lo the 7's do make it a negative IRC because it is an unbalance count meaning there are more lower cards than high cards counted. The IRC can be changed to whatever number you want it to be. Just remember the TC 4(pivot) is 4*(decks) points above the IRC.
    I did not know that there was a pivot at TC of 4 in the REKO/KO strategies but I understand what you are talking about and it will know doubt help my game out with my next visit to the casino, I may have overlooked that, so anything over 4 means there are that many more face cards in the deck. Nice.

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    Quote Originally Posted by muckz View Post
    Removal of any card will change expected outcome. This is a problem that card tags try so solve. Yes, 2's and 7's have a bit less value when removed from the deck compared to 3-6. I can't answer the specifics of your question.
    I see 7's, 2's, and 3's being played early and counted in a card counters count as being negative in a way and this is why. If these cards are mostly what compose a high count during a round it reduces doubling chances on the 7-4, 4-7 combination, it reduces the 8-3, 3-8 combination, and it could reduce chances of doubling on 2-9, 9-2. 3 chances for doubling opportunities that are reduced. That's what happens when you stay up late and when BJ is the only thing on your mind.

    On the flip side if more 4's, 5's, and 6's are in the deck that possibly increases the likelihood of the 5-6, 6-5 for a doubling opportunity.
    Last edited by Blitzkrieg; 02-22-2014 at 01:54 AM.

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    I may just be, it would probably be better to not make things harder than they have to be and work on areas of my game where I need the work. I'm ready to get back on the tables.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Blitzkrieg View Post
    How about it if more than half or all of the 7's and a good deal of 2's and 3's have been played out in a SD or DD game (within 35% from start) to where they compose a very high count for the players, could this make a situation where a high count could present a lot of volatility (high negative variance in a positive count) in knowing that there are more 4's, 5's, and 6's in the remaining deck or decks with high card values? Potentially more 8's and 9's and 10's... getting paired up with 4's, 5's, and 6's will create stiff hand totals during a high count.

    Are the 7's what constitute a negative IRC value in REKO and KO?
    Your count weights the cards according to tags for betting. In H17 BJ the EORs for the cards 2-A for betting are as follows:
    +.42, +.51, +.69, +.84, +.49, +.24, -.04, -.25, -.60, -.52

    As you can see the removal of different cards affect your advantage differently. A level 1 count assumes the low cards are in balance when determining your advantage by TC. In other words about the same of each card is removed. As you can see your advantage will be higher than the counts approximation when more 4's and 5's are removed than other low cards causing you to under bet your advantage. When more 2's, 3's and 7's are removed than 4's and 5's from the low card group you will be over betting your advantage. The distribution of these advantage distributions around the true count will form a bell curve. A wider bell curve affects all the BJ stats in a negative way. Having more 4's, 5's and 6's in the deck really hurt your chances as these cards make the dealer stiff hands. The 5 is the worst. The flip side is the dealer getting a 5 or 6 or even 4 up in a high count leads to lots of double and split opportunities that also tend to have better outcomes which favor the player. The 3 up card for the dealer is tricky because the 8 is always a neutral card and is the key card for the dealer. That lends to weak indices and risk averse indices.

    This brings up the other part of counting, index plays. Each hand match up has its own match up EORs for all the cards. By being familiar with these for each index play you can tweak the indices in pitch games if you really remember what ranks are completely depleted. When this occurs the other cards EOR's change as card interactions define these numbers. If a card is no longer available that effect is felt by certain cards with key interactions. For example if the dealer has a 3 up and all the 8's are in the discard tray your deviation would be correct at a lower TC for most match ups but some aren't affected or even or are even affected the opposite way. The advantage or disadvantage gained fro an index play at the TC index is also a bell curve. Again the wider the bell curve the worse it is.

    Unlike with advantage index plays' variability have a higher frequency of occurrence on the TC 0 side of the bell curve with the bell curve. This skewing affect has its highest impact at small positive and negative indices as determined by another bell curve for TC frequencies. Employing a positive index systematically slightly early is more costly than the same amount late due to the TC frequency bell curve. The opposite is true for negative indices as the TC frequency decreases greatly with each increment away from TC 0.

    All these bell curves and their interactions and widths end up defining the sim results you see. The tighter the betting and playing bell curves are the better your results will be. Knowing that certain cards in the level 1 group are completely or more depleted than the norm in the group will tell you which side of the bell curve your advantage estimate or playing decision is on. In close calls that can be useful information that may have you increase or decrease your bet to the adjacent compartment. More than a basic understanding is recommended for tweaking playing decisions. Familiarity with the EOR's for the hand match up is a start but familiarity with side count adjustments is a good idea before doing any thing but tweaks to marginal plays. Generally the rule is don't deviate unless you are absolutely certain the index has been exceeded.

    Of course you are talking about an unbalanced system so I am not sure how useful this information is to you.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    Your count weights the cards according to tags for betting. In H17 BJ the EORs for the cards 2-A for betting are as follows:
    +.42, +.51, +.69, +.84, +.49, +.24, -.04, -.25, -.60, -.52

    When more 2's, 3's and 7's are removed than 4's and 5's from the low card group you will be over betting your advantage. The distribution of these advantage distributions around the true count will form a bell curve. A wider bell curve affects all the BJ stats in a negative way. Having more 4's, 5's and 6's in the deck really hurt your chances as these cards make the dealer stiff hands. The 5 is the worst. The flip side is the dealer getting a 5 or 6 or even 4 up in a high count leads to lots of double and split opportunities that also tend to have better outcomes which favor the player.

    Of course you are talking about an unbalanced system so I am not sure how useful this information is to you.
    Looking at those decimal values it makes me wonder if the creators of the Hi-Opt I strategy were formed on the basis of the EOR of the 3,4,5, and 6. But looking at a list of most of the strategies it's easy to see that greater importance is placed on the 5 when it comes to more complex strategies. I was thinking that more 2's, 3's, and 7's could lead to possible overbetting or more volatility in a favorable situation regardless of the strategy used if a positive count is composed of these numbers to an extreme instead of the mean. Of course I suppose it would also depend on how the cards fall when dealt as to who is going to get the short end of the stick. Thinking about Thorps Counting the 5's strategy it seems logical that if more 4's, 5's, and 6's are left in the deck it would not provide a better edge for the player unless a good number of those cards were used up in play.
    Last edited by Blitzkrieg; 02-24-2014 at 04:17 AM.

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