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Thread: Another Basic Strategy for incremental betting?

  1. #1


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    Another Basic Strategy for incremental betting?

    I am aware that when using Basic Strategy one will win or lose the same amount of money when betting the same amount every hand or when increasing their bets when they are riding a winning streak.

    I have been betting at $25 dollar tables mostly...I take $250 or so with me and when I lose that I'm done. I'll bet the minimum when I am down money but if I am playing with the house money I'll increase my bets as I win. I'll go 50-75-100-150-150-250-250-350-350-500(house limit). I go back to the minimum bet as soon as I lose a hand and try to build another winning streak...but no matter how much I am up I quit if I lose my original $250 betting $25 units.

    Up until now I have been using basic strategy(I cannot card count due to poor eyesight). But a thought occurred to me that I'd like to run past some expert players on this forum. I would continue playing normal basic strategy when playing my minimum bets but when I get into a winning streak would it be better to play another strategy that maximizes my winning percentage on hands instead?

    For example: One would have a higher winning percentage by hitting a 10 against a dealer 8 instead of doubling it...you wouldn't win more money doing this normally but trying to lengthen a winning streak is it worth doing?

    So if one could turn a streak of W-W-W-W-L-W-W-W-W into all wins by playing a maximum winning percentage basic strategy it would more than make up for non-optimal play to win all those hands at the house limit.

    The problem is I cannot find a strategy that maximizes win percentage...I've tried to come up with one of my own by using various charts but most charts just show expected value of each hand against the dealer up card and not winning percentages.

    This is what I have come up with(differences from Basic Strategy):
    Stand on 12 vs 2,3
    Stand on 16 vs 10.
    Never surrender.
    Do not double soft 13 or 14.
    Double soft 15, 16, 17 vs. Dealer 5,6
    Double soft 18 vs Dealer 2-6
    Hit soft 18 vs Dealer 8.
    Never double on a 9.
    Double 10 and 11 when dealer has a 2-6.
    Split 2,2 and 3,3 when dealer has a 4-6.
    Never split 4,4.
    Split 9,9 when dealer has an 8.

    Does anyone know the correct strategy to maximize winning percentage and it this even worth trying?

    Thanks!

  2. #2
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    Quote Originally Posted by kurt3892 View Post
    it this even worth trying?
    No, it's not worth trying. All this "house money", "winning streak" stuff is just pure woo-woo BS that has no place in any serious player's arsenal. Either count the cards or don't bother, and if you just can't physically count the cards, then don't bother.

  3. #3


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    There's no such thing as house money, except for what's in the dealers tray. If they take money out and push it to you, it's your money!

    Also, the strategy for maximizing wins (without counting) is basic strategy. Don't screw with it.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kurt3892 View Post

    ...you wouldn't win more money doing this normally
    You answered your own question.

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    The only way to maximize win percentage is to count. Trying to come up with your own basic strategy is giving yourself false hope if your not counting. And to me $250 on a 25 table is to little, maybe try the $10 tables at least youll last longer.

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    Counting in general does not rely on maximizing win percentage but rather equity, and most of the equity will be found in blackjacks and insurance.

  7. #7


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    There are basic strategy deviations that can increase the chances of winning your hand, but they will not help you with your progression because with the extra wins come fewer pushes but more losses and the overall effect is increased house edge. No progression can overcome the house edge, in the long run, but it would be even worse when applying a strategy that increases the house edge.

    The purpose of knowing and applying these strategy deviations is for tournament play where you find yourself in a position where winning your hand will advance you and any other result will fail to do so. Even so, the increase in winning percentage is small -- less than 0.5% and I want to repeat again, that this will not help you with your progression.

    See https://www.blackjacktournaments.com...-one-bet.8201/

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    You've been given all the right answers, but I am much more concerned with your list of what you profess to be "differences from basic strategy." Half of them ARE BS!! So, either you mistyped your intentions, or you have some serious studying to do as to what constitutes correct BS. See below.

    Don

    This is what I have come up with (differences from Basic Strategy):
    Stand on 12 vs 2,3
    Stand on 16 vs 10.
    Never surrender.
    Do not double soft 13 or 14.
    Double soft 15, 16, 17 vs. Dealer 5,6 (BS)
    Double soft 18 vs Dealer 2-6 (All BS, except vs. 2, which is sometimes correct.)
    Hit soft 18 vs Dealer 8.
    Never double on a 9.
    Double 10 and 11 when dealer has a 2-6. (Yikes!!!! BS!)
    Split 2,2 and 3,3 when dealer has a 4-6. (BS)
    Never split 4,4.
    Split 9,9 when dealer has an 8. (BS)

  9. #9


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    Thanks guys, especially Gronbog for the best explanation...

    Hi DSchles your post was confusing me at first I thought you meant BS as that other naughty term!
    As an example...What I meant is that Split 9,9 vs an 8 when basic strat says you split 2-9x7.

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    So if you take 250 with you and your first progression takes you to 500, you still don't have enough money to make all of your splits and doubles so you are already playing with an inflated house edge.

    Also, I can't tell what you're saying in your last post but it sounds like you think 99v8 is not a basic strategy split. If that's the case you need to review basic strategy.

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    Quote Originally Posted by kurt3892 View Post
    Thanks guys, especially Gronbog for the best explanation...

    Hi DSchles your post was confusing me at first I thought you meant BS as that other naughty term!
    As an example...What I meant is that Split 9,9 vs an 8 when basic strat says you split 2-9x7.
    So you are still making a strategy move... Here is what I think, stick to strategy and strategy only if you must play. All you are doing is gambling and making guesses on what you think is right as far as betting. It's called "Positive Progression" and unless you are using it while counting, you are throwing money away. If you are playing for entertainment, then play for entertainment. The only way you can win $$$$ on a consistent long term basis is to count and / or track. There are other ways, but we will stick with those 2 for now.... I say either don't waste your money or flat bet using perfect basic strategy.
    Only the strong survive

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    Quote Originally Posted by kurt3892 View Post
    but if I am playing with the house money I'll increase my bets as I win. I'll go 50-75-100-150-150-250-250-350-350-500(house limit).
    I know this has already been pointed out but....First off once the chips are in your stack it is your money just like all the other chips in your stack. You have to realize you don't expect to be ahead as has been pointed out by many as well. I will address the issues you face as a positive progression bettor without worrying about the merits of such an approach.

    The first issue is what are you going to do with double and split opportunities. A 50% progression is pretty standard for this type of attacks in other games. Usually you lose about as much as you win when the last bet is resolved. What if you lose 2 times the bet with a double or maybe 3 times the bet splitting or a combination of the 2. You have had your monster run and still lose money. You can adjust for this in 2 ways. You can progress slower like maybe 25 or 30% or you can to some degree or totally forgo doubles and splits. Doing this greatly increases the house edge and your expected lose. Obviously all doubles increase your expectation so your progression rate should be able to lose a top bet double and still show a decent profit after a nice run. Some splits are offensive (increasing your expected win) and some are defensive (decreasing your expected lose). Then you can win 2 bets, 1 bet have mixed result that is a push , win 1 or 2 bets by simply splitting. All these things and how they interact with your rate of progression are important considerations. Ideally you want to be able to make all basic strategy plays and keep a hand split a few times and doubled from killing a great run when the dealer hits out on just that one hand.

    Now your task , if you still wish to play a losing game, is to decide how slow you need to progress to play perfect BS and be happy with the results when you end with a split/double losing end to your progression or look into the risk and gain to doubles and splits if you prefer a more aggressive progression. You are obviously not playing for the long run because you must know you will be losing. You must make the most short term outcomes that you would enjoy. Learn to walk away ahead of the game.

  13. #13
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    What about this streak, W-L-W-L-W-L-W-L-W-L-W-L-W-L-W-L-W-L-W-L You've just won 50% of hands and lost 50% of hands but with your system your $250 is gone. There is no way to just use money management to turn a negative expectation game into a positive expectation game. All you are doing is changing the skew of the session win/loss normal distribution. You should always just play perfect basic strategy, if doubling down a $250 bet gives you the "willies" then don't bet $250. Positive progressions are a tradeoff, you are willing to lose more sessions in exchange for more overall playing time (since you're mostly betting your small bet) and a chance of a big win during a streak. You will still lose in the long run, but possibly have more fun doing it. Just don't pretend it accomplishes anything other than entertainment value. You're a gambler for fun, just admit it.

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