expected value calculation help

[MercySakesAlive]

I posted this over in the card counting section too, but thought I might get a quicker answer here.

I bet $100 when I have an advantage of +1.4%.

My expected value is $100 x 0.014 = $1.40

First of all, is that correct?

Second of all, what does that mean? Does it mean that if I were to make this bet 100 times that I could expect to make $1.40 ?

Thank you.

[bigplayer]

It means for every $100 wagered you will win $1.40. If you make this bet 100 times you could expect to make $140.00 over the long haul with a LOT of variation in possible results. It generally takes many thousands of hours of play before your actual results begin to approximate your Expected Value. Fortunately it takes much less hours of play to have a decent shot to at least be a winner.

[MercySakesAlive]

thank, bp

[seriousplayer]

I posted this over in the card counting section too, but thought I might get a quicker answer here.

I bet $100 when I have an advantage of +1.4%.

My expected value is $100 x 0.014 = $1.40

First of all, is that correct?

Second of all, what does that mean? Does it mean that if I were to make this bet 100 times that I could expect to make $1.40 ?

Thank you.

Something to look at: calculate your expected win in blackjack by multiplying the number of hands dealt per hour times the mathematical advantage times the average bet times the length of play. For example, if your average bet is $100 per hand and you play for 10 hours with a 1.4% advantage you should expect to win $1400

$100 per hand x 100 hands/hr x 10 hrs x 1.4%= $1400.

Hope that helps.

[ZenMaster_Flash]

Footnote:

Figure the House Edge and figure what advantage your

particular count is giving you at various True Counts.

Then find the True Count that generates a 2% advantage

for you ~ after compensating for the House Edge; then

set that T C as your point of Maximum (safe) bet, and

scale downwards from there. That will be rather close

a computer generated bet ramp.

[Smartpart]

A way to increase long term profits is decreased short term volatility. Have a cap and a bottom when you sit down at the table. For instance, my cap is 15 times the table minimum bet. So a $10 minimum bet equates to an exit at $150. The "adjusted" bottom is 10 times the minimum bet or $100. For some reason, decks just go bad about 2 or 3 out of 10 sessions. Going from $100 down to $150 seems to accelerate very quickly and then makes it almost impossible to profit for that session. Plus after reading this forum, I've learned it is not always wise to leave with a profit. So, the adjusted part comes from the high in that session. Suppose I was up $60, then my exit point would be 10x or down $40.

Disregard this.

[Nyne]

This is just nonsense. The math doesn't care if you are at a different table or a different casino or even a different country. Win/loss exit points do absolutely nothing to improve your long term results. In fact, if it reduces your play time at all, it reduces your long term profits if you play with an advantage (and it reduces long term losses for civilians). There may be valid heat related reasons to leave after hitting a particular win or loss level, but "increasing long term profits through decreased short term volatility" by using win/loss limits is just a fiction you've created in your mind.

[Rudy]

A way to increase long term profits is decreased short term volatility. Have a cap and a bottom when you sit down at the table. For instance, my cap is 15 times the table minimum bet. So a $10 minimum bet equates to an exit at $150. The "adjusted" bottom is 10 times the minimum bet or $100. For some reason, decks just go bad about 2 or 3 out of 10 sessions. Going from $100 down to $150 seems to accelerate very quickly and then makes it almost impossible to profit for that session. Plus after reading this forum, I've learned it is not always wise to leave with a profit. So, the adjusted part comes from the high in that session. Suppose I was up $60, then my exit point would be 10x or down $40.

Moses, with all due respect, this has nothing to do with the OP question, where do you get those numbers? Please stop giving this type of advices, without math proof... you only confuse people.

[Smartpart]

You said reduce short term volatility and proceeded to explain that could be done through win ceilings and stop losses. Utter nonsense.

Before we just disregard. Let's add a 0 to my figures. So your playing at a $100 minimum table. Don't you think the heat will start warming up a good bit when you are up $1,500? Chances are it's your counting ability and not just luck only that took you to that level of profit. Now, like it or not, you've got "their" attention. Conversely, suppose you hit a bad streak and suddenly are down $1500. I doubt it was your counting ability that put you in that spot but more likely a bad run of cards.

So you are proposing what? Once you win 10x a bad streak is due? Please go with the hokum.

[hitthat16]

Suppose I'm up $1400 without a big bet opportunity. Chances are good the cards are going to reverse (at least in single deck)

No.

[bigplayer]

Suppose I'm up $1400 without a big bet opportunity. Chances are good the cards are going to reverse (at least in single deck)

This is complete nonsense.

[Rudy]

Fair enough Rudy. The numbers should come from within each individuals tolerance for risk and understand what is accpetable profit from a casino's point of view.
I've only been banned once for making too much too fast.

Terrible act...

But twice came from playing too long.

You never have to play too long...

And twice came from a roaring come back (to even) after being down. A pb advisor informed of what lines "not" to cross in terms of "their" tolerance. So that's is where my numbers come from -

So where is the formula?

but I'm not suggesting others use this exact same criteria.

No formula... just criteria...



So Rudy. Are you suggesting your session play is without regard to profit and loss?

You will never know how much you gonna win/loss in every session... otherwise I would be a millionaire.

[Rudy]

Moses, a noted author in his book says that he leaves a shoe when he was 15 units down, (I think is Mr. Don in his BJA 3, correct me if I'm wrong) but he quickly moves to another store/table, but he never talks about to leave a shoe when going up, unless there was much heat.

So why cut your "wining streak", or leave a positive DD game or shoe game just for a "criteria" concept?
If you have the answer, please show me the numbers.

Nothing personal my friend...