Results 1 to 3 of 3

Thread: CVDATA: Trouble reconciling IBA calculations

  1. #1


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No

    CVDATA: Trouble reconciling IBA calculations

    I’m not able to correlate IBAs from CVDATA sims to published IBAs. The IBAs correlate closely for dealer up cards 2-9 but then differ widely with dealer up cards of A and T. Here’s a brief example using the hand A,2 to avoid TD vs CD issues. Sim run for 6D S17 DOA DAS RSP4 nRSA nLS Flat Bet + Complete Basic Strategy using 2e9 rounds.

    BJA3 Tables A50, A58, A59 for 6D S17, EVs from table are for Basic Strategy

    A,2 v A -0.059450
    A,2 v 10 -0.102342
    A,2 v 9 -0.034089

    Now, from the CVDATA sim:
    A,2 v A -0.35043
    A,2 v 10 -0.1686
    A,2 v 9 -0.03365

    All IBAs for 2 -9 show less than a 2% difference with the BJA3 tables but, as can be seen, are not close at A and T. I attempted to work through the probabilities associated with a possible dealer BJ but was unable to reconcile the differences. I’m stumped.

  2. #2
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
    Join Date
    Dec 2011
    Location
    The mote in God's eye
    Posts
    12,468
    Blog Entries
    59


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    The purpose of the BJA tables is determination of basic strategy. I would imagine dealer BJs were ignored as they wouldn't affect results without ENHC. This would also explain why the Cumm. Freq. columns in BJA have lower numbers with dealer ace-up hands. The CVData tables are general purpose and include dealer BJs.

    Of course, the numbers will not match within std. err. due to the cut card effect.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  3. #3


    Did you find this post helpful? Yes | No
    Good point on ENHC. I was able to find the error in my calculations...brain fade on my part. As you point out the published EVs ignore dealer BJs, but if adjusted for dealer BJ the EVs line up with CVDATA results. Adjusting the published EVs to include the probability of dealer blackjack:
    Evadj=EV x (1-Pbj) -1xPbj
    For the rules mentioned above, and for A,2 vs A, the probability of 10 under is: Pbj=6x16/(312-3)
    Evadj = -0.05945 x (1-96/309)-96/309 = -.3517 , vs. CVDATA = -0.35044
    Similarly for A,2 vs T
    Evadj = -0.102342 x (1 –(24-1)/309) – (24-1)/309 = -0.169, vs. CVDATA = -0.1696
    Note, the EVs in BJA3, Wizard of Odds, and Cacarulo are the same, the frequencies are not. Cacarulos frequencies include dealer blackjacks but BJA3 and Wizard of Odds don’t…I was a bit confused by this at first.
    So, why am I mucking around with Basic Strategy comparisons? I’m working on ranking the index plays for various game conditions similar to Schlesinger’s I18. Basic startegy EVs are used to compare return gains for each hand – absent bet ramps. The basic strategy comparisons are also used to check and verify my calculation methods. Earlier I had started down the path of attempting to use the method outlined by Schlesinger ( per Griffin) however, I was not able to rationalize the weighting method used on p59. I’ve opted to use a more straight forward sim approach with CVDATA even if slightly more time consuming.
    Again, thank you for your response.

Similar Threads

  1. rookiego21: Shuffling Tracking calculations
    By rookiego21 in forum Computing for Counters
    Replies: 6
    Last Post: 12-25-2007, 12:30 AM
  2. Replies: 0
    Last Post: 04-05-2007, 06:21 AM
  3. Replies: 4
    Last Post: 06-08-2006, 01:52 PM
  4. eephour: possible trouble
    By eephour in forum Main Forum
    Replies: 4
    Last Post: 09-11-2004, 01:34 PM

Bookmarks

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  

About Blackjack: The Forum

BJTF is an advantage player site based on the principles of comity. That is, civil and considerate behavior for the mutual benefit of all involved. The goal of advantage play is the legal extraction of funds from gaming establishments by gaining a mathematic advantage and developing the skills required to use that advantage. To maximize our success, it is important to understand that we are all on the same side. Personal conflicts simply get in the way of our goals.