What is the best way to handle a negative/unfavorable count in a 2D game? For example starting a new game the RC is ranging from a -3 to -8 and seems to stay that way throughout half a deck or slightly past.
A. Do you keep playing
B. Do you get up and leave
How about a 6D game, is it wiser to just get up and leave if the deck goes very unfavorable?
One of the key variables to answer that question is spread.
if you are playing an ok 6d spreading x12 then avoiding playing negative counts of course is going to be good.
if you are playing a great game spreading x200 then what happens when you have your min bet out there wont be important.
A play all strategy there is better since you wont risk losing your seat and youll be able to go through those negative counts quicker by eating cards yourself.
i play at places that allow me to use a ridiculous spread, so when in really negative territory Ill play 4 or 5 spots at min to speed things up.
so to answer your question, being able to play all or not will depend mostly on the spread you are playing with.
Last edited by bjarg; 12-31-2013 at 07:15 AM.
Take a second to think.
Are there any Aces left?
Do I know how to play my hands at this low a T.C. ?
and most importantly … how many rounds remain ?
At a very low count, you and the dealer are each consuming 3+ cards per hand.
If unsure of a play … hit, don't stand; and neither double nor split (in most cases)
Bear in mind that even if your e.v. is -2% you are betting minimally. Costs you zilch.
I play DD differently than 6d, in the fact that I don't play off the top with my minimum wager. Let's say you are playing green to light black at a $25 min table (and these are just random numbers). Play off the top with $75 and spread to max bet of $300. That's a 1-4 spread and shouldn't attract too much attention. Now as the count goes negative, you drop to $50 and then $25. Now, you are essentially playing with a 1-12 spread, with your average minimum wager being in the $50 range, for an effective 1-8 spread.
But, you will almost never show both the $25 minimum and the $300 max in the same period. If the count goes positive it looks like a 1-4 ($75-$300) spread. If the count goes negative it looks like a 1-3 ($25-$75) spread. You can show your spread in either direction several times and still revert back to the same starting point at a new shuffle. It isn't until you show your full spread, meaning show your spread in each direction, that it triggers the exit point.
At this level of play there is a secondary benefit and that is avoiding attention at the traditional $100 level checks play call. With a traditional spread of $25-$300, the checks play call is the first time you should draw any attention. But if you begin with a $75 wager, they won't think anything of the $100 level checks play call, thus eliminating the first round of attention.
Last edited by KJ; 12-31-2013 at 09:30 AM.
Sometime playing negative counts is not as bad as you think. Most of the time in negative counts you are betting the minimum or half of your minimum bet so it might not hurt you that badly. Sometime what hurt you the most is in favorable counts for two reasons:Originally Posted by Blitzkrieg
1. It is a mistaken idea that you win more hand at a higher count. In favorable count your win rate only increase slightly from the 42.7% expected win rate using prefect basic strategy.
2. You are placing a higher bet or sometime your max bet.
Let me give you an example: One time I was playing in Las Vegas. I was playing 6 deck S17,DAS, RSA, LS Penetration 83% at a $25 low limit table. My max bet was $300. I was using TKO I play all since the penetration was not that bad. I bet the minimum in negative count. There were four players at the table. Four decks has been dealt out. The TC count jumps to 11.5. So I put my max bets out there. I end up losing more rounds than I win. However, the count is still positive so I continue to put out my max bet. For the rest of the two decks remaining the count didn't go below TC = 4.
What happened was I only won two hands out of the two decks remaining when the count was in the positive territory like TC= 4. At that time I was putting out my max bet. This not only happened once. What I am trying to say is sometime the most devastating loses are when the count is higher. I am not saying you should not bet high when the count calls for it.
Answer to you question: "What is the best way to handle a negative/unfavorable count in a 2D game?"
In a 2 deck game it might not be a good idea to backcount and wong in. What I will do is place the minimum bet when the count is unfavorable in a 2D game and using negative indices from the system to play the hands. I will keep playing within your means.
How about a 6D game, is it wiser to just get up and leave if the deck goes very unfavorable?
Well, sometime I leave at very unfavorable counts but most of the time I play all especially when the penetration is very good. When playing in unfavorable counts I usually half my minimum bet. Most of the time you will be putting out minimum bet when the count is in negative zone. If you want a higher percentage advantage or SCORE it is better to drop out at TC = -1 and play only positive counts.
With the exception of an extreme situation (see thread on tarzan count), index plays in negative count situations are more about minimizing the damage. From a strictly EV point of view, playing through negative counts is never the best option. It is only when you weigh in the fact that playing DD, jumping out of all negative counts is just not practical, that you begin to look at just what the right balance is.
4 or 5 spots in a 2D game? It seems like that would be a tactic to consider but a player would have to take into consideration of where they are in the deck compared to where the cut card is correct? Playing like that I would have to use a spread.
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