How important is Deck estimation in a multi deck game? It is perhaps the single thing i struggle with most for some reason. I don feel like im off by very much. But clearly there IS a diff in TC if you "think" theres 2 decks left when theres more like 3. Also, do you shoot for half or full deck resolution? If full, do you tend to round up and down or just floor it?
~Pac
Further to above, as an example, take 6 decks, numbering each card sequentially form 1 to 312, place in order and practice cutting. Essentially same excercise though it wil give you a more precise deck estimation. Keep this deck in order to keep practicing. Now, if you want to improve your tracking skills, do exactly the same thing with another 6 deck shoe, this time color coding taking all low cards, let's say 2 thru 6 using a coloured felt marker to color the sides of the cards. Then using a different color, mark the neutral cards, say 7, 8 and 9. Repeat the process for 10 value cards and lastly aces.Originally Posted by Tthree
IF your Deck Estimation Skills are poor, you may be playing at a disadvantage.
Both under-estimates of penetration and over-estimations MUST be avoided.
Under-estimates leave money on the table; while over-estimates results in
inaccurate index play ~ as well as a radically increased "Risk of Ruin."
The above CANNOT be overstated. Do NOT dismiss it as trivial. It isn't.
Don't stress it, just be within a half deck segment each time and your results wont be affected. Also a good way that I use is to always eyeball the midpoint of the discard rack when all cards are placed in there before a shuffle, NEVER ASSUME how the cards look stacked together in the discard rack before a shuffle, because that will throw off your TC conversion because you won't know where the quarter point, half way point or 3/4 point is during the shoe. The reason is each casino uses a different size discard rack so you can't just assume where the cards will line up. Also depending on the time of day, the cards might look thicker than usual cause of the humidity and the amount of wear and tear throughout the hours of play and might stack higher than usual.
So what I like to do before playing my first shoe at a casino, is watch a table until the dealer shuffles and see all the cards stacked up together on the discard pile and EYEBALL the midpoint. Then use that information and measure accordingly to get your TC.
Last edited by ZenKinG; 11-25-2013 at 10:04 AM.
Interestingly enough, if this is a steady store for you, a variation of this theme is as follows. Obtain a number of discarded decks either sold or given away by the store in question. Keep a number of dollar chips - then measure .25, .5, .75, 1.0 etc deck segments against various heights of accumulated chips. Soon enough, you will accurately determine deck estimation based on eyeball measurement of discards against chip height.
Ive noted a few dealers giving a lil extra meat to play through the most seem to jus chop off some amount that seems excessive. Not sure why dealers wouldn't just cut off less. Especially if they arent pressured by their place of work. If i was a dealer, id be chopping off 1D from those 6/8D games. Cutting down to .5D probably WOULD get the dealers some heat haha
~Pac
Deck estimation in a multiple deck game is very important using an balanced count system. However, deck estimation don't have to be exact in card counting but if there are 3 decks left and you estimated 2 decks left than there is something wrong with that. You are too much off which is not good. It will make you count ineffective. Your betting will be off and it would result in taking insurance incorrectly. It is not that significant if there are 3.25 deck left and you estimated 3.5 left. It seem like you are like one deck off. I think you should worry about round up, down and flooring later because you don't have your deck estimation down.
Last edited by seriousplayer; 11-27-2013 at 08:39 AM.
Early in the shoe (Decks 4,5,6,7,8) deck estimation off by 1/2 Deck or even a full deck will not make too much of a difference in things. Arnold Synder already showed that using compromise (rounded) index numbers via High-Low Lite does not change system performance appreciably. From 3 decks in though being a half deck off can make a big difference in terms of variance (when you overestimate your edge and overbet) or in EV (when you underestimate your edge and underbet).
It's easy enough to be reasonably accurate by rounding up or down to the nearest whole deck in the first half of the shoe, then at 2.5 decks left use a multiplier of 0.4, then at or near 2 decks left divide by 2, and then gradually use multipliers of 0.6, 0.7, 0.8, and 0.9 as I progress towards one deck remaining. At that point multiply by 1 (RC=TC). Within 1 deck use the following
1 Deck Left = Multiplier 1.0
3/4 Deck Left = Multiplier 1.3
2/3 Deck Left = Multiplier 1.5
1/2 Deck Left = Multiplier 2.0
1/3 Deck Left = Multiplier 3.0
1/4 Deck Left = Multiplier 4.0
Remember, in a deeply dealt double deck game a very mild running count (only +2 or +3 RC) can call for a maximum bet near the cut card.
Last edited by bigplayer; 11-30-2013 at 10:08 PM.
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