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Thread: Multiple Burn Cards at the start of a new shoe......

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    Multiple Burn Cards at the start of a new shoe......

    I am sure this question has been asked many times in the past, but I cannot find a definitive answer anywhere, so I will try here......

    Basically, there are many online Live Dealer Casinos these days, that think that they can combat all the counters by burning anything up to SIX cards at the start of the shoe.....

    I have seen a number of forum posts, in the past, that state that the burn cards, because they are not seen, have no effect on the count because you can "Pretend" that they are cards that are still in the Shoe behind the Cut Card and therefore the Counter has not been disadvantaged by this procedure.......

    Surely this is NOT the case......?

    If this really was the case, then a Counter could come in after one deck, having missed the first 52 cards, and start counting, claiming that the cards that he has not seen, he can pretend that they are cards that are still in the Shoe behind the cut card......

    Surely a Counter thinking along those lines is Naive and that there is a massive disadvantage generated for the Counter when so many cards are burnt at the start of a shoe......?

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Both examples are true, but must be taken into account when determining real penetration and calculating true counts.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    Thank You for your quick reply......

    To me, it just seems so bizarre that I can sit down at a table and start counting from card 53, knowing full well, that my count is "Wrong"......If after another 52 Cards the count is a massive plus, I start betting big.....However, I look around the table and other, truly professional counters are NOT betting at all because, to them, the count is negative, based on the 104 cards that they have seen......

    I am playing BIG, they are not playing at all........

    Surely they know more than me, seeing that they have seen 104 cards to my 52.......Can it really be correct for me to think that my count is accurate......?

    I just cannot convince myself that I can jump into a game half way and start counting and expect my count to be accurate....?

    If it was accurate, why are not the players who have seen all 104 cards not playing......?

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Your count is not "wrong". It is accurate as far as the information that you have. But, those that saw more cards have more information. Just as a hole-carder would have even more information than they. That doesn't make those that started counting at the start "wrong" because they are not hole-carding.

    Obviously, starting after a full-deck has been dealt without knowledge of that deck puts you at a relative disadvantage.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    You can only work with the information that you're given. In this case your own count. It has no relevance someone else is betting or not. Unless they tell you what their count is, it shouldn't enter your decision.

    On the other hand, if you know they are indeed competent counters and they are not betting, why would you? Also they may have other information that they will not share with you or anyone else.

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    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Well put.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

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    ok, I agree with the idea that my count is as good as it will get, with the information that I have......But what I would like to know that long term, is this a winning strategy on the basis that over the long term my under estimating and over estimating of my position will even itself out....OR is my count so "Random" that I would be a fool to play in a situation where I have not seen the first 52 cards of a shoe......?

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    Quote Originally Posted by llama1 View Post
    I would be a fool to play in a situation where I have not seen the first 52 cards of a shoe......?
    If you didn't see the first 52 cards it is the same as playing with one deck lss penetration. The important thing is you must remember that the cards in the discard tray are one deck more than the divisor for the true count. If not ll your TC's and index plays will be off. You must view the discard tray as only having the cards you have seen in it. The unseen cards must be viewed as additional cards behind the cut card. You get to the last deck in the shoe and divide by 1 instead of 1+1=2 (number of decks left to be dealt plus the number of unseen decks in the discard tray) you will really be hurting yourself.

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    if your count is "wrong" then it's always wrong, even off the top of a fresh shoe because you will never know how much of the count you've got is behind the cut card. For example, a shoe with 5 decks dealt out of 6 starting brand new off the top your starting count is 0 for a typical system, but there might be 10 extra big cards behind the cut card, in which case your count was off by 10 before you even started playing.

    The point is, you can only go by the info that you have. Unseen cards are Unseen cards. The definition of "True Count" is Running Count/Decks Unseen not Running Count/Decks behind the cut card.

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    If it helps your understanding, shuffle up a 6 deck shoe with A cut card at 5/6. Burn 52 cards. Now put them at the back of the shoe. What happened, aside from the pen dropping to 4/6? Not a thing. So when you ask how much this hurts you, the real question is how much does 1 deck less pen hurt you? It's significant, but if you walk up on a game with a deck in the discard tray but the table covered in small cards, you should play. Just remember to adjust your true count divisor as explained above.

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    I understand your arguments. But can I deny that perhaps I am playing with -EV?
    Supposed the first 52 cards were only high cards, the low are coming and due to my personal information I play with +EV but in realita I play with -EV.
    Supposed the first 52 cards were only low cards, the high are coming so I think I play with -EV, in realita there is +EV.
    In a real game there will not be so extremes so due to the adjusted RC and pen my personal EV will approximate the real EV. Is this right?

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    Quote Originally Posted by bvlgari View Post
    I understand your arguments. But can I deny that perhaps I am playing with -EV?
    Supposed the first 52 cards were only high cards, the low are coming and due to my personal information I play with +EV but in realita I play with -EV.
    Supposed the first 52 cards were only low cards, the high are coming so I think I play with -EV, in realita there is +EV.
    In a real game there will not be so extremes so due to the adjusted RC and pen my personal EV will approximate the real EV. Is this right?
    I think Nyne put it in the most straight forward terms. You are simply playing a shoe with less penetration, and with all other things (bet ramp,index plays, etc) being equal, your predicted EV (over the long run of playing this situation) will be less purely because of the shallower penetration. Mechanics wise, you have to estimate the divisor in your TC calculation based on the number of cards you actually see, not how many are in the discard tray. It's as if those burned cards were behind the cut card and not in the discard tray. Your two scenarios are no different than those first 52 cards being put behind the cut card. You can always compare what your advantage during actual play, base on what you actually see, vs what it would be if you had the additional knowledge of the RC for 52 cards behind the cut card, but if you didn't see them, or estimate them via shuffle tracking, you're just playing a game with shallower penetration. Your "personal EV" is the "real EV" - it's just less because of the extra burned cards.
    Last edited by Intermediate; 11-01-2013 at 09:07 AM.

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