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Thread: Dealer Upcard Probability, Bust Rate, and Bust Frequency vs. HiLo TC

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    Dealer Upcard Probability, Bust Rate, and Bust Frequency vs. HiLo TC

    Folks,

    Below are three figures derived from three two-billion-round CVData sims for a 6D, H17, 75% pen game.

    The first figure, "Upcard Rate", shows the probability for each rank to be the dealer's upcard. Note that the "X" has a separate scale on the right of the figure. No surprises here: as the TC rises, the "Smalls" probability falls, the "Neutrals" probability changes very little, and the "Large" probability increases.

    The second figure, "Dealer Bust Rate for All Upcards", shows the probability of a dealer bust given the indicated upcard. If you're having trouble reading the legend, at TC=0 the lines, from the top down, are for 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 7, 8, 9, X, and A. This information might be helpful if you're playing some of the new sidebets like "Dealer Bust 21" (see http://wizardofodds.com/games/blackj.../8/#dealerbust).

    The third figure, "Dealer Bust Frequency for All Upcards", shows the probability that the dealer will get the indicated upcard and then bust. Here at TC=0, from the top down, the lines are for X, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 7, 8, 9, and A. The X dominates, due to the plurality of X's compared to the other upcards.

    Hope this information is useful!

    Dog Hand
    Upcard Rate.jpgDealer Bust Rate for All Upcards.jpgDealer Bust Frequency for All Upcards.jpg

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    A belated thanks for this!

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    Dog Hand
    Thanks for the pretty pictures. Useful, as usual.

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    Grrrreat Stuff.

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    Thanks, for the great information Dog Hand.

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    Speaking for newbies, while it verifies the need to bet more and to use deviations, a few examples of its practical usefulness is most appreciated.

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    Quote Originally Posted by ZeeBabar View Post
    Speaking for newbies, while it verifies the need to bet more and to use deviations, a few examples of its practical usefulness is most appreciated.
    You have to get creative and figure out where this information is useful. Too sensitive to post to the public.

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    Quote Originally Posted by hitthat16 View Post
    You have to get creative and figure out where this information is useful. Too sensitive to post to the public.
    Afraid of that answer. Well,mI will just stick to the basics that I have learned from a few books and this site.

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