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Thread: [[Don Schlesinger]] EOR Tables in general

  1. #1


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    [[Don Schlesinger]] EOR Tables in general


    Hello Don.

    On page 498 of BJA3, Checking the Quality of EOR Tables, you stated:

    "An EORs table is supposedly a fair and accurate one if: Sum Ei * Pi = 0; that is, the EOR of a single rank times its probability of being drawn, summed over the thirteen different values should be zero."

    Obviously this applies to Blackjack, and all tables I've seen generated by Griffin, Cacarulo and you bear this out.


    My question revolves a slightly different game. In Spanish 21, all 10s are removed. I am assuming that the "Sum Ei * Pi" for the remaining 12 ranks should still be zero.
    Is this correct?


    However, in Katrina Walker's SP21 book, the sum for SP21
    H17 is -0.09. I had also received EORs for SP21 S17 in which totals +0.24. Can these figures be correct?
    __

    Table 5.1 in Katarina Walker's book on Spanish 21 H17

    rank.........2...... 3...... 4...... 5...... 6...... 7...... 8...... 9...... J...... Q...... K...... A......tot
    SP21
    H17.. +0.29.. +0.40.. +0.56.. +0.65.. +0.40.. +0.04.. -0.21.. -0.17.. -0.44.. -0.44.. -0.44.. -0.73.. -0.09


    Thanks very much,
    Math Demon


    P.S. Norm, can the EORs in Spanish 21 be generated using CVData?
    .
    To NFL newbies: Please perform your own analysis. Confirm any stats presented. Draw your own conclusions.

    Handicapping is EXTREMELY hard! All statistical evidence (and game insights) may indicate strongly a specific outcome, winner, or continuing trend; but a turn-over, a missed field goal, an erroneous call, a key injury, etc. can easily change the outcome, the margins, and/or the totals. Division rivalry games and games with playoff implications are highly unpredictable.

    .

  2. #2
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    Both Sp21 numbers you are referring to are from Kat's book.

  3. #3


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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    Both Sp21 numbers you are referring to are from Kat's book.

    Hello Tthree. The SP21 (H17) is on Table 5.1 in Kat's book. I can find no reference for EORs for the SP21 S17 in it. Can you tell me which table or page it's located?


    Thanks,
    MD

    .
    To NFL newbies: Please perform your own analysis. Confirm any stats presented. Draw your own conclusions.

    Handicapping is EXTREMELY hard! All statistical evidence (and game insights) may indicate strongly a specific outcome, winner, or continuing trend; but a turn-over, a missed field goal, an erroneous call, a key injury, etc. can easily change the outcome, the margins, and/or the totals. Division rivalry games and games with playoff implications are highly unpredictable.

    .

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    "However, in Kat[a]rina Walker's SP21 book, the sum for SP21 H17 is -0.09. I had also received EORs for SP21 S17 in which totals +0.24. Can these figures be correct?"

    You didn't divide by the probabilities; i.e., you don't just sum the EORs. You need to divide, in this case, by 12. So, if Kat's values are "off," they are so by a lot less than you may have at first imagined, as -0.09/12 = -0.0075, and +0.24/12 = +0.02.

    On p. 498, which you allude to, I state that values < 0.01 are generally considered acceptable. So, the first of your numbers meets that criterion, while the second isn't very good.

    Don

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    Quote Originally Posted by Math Demon View Post
    Hello Tthree. The SP21 (H17) is on Table 5.1 in Kat's book. I can find no reference for EORs for the SP21 S17 in it.
    I guess I was mistaken.

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    Quote Originally Posted by DSchles View Post
    So, if Kat's values are "off," they are so by a lot less than you may have at first imagined, as -0.09/12 = -0.0075, and +0.24/12 = +0.02.

    On p. 498, which you allude to, I state that values < 0.01 are generally considered acceptable. So, the first of your numbers meets that criterion, while the second isn't very good.
    Don, do you have a better set of EORs for SP21 S17?

  7. #7


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    Sorry, no.

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