Some players can't leave while they are ahead. I suspect you try to make sure you do as much as possible. The rest is luck enjoy it while it lasts. Sooner or later you will likely see the other side of luck.
Thanks for your comments and interest Tthree.
I hope to come back to this thread in several months with further results - which I would hope and expect to be with continued profits.
You are right that I work very hard at ensuring that once I am ahead I leave with a profit, both on any winning table and for any trip to the casino. Dealers often comment on this - ie my propensity to leave while ahead. Sometimes that costs me if the table returns to winning soon after I have left - some players have told me this has happened at times. But often I have gone back to a table to see that I was the first to leave a table that has continued to lose and all the other players have also left. On balance I think my tactic is very much paying off.
On your other point about luck - I have experienced times over the last 3+ years when I have had net losses for two or more months - the worst sequence has been 3.5 months before my winning returned. Therefore I have seen the other side of luck. It seems difficult for others, especially advantage players, to acknowledge that despite not knowing what the count has been ever over the last 1500 tables, that overall I have won fairly consistently.
My question now is whether I would have won more had I been counting - I think you and your colleagues would definitely argue that I would have. I accept that is likely to be true but I am unwilling to risk being identified as a counter and either banned or restricted to just flat betting given we only have one casino in Melbourne.
I have given counting some thought over the years - maybe what I should do is to practice a hi-lo count on tables I play and see if my winning occurs more at times when the count is very positive. I keep records after every table so I could record the count of any table where I played at from the start of the shoe. The shoe games in Melbourne at my home casino have 8 decks and the dealer cuts out about 1.5-2 decks with the cut card. We have no hole card and no surrender and doubling only on 9,10,11 - ie no soft doubling. DAS is allowed up to 3 hands.
Of course on CSM tables like I will be playing this weekend in Adelaide counting will be irrelevant.
Cheers
A counter would have had a much higher expectation. They deal with very large standard deviations form expectation just like a BS player. In the short term luck for one or the other will win the day but in the long term you will win more money counting. The long run takes along time to hit. Maybe a year-ish for professional amount of play and closer to a decade for the player that plays infrequently. It all depends on your N0, the number of hands played for your SD to equal your expectation. It takes many multiples of N0 to get to the long run. The N0 for most counter is between 5,000 and 40,000 hands depending on their playing and betting style and the game(s) they play. Of course for a negative expectation to have a N0 the number of hands describes when you are very likely to be behind not ahead.
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