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Thread: Question for Mr BJ75

  1. #27


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    It's been shown that when it comes to playing without an advantage, the best thing the player can do is flat bet.

    It's been shown through simulation that players that vary their bet based on progressions or without any knowledge of the remaining deck composition lose MORE than a run of the mill flat better.

  2. #28


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    Well I do understand that I am at a slight disadvantage playing and that the counters will win more in the long run than I will. However neither oscars grind nor continuous same flatbet will be able to keep up withy system in the long run and willing to put a k on that. 4 or 6 deck shoe. I might sound kinda bold but I played enough to know what's gonna come out in a simulator if I had one.

  3. #29


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    Quote Originally Posted by Bank builder View Post
    ... neither oscars grind nor continuous same flatbet will be able to keep up withy system in the long run and willing to put a k on that.
    Incorrect.

    Quote Originally Posted by Bank builder View Post
    I might sound kinda bold but I played enough to know what's gonna come out in a simulator if I had one.
    No you haven't, in fact it's virtually impossible for any human being to play enough hands in their lifespan, let alone remember them all. You obviously have very little understanding of statistics, sample size, standard deviation, etc.

    Please invest some of your lucky wins in some books that will explain why your systems are wrong and why they will lose in the long run. Start here http://qfit.com/book/index.htm this book is free, it also has a hell of a lot of graphs and charts for those who don't fully understand the numbers.
    "One of these days in your travels, you are going to come across a guy with a nice brand new deck of cards, and this guy is going to offer to bet you that he can make the Jack of Spades jump out of the deck and squirt cider in your ear. But, son, do not take this bet, for if you do, as sure as you are standing there, you are going to end up with an ear full of cider."

  4. #30
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    Quote Originally Posted by hardin county boy View Post
    i disagree with them about voodoo and do not like their dogmatism when encountered
    This is the same as saying "I disagree with mathematicians about 2+2 being 4 and do not like their dogmatism when encountered". Disagree all you want, your beliefs about streaks are firmly in the realm of voodoo and the math is certain about that. Faith-based systems are crap, period.

  5. #31


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    Quote Originally Posted by MidniteToker View Post
    ... and the math is certain about that.
    Assuming you believe in math of course. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9joQr4Tsk4
    "One of these days in your travels, you are going to come across a guy with a nice brand new deck of cards, and this guy is going to offer to bet you that he can make the Jack of Spades jump out of the deck and squirt cider in your ear. But, son, do not take this bet, for if you do, as sure as you are standing there, you are going to end up with an ear full of cider."

  6. #32
    Random number herder Norm's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Bank builder View Post
    I do wonder how my system would do in a long term simulator.
    All betting systems have the same EV as basic strategy. Modifying your betting or leaving the table based on no knowledge of the cards has virtually no effect on the odds.
    "I don't think outside the box; I think of what I can do with the box." - Henri Matisse

  7. #33
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    Quote Originally Posted by AussiePlayer View Post
    Assuming you believe in math of course. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W9joQr4Tsk4
    That was pretty funny. Half the non-math believers couldn't even speak proper English either. Miss Vermont had a brain though. Well art least the one person can add. She could probably learn to count a level 1 but only an unbalanced system. The times, "X", was something that was over her empty head. She probably wouldn't be able to do TC conversions I mean the goes into, "/", is harder than times..

  8. #34
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    I am at least thankful that my reaction of "this can't possibly be real" was validated.

    http://www.snopes.com/photos/people/missusa.asp

  9. #35
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    The voodoo players don't believe in math either. That's why they believe a progression independent of advantage can work.

  10. #36


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    Quote Originally Posted by Norm View Post
    All betting systems have the same EV as basic strategy. Modifying your betting or leaving the table based on no knowledge of the cards has virtually no effect on the odds.
    riddle: the CASINO basketball team played the PLAYER team exactly 10,000 "games". the casino set the rules and required that there be no free throws nor three pointers, "the score" would be determined only by field goals from anywhere on the court. they also required that their team hit exactly the same percent of field goals vs the player team as the game of blackjack percentage of hands won. they further demanded that, at random, some field goals would be valued the same as doubles, splits and blackjacks in the game of blackjack, again in exact expectation of frequency as in blackjack.

    sensing the game was a bit unfair, the PLAYERS demanded and were granted the right to say ahead of time how much each field goal would be worth, change that value any time and the PLAYERS were granted the right to say when each of the 10,000 games ended, whether very short or very long.

    how did the PLAYERS win more games AND score more net points than the CASINO?

    ANSWER: (don't peek till you are ready) they played it straight and when they had a nice win, called it a game. since it did not work that way a lot of times, they played a while, were losing, so doubled the point values hoping to get ahead and quit, which often happened, sparing them yet another double up effort that sometimes won and sometimes lost. sometimes, they got far enough behind that, with an eye to that "net points won" thing, they stopped the nonsense of doubling up till they got lucky and instead, conceded the game and the points. had the 10,000 games been 60 minutes each and all field goals worth 2 points, slam dunk, the PLAYERS woulda lost more games and scored fewer points. by allowing the PLAYERS to say what constituted a game and to randomly call for "double or nothing" till it suited their purpose, the casino gave the players an advantage capable of overcoming the player disadvantage. seriously, do you really wanna open yourself to betting with me and allowing me to pester you to death with, "come on, double or nothing" all for the privilege of taking 1/2% of all the bets?

  11. #37
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    The problem with the analogy is the total win isn't about how many games you won and lost but what the total score of all the games add up to. The players may win more games this way but the will be further behind in aggregate score in the same amount of time. If you feel better losing more money in the same amount of time but having more winning sessions than losers that is fine with me. I will take being ahead in aggregate score but losing far more sessions than I win. Fortunately I win about 2 out of every 3 sessions and win money so I don't need to make that call. This is the math of voodoo betting. Raising the stakes at random or because you are behind increases the likelihood of posting a win at increases the certainty of being further behind in the same amount of time overall sessions.

  12. #38
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    What you are not factoring into your thinking is the casino still will score more in the long run and their points are worth twice as much as well. All you are doing is doubling the rate you are falling behind overall. It may allow you to post a few more tiny wins but you will also post more GIANT losses. If only there was a way to increase the stakes when those random increase pints for splits, doubles and BJs were going to happen. Oh yeah there is.

  13. #39


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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    The voodoo players don't believe in math either. That's why they believe a progression independent of advantage can work.
    since you and i both believe in math, lets concede that if a guy loses 4, one unit bets and goes to 2, loses four of them, goes to 3 and wins 5 times = 15 units won vs 12 lost, even though he lost a net of 3 hands, we both believe a guy can gain TEMPORARY advantage with varying his bet size. nothing will ever change the math expectation that he will lose more hands than he wins and we both know that he cant just increase his bets forever--he is going to eat a good sized loss with this approach but he need not eat the GIANT losses a counter can and does. the question becomes one of whether he can keep up the hocus-pocus of varying his bet to get his butt outta loss territory enough to overcome the inevitable losses he must eat to attempt varying his bet to try to win?

    the answer to that is NOT as simple as calling it all one long game----when this guy arbitrarily "quits while ahead" and "limits his losses" and varies his bets to achieve the former, it is no longer a series of long-term bets, it becomes a series of bets that are determined only by what the player "calls" a single bet, that might be 2 hands or 1000 hands, he waits till he likes what he sees to submit the data point and he keeps varying the bet-size to try to wriggle into a good data point often having lost more hands than won. true, he must occasionally face reality and submit that losing, say, 100 unit day but, one cannot insist, without showing the math, that the characteristics of usual-blackjack-ebb-and-flow cannot be exploited by the bet-up-and-down-depending-on-the-circumstances guy to accumulate more wins than the losses that come on the less-usual-ebb-and-flow-of-the-game days. gotta show your work.

    gotta consider that the smart guy was very hard to kill on the way down and it was only ugly variance that got him whereas the game does lend itself to some "easy" home run wins and many days of more modest wins because the casino allows our guy to vary the bet size and quit when he sees whatever best fits that day's circumstances------nothing like the predictable results of basic strategists nor counters---just different AND, worth a look.

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