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Thread: Variance at its finest

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    Variance at its finest

    I thought I'd post this just to illustrate what can and does happen when banging the tables. Before last week, I was up right at $7K. I had some pretty horrific swings that went something like this. Up $7K first two months of the year, then down $500.00 after the next three months. The last three months brought me almost back to $7K so I've been playing break-even blackjack for about 6 months.

    Last week I won $4K after only three hours of play then today I dumped back half my $4K in two hours of play. After eight months I'm still up $9K with about ninety hours of play. Last year I made $8K with about 125 hours of play so I'm about at EV for my style of play. I think you guys noticed that I don't play that many hours. I keep telling myself that I can do 500 hours a year, so I'm going to give it a shot in 2014.

    Easy as One, Two, Three.

    This is a title that I came up with that was included in one of my reports back in the dark ages. I came up with what I felt was a workable way to play near optimal blackjack. For my next post, I'll show you guys what I came up with almost 30 years ago. Don S. proof read it and had a couple of negative comments which I'll cover. Think Mr. Perfect and White Rabbit.

    Lastly, had I played my normal stakes, the win would have been several times what I posted above. Of course, I probably wouldn't be able to play blackjack anywhere in Las Vegas.

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    Nice post George C. Looking forward to more.

    After switching to Red 7 (from using balanced strategies in the past) and bet ramping as per CVCX sims and Fred Renzey's similar KISS 3 bet ramp I can see from practice my variance is increasing.

    Before it seems I was increasing my bet later than I could have and waiting for probably 3.5 to 5 percent edges for my top bet. And my edge before must have been much less than it could have been.

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    Quote Originally Posted by George C View Post
    Easy as One, Two, Three.
    Hey don't bring me and my brothers into this.

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    This reminds me that I've played a couple more count systems. Namely the Bish's Red7, Renzey's Kiss and Ed Thorp's original Ten count. I like what Renzey did with his Kiss count. Blast from the past. I just learned the Red7 with six variations from basic. I did this because my top bet came out at a HiLo TC of +2. Now the Red7 identifies this by running count with a high degree of accuracy. One bright day Don S. and I were at the same 2D table at the Sands LV. Back then it was great rules and about 13 cards c/o. Don's top bet at the time was 2 x $600 and mine was half of that. The count went well past the Red7's pivot and I was dealt a hard 15 vs. a dealer up-card of 9. I really had no idea if I should hit or stand so I looked over to Don. His reply, "Not even close", so there are limitations to the Red7. Thx alexost for our comment.
    Quote Originally Posted by alexost View Post
    Nice post George C. Looking forward to more.

    After switching to Red 7 (from using balanced strategies in the past) and bet ramping as per CVCX sims and Fred Renzey's similar KISS 3 bet ramp I can see from practice my variance is increasing.

    Before it seems I was increasing my bet later than I could have and waiting for probably 3.5 to 5 percent edges for my top bet. And my edge before must have been much less than it could have been.

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    Hey, George, you're really bringing back wonderful memories -- and yours is awfully good!

    I hope I didn't say, "Not even close" too loudly!!

    Ah, the good ol' days. Wish we could go back to when it was FUN to play on the Strip. Those two-deck games at Sands, Maxim, and Riviera were superb. And then there was Caesars when it was CAESARS!!

    Don

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    George, when are you going to post this? I am on the edge of my seat

    Quote Originally Posted by George C View Post
    Easy as One, Two, Three.

    This is a title that I came up with that was included in one of my reports back in the dark ages. I came up with what I felt was a workable way to play near optimal blackjack. For my next post, I'll show you guys what I came up with almost 30 years ago. Don S. proof read it and had a couple of negative comments which I'll cover. Think Mr. Perfect and White Rabbit. ]

  7. #7
    Senior Member Jabberwocky's Avatar
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    so there are limitations to the Red7.

    Not in true count mode.

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    So this is the George C,,,I did not realize till now, that puts a whole different slant on things, very cool.

    Ouchez
    Last edited by Ouchez; 09-22-2013 at 07:43 AM. Reason: spelling

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    so what did you do with the 15?

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    Senior Member Jabberwocky's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Meistro123 View Post
    so what did you do with the 15?
    Everybody knows that 15 always gets you twenty.

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    so you're saying I shouldn't hit (that)?

  12. #12
    Senior Member Jabberwocky's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Meistro123 View Post
    so you're saying I shouldn't hit (that)?
    No. You shouldn't hit on that! Unless you're drunk.

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    That's the crabbiest spot to hit. Sometimes backoffs are the best thing.

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