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Thread: Rider strategy

  1. #14


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    James989,

    Below is the "rules" page for the sims I did. Do you see anything wrong?

    If not, try running your sim for 2 billion rounds: since the edge is so small, you need to be sure the standard error is small, too.

    Oh... when I ran my sims, I set the shuffle point to 311 cards, so the dealer shuffled every round: this avoids the "cut card effect", and is the normal way to measure B.S. IBA's.

    Dog Hand
    Discard Splits Rules Page.jpg

  2. #15


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    Dog Hand,

    My previous simulation is based on 296 cards shuffle point, so I thought this can avoid the cut card effect.

    With new shuffle point of 311 cards, my results :-

    EV(IBA-big bettor)= +0.040% and EV(small bettor)= -0.488%.

    Have you check your PM ?

    Thanks Again.


    James989

  3. #16
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    [Note that now, you will NOT surrender 7,7 vs. X or 8,8 vs. X, since the "team" EV is higher with PU than ES for these plays.]
    BB+1 rules, with rider strategy, 25:1 ratio....
    After splitting 7,7 vs. X or 8,8 vs. X, should I stay on 15 or more, when it is not the last hand to be played ?
    Is it also I should stay on 15 or more, after splitting 7,7 vs. A or 8,8 vs. A ?...And how about 12 to 14, stay or hit?

    Thanks

  4. #17


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    Quote Originally Posted by peterlee View Post
    [Note that now, you will NOT surrender 7,7 vs. X or 8,8 vs. X, since the "team" EV is higher with PU than ES for these plays.]
    BB+1 rules, with rider strategy, 25:1 ratio....
    After splitting 7,7 vs. X or 8,8 vs. X, should I stay on 15 or more, when it is not the last hand to be played ?
    Is it also I should stay on 15 or more, after splitting 7,7 vs. A or 8,8 vs. A ?...And how about 12 to 14, stay or hit?

    Thanks
    peterlee,

    The "Rider" strategy tells us only about splits, and in particular, only those splits for which our team has both a small bet and a big bet.

    For all other hands, just play your normal strategy regardless of the amount wagered on that particular hand. This means if you're counting cards, play your 15 vs. A however your CC strategy says. If you're not counting cards, just use B.S.

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand

  5. #18
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dog Hand View Post
    peterlee,

    The "Rider" strategy tells us only about splits, and in particular, only those splits for which our team has both a small bet and a big bet.

    For all other hands, just play your normal strategy regardless of the amount wagered on that particular hand. This means if you're counting cards, play your 15 vs. A however your CC strategy says. If you're not counting cards, just use B.S.

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand
    For a BB+1 game, I split 8,8 aginst T and A, because of the rider stategy. Which suggests that for any amount of the big bet, equal or larger then the small bet, "sPlit Unequal", as in your Code above.

    In this case, 8,8 becomes two hands.
    When dealer get BJ,...
    (a) if my two hands remained unbust, I loss the first hand and tie the second hand.
    (b) if my first hand busted, the second hand losses anyway.
    wizardofodds..... [After splitting 8s against a 10, the player should stand on 15 or more....]

    I don't know how to calculate that EV, here is my try...
    Supposed first hand did not bust, remained on the table.
    Second hand, 8, dealed a 7s, so T,8,8,7 were used.

    8,7 v T, Stand EV=-0.5722(no hole card, BB+1)
    dealer 0.925 chance has no BJ, so EV=0.925*-0.5722=-0.529
    dealer 0.0746 chacne has BJ, it will push the second hand, EV=0
    overall Stand EV=-0.5295

    8,7 v T, Hit EV=-0.5386(no hole card, BB+1)
    dealer 0.925 chance has no BJ, so EV=0.925*-0.5386=-0.49838
    dealer 0.0746 chacne has BJ, the second hand is push if it remained unbust. It losses if it busted, and the busting chance=0.58019, hitting EV=0.0746*0.58019*-1=-0.0433
    overall Hit EV=-0.5417

    Don't know how these number close to the right ones?

    PeterLee

  6. #19


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    Excellent analysis Dog Hand, well done.
    Casino Enemy No.1

  7. #20


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    Quote Originally Posted by peterlee View Post
    For a BB+1 game, I split 8,8 aginst T and A, because of the rider stategy. Which suggests that for any amount of the big bet, equal or larger then the small bet, "sPlit Unequal", as in your Code above.

    In this case, 8,8 becomes two hands.
    When dealer get BJ,...
    (a) if my two hands remained unbust, I loss the first hand and tie the second hand.
    (b) if my first hand busted, the second hand losses anyway.
    wizardofodds..... [After splitting 8s against a 10, the player should stand on 15 or more....]

    I don't know how to calculate that EV, here is my try...
    Supposed first hand did not bust, remained on the table.
    Second hand, 8, dealed a 7s, so T,8,8,7 were used.

    8,7 v T, Stand EV=-0.5722(no hole card, BB+1)
    dealer 0.925 chance has no BJ, so EV=0.925*-0.5722=-0.529
    dealer 0.0746 chacne has BJ, it will push the second hand, EV=0
    overall Stand EV=-0.5295

    8,7 v T, Hit EV=-0.5386(no hole card, BB+1)
    dealer 0.925 chance has no BJ, so EV=0.925*-0.5386=-0.49838
    dealer 0.0746 chacne has BJ, the second hand is push if it remained unbust. It losses if it busted, and the busting chance=0.58019, hitting EV=0.0746*0.58019*-1=-0.0433
    overall Hit EV=-0.5417

    Don't know how these number close to the right ones?

    PeterLee
    PeterLee,

    Ahh... I see now why you're asking this.

    I ASSUME that, on an unequal split, the rider (big) bet goes on the "first" hand, so if the dealer has a BJ, that first-hand rider bet is automatically lost.

    If you could somehow get the rider bet on an unequal split placed on the "second" hand, then it would probably be worthwhile to alter the play of the hands to avoid busting, since if neither busts and the dealer gets a BJ, the rider bet is NOT lost: this would be especially true vs. a dealer's Ace, since the BJ possibility is typically >30% (unless the count is really negative, that is). However, I suspect this option is not readily available for precisely this reason.

    Barring the above paragraph, with a SINGLE unequal split, you should do what I said originally: play the hands however your strategy suggests. Thus, if the strategy says to Stand on 15 vs. X on hand #2 if hand #1 didn't bust, then do so. Note, though, that you would still play the Big Bet hand #1 according to normal B.S. (since playing conservatively would only provide protection for the small hand #2 bet), so you would (probably) hit if that one is 15 vs. X.

    However, if you have a round with MULTIPLE Unequal Splits, you might want to alter your Hand #1 play. For example, you're dealt 8-8 vs. A, you PU, on the first hand you get another 8, and you PU again. Now (counting from 1st base) hands #1 and #2 have rider bets, and hand #3 does not (by the way, I ASSUME this is the order you'd get: I've never played such a game myself where the order of the hands matters). Here, it might be worthwhile to alter the play of hand #1, since if it doesn't bust, it provides some "protection" for the big bet on hand #2. As above, if hand #1 doesn't bust, you'd follow the conservative strategy on hand #2. Assuming hand #2 also doesn't bust, though, the only advantage to using a conservative strategy on hand #3 is the chance to save its small bet in the event of a BJ: hand #3 in this case is not protecting any big bet from a dealer BJ.

    This BB+1 problem is much more intricate than the ones I have studied: in my previous work, the results of one hand of a split had no effect on the other hand(s). Thus, I have couched my replies in conditional terms, since I do not have the results. I would recommend that you work out the rules yourself: you seemed to be on the right track in your above post.

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand

  8. #21
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dog Hand View Post
    PeterLee,

    Ahh... I see now why you're asking this.

    I ASSUME that, on an unequal split, the rider (big) bet goes on the "first" hand, so if the dealer has a BJ, that first-hand rider bet is automatically lost.

    If you could somehow get the rider bet on an unequal split placed on the "second" hand, then it would probably be worthwhile to alter the play of the hands to avoid busting, since if neither busts and the dealer gets a BJ, the rider bet is NOT lost: this would be especially true vs. a dealer's Ace, since the BJ possibility is typically >30% (unless the count is really negative, that is). However, I suspect this option is not readily available for precisely this reason.

    Barring the above paragraph, with a SINGLE unequal split, you should do what I said originally: play the hands however your strategy suggests. Thus, if the strategy says to Stand on 15 vs. X on hand #2 if hand #1 didn't bust, then do so. Note, though, that you would still play the Big Bet hand #1 according to normal B.S. (since playing conservatively would only provide protection for the small hand #2 bet), so you would (probably) hit if that one is 15 vs. X.

    However, if you have a round with MULTIPLE Unequal Splits, you might want to alter your Hand #1 play. For example, you're dealt 8-8 vs. A, you PU, on the first hand you get another 8, and you PU again. Now (counting from 1st base) hands #1 and #2 have rider bets, and hand #3 does not (by the way, I ASSUME this is the order you'd get: I've never played such a game myself where the order of the hands matters). Here, it might be worthwhile to alter the play of hand #1, since if it doesn't bust, it provides some "protection" for the big bet on hand #2. As above, if hand #1 doesn't bust, you'd follow the conservative strategy on hand #2. Assuming hand #2 also doesn't bust, though, the only advantage to using a conservative strategy on hand #3 is the chance to save its small bet in the event of a BJ: hand #3 in this case is not protecting any big bet from a dealer BJ.

    This BB+1 problem is much more intricate than the ones I have studied: in my previous work, the results of one hand of a split had no effect on the other hand(s). Thus, I have couched my replies in conditional terms, since I do not have the results. I would recommend that you work out the rules yourself: you seemed to be on the right track in your above post.

    Hope this helps!

    Dog Hand
    Dog Hand,

    Thanks for the advise, it really helps.
    Yes, I will try to find the right strategy. Just worry I have nowhere to compare the answer.

    Some of the questions needed to be solved...
    Should I stand on 14 > T on hand #2 ?
    Should I stand on 12~16 > A on hand #2 ?
    In what conditions I should stand on 12~16 > T or A on hand #1 ? Such as rider(big bet):small bet = 1:1

    Thanks again.

    PeterLee

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