Developing Strategies for Unusual Games

[Math Demon]

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Mods, I'm not sure whether this thread goes under "Software" or "Advanced Strategies". Please move as needed.



Say you found an unusual game in your local store. What is the approach to define a strategy?


Q1. For example: 6D, S17, 3:2 BJ, DAS, LS, RSA4, with one (1) of each 6,7,8,9 is removed from 6 decks (308 cards remain). You think the casino made a mistake, and this might be positive off-the-top. You look at WizardofOdds.com and there was no mention of it.

How do I find out what the EORs are for Q1? If I can compute the EORs, how do I determine the tags?

Can CVdata be used to generate Basic Strategies for Q1? Can CVData be used to generate indices for Q1? Do I need to supply the tags first?


Q2: Same scenario: 6D, S17, 3:2 BJ, DAS, LS, RSA4, 312 cards except there are side-bets. Your ace and jack of spades are paid X*side-bet, ace and jack of clubs are paid Y*side-bet, ace and jack of different black suits are paid Z*side-bet.

Can CVdata be used to generate strategies for Q2? Can CVData be used to generate when to bet, and how much to bet on the side-bet if you supply the tags from your main count?


* If CVData can do these, can you provide general directions on how to proceed?


Thanks,
MD

[AussiePlayer]

Not sure how much guys are going to want this discussed on a public board, you may have already received some answers by PM. I will try and answer some of the simpler questions (I am only a HiLo player after all ).

Say you found an unusual game in your local store. *What is the approach to define a strategy?

The best book on the subject is of course Exhibit CAA, however, as I'm sure you're aware by now this can be difficult to obtain.

Can CVdata be used to generate Basic Strategies for Q1?

Yes

Can CVData be used to generate indices for Q1?

Yes

Do I need to supply the tags first?

Yes, ideally. Although you could just run a sim with a standard count for a ballpark figure.

Q2: Same scenario: 6D, S17, 3:2 BJ, DAS, LS, RSA4, 312 cards except there are side-bets. Your ace and jack of spades are paid X*side-bet, ace and jack of clubs are paid Y*side-bet, ace and jack of different black suits are paid Z*side-bet.

Can CVdata be used to generate strategies for Q2? Can CVData be used to generate when to bet, and how much to bet on the side-bet if you supply the tags from your main count?

CVData can do amazing things with sidebets, the best advice I can give you is to get in there and play with it. Like team-play sims it takes a lot of practice get used to it!

[Smartpart]

If you're just curious about some deck compositions, icountntrack's combinatorial analyzer will provide you with EVs of decisions with a specific composition. It's posted around here somewhere.

[Math Demon]

If you're just curious about some deck compositions, icountntrack's combinatorial analyzer will provide you with EVs of decisions with a specific composition. It's posted around here somewhere.

It's a helpful tip. Thanks Smartpart.

[Three]

I will try and answer some of the simpler questions (I am only a HiLo player after all ).

Good one Aussie. LOL

[Math Demon]

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CVData can do amazing things with sidebets...

Thanks AussiePlayer. Don't worry. I did NOT post the ACTUAL game details.

I will try and answer some of the simpler questions (I am only a HiLo player after all ).

What can I say, man? I wasn't myself during those days. I was drunk, was on drugs, and was being distracted by four very round humongous .... ... ooops! open forum. Sorry!

[ZenMaster_Flash]

I just open one of my numerous* copies of The Theory of Blackjack, (1999) 6th ed.
The tables of E.O.R. by hand match ups is all that is needed. Accurate results for any
number of decks is done by interpolation between Single Deck and Infinite Deck figures.

* One each by my bedside, in my car, and by my computer.

[MidniteToker]

An interesting book for the computer programmer looking to analyze games: http://www.amazon.com/Casino-Calculu...dp/1466443561/

[James989]

MGP's BJ Combinatorial Analyzer. Click option " Used Forced Shoe"

[Nyne]

For unusual bonuses or side bets, you can figure out the relative importance of each card rank as follows. First, add the bonus or side bet to your sim and run it with a flat bet. Compare the house edge for the side bet with published figures to make sure your numbers agree. This is partly done as a sanity check to make sure you input it into CVData correctly. Next, use the "Use modified shoe" option to remove once ace, and run it again. Repeat by removing one of each rank. If the side bet relies on a specific rank of ten, you may be able to program it to use some other rank, like 9, for this part. I'm not sure how suits are handled when you do this (does the missing card change suits for each new shoe?), but if you have suit specific side bets, perhaps you can make the payoff apply to each suit, but be 25% as big. We aren't concerned about variance properties of the game at this point, just the EV difference created by each single rank card removal. You can subtract the overall EV of each of these 10 sims from your base result and find the difference each rank makes in the side bet EV. This gives you a starting point to start trying some custom counting systems. Using some common sense and experience, you can come up with a counting system that makes sense, and test it out with CVData, but without using a modified shoe (and fixing any changes you made to the side bet itself). Again, just use a flat bet. But this time, you can look at the side bet EV by count and determine if it increases by count as you'd expect. Experiment with different count tags and see if you can find tags with a stronger correlation to the advantage. Look at the advantage and variance by count, and adjust your bets to equal advantage * bankroll * k / variance, or table max, or zero, as appropriate. Running the sim again with these bet sizes will tell you how much you can expect to make from counting the side bet, and you can determine if it's worth your time. You'll still need to make adjustments for the cost of the base BJ game, but this tells you if you've got anything worth pursuing.

This is a long, slow process, and many side bets just aren't worth counting. After repeating this process a few times, you'll get a feel for what kinds of bets you expect to be beatable and which ones are likely to be a waste of time.

I don't think I've said too much here, but if anyone feels this should be edited, please PM me.

[AussiePlayer]

I don't think I've said too much here, but if anyone feels this should be edited, please PM me.

I think you've stated it fairly well without giving anything away, nice post.

[James989]

For Q1 ONLY

Use MGP's combinatorial Analyser, use option " used forced shoe", remove one of each 6,7,8,9 from 6 deck(left 308 cards, modified deck) and get the House Edge, e.

Then,
1) remove one Ace from modified deck(left 307 cards) and get the revised house edge, e1
2)remove one Deuce from modified deck(left 307 cards) and get the revised house edge, e2
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10)remove one Ten from modified deck(left 307 cards) and get the revised house edge, e10

Find the EOR for each card rank, i.e, e-e1, e-e2. . . .e-e10. From here you can get your count tags for each card rank. With these count tags, you can use CVCX to sim your counting system with shoe with 308 cards

Any comments would be much appreciated.

MGP's Analyzer : http://www.blackjackinfo.com/free-bl...l-analyzer.php

[MGP]

My CA actually calculates the EORs. The option to do so is in the results box. You can calculate one at a time or do them all. It'll use the forced shoe as a base. I'm glad to hear people are benefiting from the software.