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Thread: SD Playing two hands

  1. #1


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    SD Playing two hands

    Does Playing two hands increase or decrease your standard deviation per round if playing half your normal bet?

  2. #2


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    Decreases if you bet half. You can bet approximately 75% of your normal bet on 2 hands and keep the same RoR as EV and SD increases.

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    SD increases at 75% normal times 2?

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Preferrd View Post
    SD increases at 75% normal times 2?
    Yes, but since EV also increases (you are betting a total of 50% more money), your risk of ruin remains the same.

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    Quote Originally Posted by Nyne View Post
    Yes, but since EV also increases (you are betting a total of 50% more money), your risk of ruin remains the same.
    This makes no sense to me. I could bet 1000% more money but it would not lower my risk of ruin. And how can EV as a flat percentage of your bet change with the amount you are betting?

    Also, I don't understand how splitting into several bets affects SD. Splitting a normal bet into 2 half bets would be result in a lesser SD? How much more can one bet on two spots before the SD for 2 becomes greater than your normal standard bet?

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    EV as a percentage of your bet remains the same, but EV in dollars is 50% higher if you bet a total of 50% more. Splitting a certain total bet into multiple hands reduces your standard deviation because the hands are not perfectly correlated. You can win one and lose one, win one and push one, lose one and push one, etc. So betting the same amount, split into 2 hands, keeps your EV in dollars the same while reducing your standard deviation and your risk of ruin. If you'd like to split your bet into two hands and keep the same (rather than lower) risk of ruin, you can safely bet 73% (75% is a good estimate) of your single-spot bet on each spot. Your EV in dollars for that hand will be 46% (50%) higher, and your standard deviation will be higher as well, compared to betting a single spot. The higher EV (again, in dollars), and the higher SD in dollars, will offset resulting in the same risk of ruin you started with playing a single hand.

  7. #7


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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    To all the counters that want to be more than a hobbyist:

    Counting is a small part of being a pro. You must learn money management and BR management. Also learn how to avoid certain playing conditions while exploiting others. You must learn casino tolerances and pinch points to have longevity at the desired games. These may be in the form of spread, max bet, session length, session win amount, frequency of visits on the same shifts or all shifts combined, total cumulative win over a length of time, what profitable plays are better not played and how to tell heat from normal casino procedures. Unfortunately most of these vary by casino so there is no one size fits all answer.

    Counting without most of these other skills is almost certain to fail. They are as important as your counting. I am an advocate of advanced counting for those that are capable of doing it but given the choice of advanced counting without these skills and simple counting with these skills, the simple counter who is skilled in these areas will have a much better chance of success.
    Good post Tthree.

  8. #8


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    Quote Originally Posted by Tthree View Post
    To all the counters that want to be more than a hobbyist:

    Counting is a small part of being a pro. You must learn money management and BR management. Also learn how to avoid certain playing conditions while exploiting others. You must learn casino tolerances and pinch points to have longevity at the desired games. These may be in the form of spread, max bet, session length, session win amount, frequency of visits on the same shifts or all shifts combined, total cumulative win over a length of time, what profitable plays are better not played and how to tell heat from normal casino procedures. Unfortunately most of these vary by casino so there is no one size fits all answer.

    Counting without most of these other skills is almost certain to fail. They are as important as your counting. I am an advocate of advanced counting for those that are capable of doing it but given the choice of advanced counting without these skills and simple counting with these skills, the simple counter who is skilled in these areas will have a much better chance of success.
    Point taken. However, it isn't more than a hobby for me at the moment. I don't have the capital to do anything but gamble at a casino so at the moment I am just learning as much as possible about it. The finer points of it are of interest to me because numbers have always been a fascinating subject to me.

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